A newly published medical study seems to have identified a potential trend that might occur for Achilles tendon ruptures in NBA players, even though the league has pushed back against its conclusions.
The research, published in the Orthopedic Journal of Sports Medicine, examined Achilles tendon ruptures between the 2014-15 season and the 2024-25 season. Researchers analyzed 19 players who suffered Achilles tears and spotted common patterns in their workload leading up to the injuries.
According to The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov, one of the study’s most notable findings is a relationship between increased playing time shortly before an Achilles rupture. Researchers found that players who suffered Achilles tears averaged more minutes over the 10 and 15 games before the injury than they did across the rest of that season.
Specifically, players averaged 29.0 minutes per game during the previous 10 games compared to the season average of 27.4 minutes. During the previous 15 games, they averaged 28.76 minutes per game compared to the same 27.4-minute season average.
Both differences were slightly higher.
The study also showed that veteran players generally have much larger workloads than younger players. Researchers also found a relationship between years of NBA experience and workload measures, including total season minutes played and minutes played in the five games before an Achilles tear.
Younger players, meanwhile, suffered ruptures despite having a lighter workload. But the authors made sure that these findings should not be interpreted as proof that heavier minutes directly cause Achilles injuries.
The researchers described these results as exploratory and hypothesis-generating. The research had several limitations, including a small sample size of 19 injuries, the lack of a healthy control group, and the inability to account for other important factors such as practice workload, explosive movements, regular tendon issues, team strategies, load management strategies, and the intensity of the games.
The study also challenged several common assumptions surrounding Achilles injuries. Researchers found no association between Achilles ruptures and a player’s age, position, role, or schedule congestion, such as back-to-back games or games played over 30 days.
This finding comes after widespread concern during the 2024-25 season when the NBA experienced a record eight in-season Achilles tendon ruptures, including superstars like Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, and Damian Lillard. And that raised questions about player workloads and scheduling.
Despite the publication of the study, Mike Vorkunov pointed out that the NBA might not agree with its central implication.
The NBA itself had its own research, and the NBA’s Director of Sports Medicine, Dr. John DiFiori, said the league had previously reached a different conclusion.
“Over the past year, we have worked to better understand Achilles tendon injuries through a tendon health working group and additional research. While we welcome continued learnings, we believe the recent paper on this topic has important methodological limitations.”
“Our own extensive review of league data to date, conducted with independent epidemiologists and consultants, spanned the 2012-13 season to the present and found no relationship between Achilles tendon injuries and minutes played before injury. We remain committed to advancing research that informs player health, performance, and injury prevention.”
As a result, there are now two opposing viewpoints.
The independent study suggests that players who suffered Achilles ruptures often had short-term spikes in playing time before the injury.
But the authors also made sure to say that these findings do not establish causation. The NBA, meanwhile, said its broader analysis of league data found no relationship between minutes played and Achilles injuries.
But both sides have agreed on one point: more research is needed. Achilles tendon ruptures have become one of the NBA’s most concerning injuries, and understanding the factors behind them remains a major priority.
Whether workload spikes are ultimately proven to play a meaningful role or not, teams and league officials will continue to search for better ways to protect players from one of basketball’s most career-altering injuries.
