A breakout season doesn’t always mean becoming an All-Star overnight. Sometimes it is a young guard finally getting 28 minutes instead of 15, a big man staying healthy, or a second-year player receiving enough touches to show what he can really do.
This offseason created several of those situations. Stars and veterans changed teams, while rebuilding franchises like the Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks, and Kings opened more minutes for their young players. Talent is important, but opportunity can change everything when a coaching staff is willing to live with mistakes.
Obviously, the headline names like Cooper Flagg aren’t included because, for example, he already posted more than 21.0 points per game, won Rookie of the Year, and had scoring performances of 49, 51, and 45 points. These are players who still have another clear level to reach, either statistically or in how the rest of the NBA sees them.
10. Rob Dillingham
The offensive talent has always been obvious with Rob Dillingham, but last season was mostly spent waiting for a real opportunity. He finished with 6.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in only 14.9 minutes per game, shooting 39.6% from the field after struggling to find a stable role.
Chicago acquired Dillingham, Leonard Miller, and four second-round picks at the trade deadline, finally giving the young guard more freedom. He closed the season with games of 26 and 25 points, including a final performance of 25 points, five rebounds, five assists, and two steals.
The concerns are still there for the Bulls. Dillingham is 6-foot-2 and around 175 pounds, so bigger guards will attack him defensively, while his shot selection can become pretty wild. He also made only 30.0% from three after joining the Bulls.
Still, rebuilding teams need to take this type of risk. A role around 24 to 26 minutes as Chicago’s main bench scorer could push him toward 13.0 points and 4.0 assists. There will be ugly nights, but there should also be games where Dillingham scores 15 points in five minutes and changes everything.
9. Maxime Raynaud
Finding a productive big man with the No. 42 pick is pretty rare, but the Kings might have done exactly that with Maxime Raynaud. His rookie year ended with 12.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 26.5 minutes, along with 57.1% from the field and an All-Rookie Second Team selection.
The production improved once Sacramento stopped pretending it had a postseason chase and gave the younger players more responsibility. Raynaud put up 17.9 points and 8.5 rebounds across 15 games in March while shooting 59.5% from the field, so this wasn’t only one random strong week.
Domantas Sabonis remains the main question. He is still the established starting center if he stays, but keeping a 30-year-old All-Star after a 22-win season doesn’t completely match the new timeline. Raynaud has enough touch and mobility to share some minutes with Sabonis, although a trade would obviously create the cleaner path.
The efficiency is already strong, so his next jump should come from more shots, improved defense, and consistent double-double production. Something around 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds feels realistic, with an even larger role possible if Sabonis is moved.
8. VJ Edgecombe
Most rookies need time before they can create offense, defend serious NBA scorers, and make decisions with the ball. VJ Edgecombe was already doing all three while producing 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game for the 76ers.
The athleticism was expected, but the playmaking developed much faster than people thought. Edgecombe wasn’t only cutting and running the floor. He handled pick-and-rolls, attacked closeouts, and finished among the top rookies with 1.5 steals per game, showing a much more complete profile.
Jaylen Brown now joins Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, which will probably reduce Edgecombe’s shot volume. That isn’t necessarily bad. Defenses can’t load up on a 20-year-old guard while also trying to contain three established stars, so his opportunities should become easier.
Efficiency is the next step after he shot around 44.0% from the field as a rookie. A season near 18.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and strong perimeter defense would push Edgecombe into the conversation as one of the best young two-way guards in basketball.
7. Donovan Clingan
There isn’t much mystery around Donovan Clingan’s development. He is already huge, protects the rim and rebounds at a level most young centers never reach, posting 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists during his second season.
At 7-foot-2 and around 280 pounds, Clingan controls the paint without needing plays called for him. He sets massive screens, attacks the offensive glass, and shows useful passing instincts near the elbows instead of holding the ball and slowing everything down.
Ja Morant’s arrival with the Trail Blazers should make his offensive role much easier. Morant’s downhill pressure can create lobs, drop-off passes and second-chance opportunities, while Clingan gives him one of the biggest screening and finishing targets in the league.
The jumper only needs to become respectable, not a main weapon. A jump toward 14.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and more than 2.0 blocks would establish Clingan as Portland’s defensive anchor and one of the strongest young big men in the NBA.
6. Bennedict Mathurin
Scoring has never been the problem for Bennedict Mathurin. The real question is whether he can become more complete after finishing last season with 17.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 42.7% from the field.
The Clippers acquired him from the Pacers in the Ivica Zubac trade, giving Mathurin a fresh opportunity after years inside a crowded rotation. James Harden is also gone, although Darius Garland’s arrival means Mathurin won’t have to become the primary creator.
Attacking the basket remains his best skill. He is strong, aggressive, and reaches the free-throw line consistently, but the shooting and passing need to improve. Mathurin has never reached 33.0% from three across a full season, and his assist totals remain low for someone who uses so many possessions.
Simply reaching 21.0 points wouldn’t automatically mean he improved. A more interesting breakout would be around 20.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting at least 35.0% from three. That version could become a legitimate long-term starter instead of only a volume scorer.
5. Jeremiah Fears
The end of Jeremiah Fears’ rookie season looked like a young guard slowly realizing he could take over games. He played all 82 contests, posted 14.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists, then finished the year with consecutive 36-point performances.
Those games came after the Pelicans were already eliminated, so treating them like proof that he is a 25-point scorer would be too much. They still showed that the 19-year-old isn’t scared of having the ball or carrying a major offensive role.
New Orleans needs to prioritize him properly. Dejounte Murray, Jordan Poole and Zion Williamson can all dominate possessions, but the Pelicans aren’t close enough to contention to make Fears spend another season standing around while veterans control everything.
The shooting and decision-making will decide his ceiling. Teams will go under screens until he punishes them, and he needs to slow down without losing his aggression. Around 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists would make Fears the clear lead guard of the rebuild.
4. Zach Edey
Everything with Zach Edey comes back to health. His production was already excellent whenever he played, with 13.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in only 25.8 minutes while shooting 63.3% from the field.
Ankle problems limited him to just 11 appearances, which makes the sample very small, but the physical impact was obvious. At 7-foot-3 and around 305 pounds, Edey sets brutal screens, controls the offensive glass and creates problems that most backup centers simply can’t handle.
Cameron Boozer should be his favorite frontcourt partner because he can shoot, pass, and operate away from the basket. That spacing gives Edey more room inside, although opposing teams will still attack him in high pick-and-rolls and force him to defend away from the rim.
The ankle is more concerning than the tactical fit. If Edey stays healthy and reaches around 28 minutes per game, 16.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks are completely possible. That would make him one of the league’s most productive centers, not only one of its best young ones.
3. Kel’el Ware
The numbers already look like those of a starting center. Kel’el Ware produced 11.1 points and 9.0 rebounds in only 22.2 minutes with the Heat, using his length to finish above the rim, protect the paint and rebound outside his area.
Milwaukee acquired him as one of the main pieces in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. That makes Ware much more than another backup on the roster, even with Myles Turner currently sitting ahead of him in the depth chart.
The Bucks can use both big men together, give Ware 26 to 28 minutes off the bench, or eventually move Turner. His 24-point, 19-rebound, and seven-block performance already showed how crazy the ceiling can look when his effort stays consistent.
That consistency is still the main concern because Ware can dominate one quarter and disappear in the next. Milwaukee has enough time to accept those mistakes. With close to 30 minutes, a season around 15.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and nearly 2.0 blocks feels very reasonable.
2. Cedric Coward
Few players enter next season with a better combination of solid rookie production and a completely open opportunity than Cedric Coward. He finished his first year with 13.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists, earning All-Rookie First Team honors.
The Grizzlies have now moved on from Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., leaving a massive number of shots and possessions available. Coward should start at shooting guard and could become the most important young perimeter player on the roster.
The jumper needs to become more reliable after he finished below league average from three. Getting closer to 36.0% would create easier driving lanes, while more pick-and-roll reps could show whether he is only a complementary wing or a real second offensive option.
A jump toward 18.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists sounds aggressive, but the role is there. Coward isn’t entering next season as a small part of the rotation anymore. Memphis should give him the freedom to see how far he can go.
1. Matas Buzelis
The best breakout candidates normally don’t need to completely reinvent themselves. They only need more responsibility, and that is exactly where Matas Buzelis stands after recording 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across 77 games.
Buzelis shot 46.3% from the field and finished with a 58.6% true shooting percentage even though Chicago’s offense changed direction several times. The Bulls moved several veteran guards around the deadline, which should create more shots and creation opportunities next season.
At 6-foot-8, he can run the floor, finish through contact, attack closeouts, and provide useful rim protection. His handling and decision-making still need work, while stronger rebounding would help him use his size more consistently.
The shooting improvement is what makes the bigger jump possible. With around 34 minutes and 16 to 18 shots per game, Buzelis could reach 21.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and close to 1.5 blocks. That might be enough to push him toward the All-Star conversation if the Bulls are even slightly competitive.
Chicago has spent too many seasons building around veterans with limited ceilings. Next year should be the moment it stops treating Buzelis like a promising piece and starts treating him like the main project.
