Restricted free agency can be a dangerous game, and that appears to be where Jalen Duren finds himself. The 21-year-old center has yet to reach an agreement with the Detroit Pistons, fueling speculation that he’d be open to a fresh start elsewhere.
There’s nothing wrong with exploring every option, but there is a major problem. Most of those options have disappeared, which is why the talks might be starting to head in the right direction.
Most teams in the NBA have already made their biggest moves of the year, while Detroit has only made cap space-centered moves so far, as they sit with only $136,252,755 in payroll as they continue to try to reach an agreement.
They are also in a position to sign a former All-Star who could bolster the depth chart considerably.
Detroit still controls Duren’s rights, still believes he’s part of its championship core, and still has the financial muscle to offer a contract no rival can touch.
Duren is coming off a season where he posted 19.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.8 BPG on 65.0% FG while making his first All-Star Team and earning a spot on the All-NBA Third Team.
Unless Duren is willing to gamble hundreds of millions of dollars on accepting a one-year $9.6M qualifying offer, the writing is on the wall.
Here are four reasons the center should re-sign with the team that drafted him No. 13 overall and turned him into an All-Star.
1. Accepting The Qualifying Offer Is a Massive Risk
NBA history is full of players who believed another payday was just around the corner. But one injury or underwhelming season can change everything in an instant.
If Duren turns down a long-term extension for four or five years, his only realistic alternative is accepting Detroit’s qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.
On paper, that sounds like being free, but that’s too big a risk to accept.
One knee injury or one season where his numbers dip could see over $100M go down the drain.
When life-changing money is sitting on the table, betting against uncertainty rarely ends well. For Durens’ sake, taking the money is a surefire way to get him moving in the right direction.
He is only 22 years old, so being 26 or 27 by the time his next contract comes up isn’t the worst situation for him.
2. The Market He Was Hoping For Isn’t There Anymore
When free agency opened, Duren had the chance to see what else was out there. The Los Angeles Lakers needed a center, but solved their biggest need by bringing in Walker Kessler.
The Kings were reportedly exploring major roster changes, but a deal involving Domantas Sabonis was never going to cut it for the Pistons.
Both represented potential escape routes if Detroit became uncomfortable matching a massive offer. Not to mention, the Pistons still own matching rights on any offer sheet.
In other words, Detroit has the keys, and that is how the NBA system has been set up.
3. Nobody Can Pay Him As Detroit Can
Detroit didn’t clear salary flexibility by accident. The Pistons made aggressive moves this offseason, creating enough financial room to reward Duren with a contract that could approach $239 million over five years.
No other franchise can offer that fifth season.
The Pistons traded Caris LeVert ($14.8M), Isaiah Stewart (owed $30M over two seasons, including a team option), and Marcus Sasser ($5.2M), which brought them back Taurean Prince ($3.9M), Gary Harris ($3.8M), and also signed John Collins in free agency ($51M over three seasons).
The Pistons also brought back Isaiah Joe ($22.6M over two seasons, including a team option) for two second-round picks in a major steal.
For a player entering the prime of his career, that’s a difference worth tens of millions of dollars.
Sometimes loyalty is rewarded, but the math is not mathing as the saying goes. Duren needs to be aware of the 5th season that could be particularly rewarding.
4. Why Leave a Situation That’s Already Working?
Duren already has a situation that is best for him. Detroit just finished a 60-win season behind one of the league’s youngest and most exciting cores. Cade Cunningham is an All-NBA guard who is one of the best players in the NBA.
Cade averaged 23.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 9.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 0.8 BPG on 46.1% FG and 34.2% 3-PT FG while making the All-Star Team, All-NBA First Team, and finishing 5th in MVP voting.
That is Duren’s point guard, and many bigs who lack offensive go-to moves would dream of that.
Ausar Thompson is emerging as one of the NBA’s elite perimeter defenders. He posted 2.0 SPG and 0.9 BPG while holding a 105.5 DEF RTG before making the All-Defensive First Team and finishing 3rd in Defensive Player of the Year. He is also on track for his own major $162M extension to stay in Detroit.
And right in the middle of it all is Duren.
His presence inside helped earn him his first All-Star selection and All-NBA Third Team honors while cementing himself as one of the franchise’s core pieces.
There are plenty of talented players around the league still searching for stability, and Duren was arguably the second-best player on a team that finished 1st in the Eastern Conference.
Duren also has a chance to prove he is a true star by improving upon his pedestrian playoff averages (10.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG on 51.4% FG), and doing so in Detroit will raise his value immensely by the time his next contract comes up.
