In the NBA, there are teams that find luck with drafting players, while other teams end up being disappointed. A prospect's development into a star can absolutely change the trajectory of a franchise, but obviously, not every prospect does so.
A recent Reddit post by the user EGarrett showed how unpredictable the NBA Draft can be. He pointed out that the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Charlotte Hornets both had the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 picks in the NBA Draft from 2006-2013. The Oklahoma City Thunder managed to get three MVPs in Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook, while the Charlotte Hornets drafted Adam Morrison, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller. The Thunder managed to get to the Finals with their core, while the Hornets set a record for the fewest wins in a season.
From 2006 to 2013, both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Charlotte Hornets had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks in the NBA Draft. The Thunder selected three league MVPs and made the Finals. The Hornets selected Adam Morrison, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller and broke the record for fewest wins.
I think this shows just how important drafting is to a team's success. The Thunder (previously the Sonics) and the Hornets (previously the Bobcats) were both 30-win lottery teams in the mid-to-late 2000's and got a similar set of draft picks. But the Thunder ended up with Durant, Westbrook and Harden and the Hornets got two guys who were out of the NBA before their 27th birthday and a 3rd string center.
There's also a lot of luck involved in the NBA Draft though as well. The Hornets managed to land Kemba Walker with a number 9 pick in the same time period, and kept together a very fringe playoff team for a couple years. So it's amazing how swingy the draft can be and how much it affects team's fates.
It is obvious that the NBA Draft requires elite scouting for teams to do well, but it is clear that some luck is involved. The Oklahoma City Thunder are known for their drafting ability, though, and GM Sam Presti clearly has an eye for talent. The same cannot be said for the Charlotte Hornets, though they have been better in recent years, most notably drafting All-Star LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. Many people believe LaMelo Ball is a special talent.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a rebuild currently, and the Charlotte Hornets are also looking to build through the NBA Draft around LaMelo Ball. Hopefully, both teams find success, and we'll see what the future holds for them.