The easiest thing to do in August is look at a depth chart, count the famous names, and decide a team has to be great. The problem is that NBA games aren’t played on a roster graphic, and talent only works when the players stay healthy, understand the hierarchy, and cover each other’s weaknesses over 82 games.
That is why these three teams make me nervous. None of them is bad, and two could absolutely win the title with ease if everything goes right, but the public expectations can crush even the biggest favorites. The 76ers now have four stars, the Heat landed Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Pelicans can list six or seven players who look interesting individually, yet every one of those teams has a structural problem that could become obvious once the season gets messy.
The league usually rewards depth, versatility, and lineups that can thrive with different adjustments as the postseason rolls. These teams have more big names than certainty, so their regular seasons may feel a lot less impressive than the offseason hype.
3. New Orleans Pelicans
There’s obviously zero hype around the Pelicans to begin the 2026-27 season, but they are the perfect team for this discussion because the starting lineup looks much better before anyone asks how the pieces are supposed to work together. Dejounte Murray, Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Jeremiah Fears, and Derik Queen give the Pelicans scoring, defense, passing, and young talent, but this is still a team that went 26-56, finished 11th in the West, and was outscored by 4.5 points per game. They averaged 115.5 points while allowing 120.0, so this wasn’t one small weakness keeping them outside the Play-In. They were bad on both ends for long stretches.
The optimistic case starts with health, which the Pelicans completely lacked last year. There were some high points still, with Williamson logging 62 games and putting up 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 60.0% from the field. Trey Murphy completed a huge breakout with 21.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on 47.0% from the field and 37.9% from three, while Queen had a strong rookie season with 11.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. Murray also returned from his Achilles injury and averaged 16.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists in 14 games.
Those names make the Pelicans feel like a very competitive side, but the spacing issues can get ugly very quickly. Williamson shot 25.0% from three, Murray made 30.6%, Jones finished at 30.9%, and Queen hit 26.1%. If Jones starts because the Pelicans need his defense, they could have four players on the floor whom opponents are comfortable helping off. If Poole starts instead, the spacing improves a little, but the perimeter defense becomes much easier to attack.
Poole also has to prove last season was just one terrible year. He averaged 13.4 points and 3.1 assists while shooting 37.2% from the field and 33.3% from three across 39 games, which is brutal efficiency for a guard whose main value comes from scoring. The Pelicans need the Warriors version who could create quick offense, not another ball-handler taking difficult shots while Murray and Williamson wait for touches.
There is also a role issue around Queen. He is extremely skilled for a young big man, and his 3.7 assists already showed why the Pelicans were excited about him, but his best basketball comes with the ball in the middle of the floor, where he can post, pass, and attack slower defenders. Williamson needs that same space to become unstoppable, and neither player currently forces defenses to respect him outside. The Pelicans can stagger them, but that means their most talented young big man may not close games whenever Zion is healthy.
Murphy is the player who makes everything click because he can shoot, attack closeouts, and defend multiple positions, yet one elite spacer can’t repair an entire lineup by himself. Herb Jones remains one of the league’s best wing defenders, but he averaged only 8.9 points on 38.3% from the field last season, so the Pelicans will constantly be choosing between offense and defense around their stars.
The Pelicans should improve because 26 wins is a very low bar, but I don’t see the playoff-level offense that the names suggest. There are too many players who want the ball, not enough reliable shooting, and they didn’t even have one key addition in free agency. A healthy season could push them toward 35 wins, but this still looks more like an entertaining lottery team than a dangerous West sleeper.
2. Miami Heat
Any team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo has to be a favorite for the crown, especially when Erik Spoelstra is designing the defense. Giannis averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists while shooting 62.4% from the field last season, while Adebayo added 20.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Put Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell around them and the Heat could build the most physical defensive lineup in the East.
That is why the Heat are going to be good. The part I don’t buy is the idea that acquiring Giannis automatically makes them the No. 1 championship favorite.
The Heat went 43-39 and finished 10th in the East last season, even though they played at the league’s fastest pace and ranked second at 120.9 points per game. The offense produced numbers, but the defense finished 22nd in points allowed, and the season still ended in the Play-In. Giannis changes the defensive ceiling immediately, but the Heat also traded Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick in Nate Ament, and several future picks to get Giannis and Bobby Portis, so this isn’t the same roster with a superstar simply added on top. The Heat removed four rotation or developmental pieces and rebuilt a large part of the team in one summer.
The first concern is half-court spacing. Giannis shot 33.3% from three, and Adebayo remains an inside-the-arc player, so every playoff opponent will load the paint and ask the Heat’s guards to beat them. Wiggins shot a career-best 41.4% from three, Tim Hardaway Jr. signed a one-year deal after he hit 40.7% with the Nuggets, and Portis made 45.6%, which looks crazy good, but those percentages don’t fully replace Herro’s movement shooting, sheer volume, and ability to create a three without Giannis first collapsing the defense.
Hardaway is 34 and averaged only 1.4 assists, Portis is a scoring big man rather than a creator, and Wiggins has never been a natural organizer. The Heat have shooters, but their best shooters are finishers, which is different from having a backcourt player who controls the possession and manipulates a set defense.
Mitchell deserves credit because he averaged 9.3 points and 6.5 assists while shooting 49.0% from the field and 39.5% from three, but he still isn’t the type of floor general who can calmly run 25 pick-and-rolls in a playoff game. His best work comes through defense, speed, and quick decisions. Asking him to become the steady offensive brain of a title favorite is a much larger role than his numbers suggest.
That leaves Giannis as the main creator, which can work during the regular season because he creates paint touches almost whenever he wants. The playoffs become different. Teams build walls, switch their best defenders onto him, and turn every possession into a shooting test. Adebayo can facilitate from the elbows, but using him as a hub also means one more non-shooter around Giannis, while putting Portis at center helps the offense and weakens the defense that makes the Heat special.
The bench is another question. Portis is a very good sixth man, but after him, the rotation includes Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, and several guards who haven’t proved they can handle major postseason minutes. The official roster has plenty of bodies, but very few players who can rescue an offense when Giannis sits or when the action breaks down.
The Heat are reportedly prioritizing Klay Thompson if the Mavericks buy him out, which tells the whole story. They know they still need another high-volume shooter around Giannis and Bam. Thompson could help, but depending on a 36-year-old buyout candidate to complete a championship offense isn’t exactly a comfortable position.
The defense could be terrifying, and Spoelstra will find lineups that look much better than they should, so the Heat aren’t dropping out of the title race. I just see a team closer to 48 wins and a difficult second-round matchup than the automatic champion some people are selling. Giannis gives them a chance against anyone, but he doesn’t erase the lack of backcourt steadiness, the thin bench, or the awkward spacing of their best defensive lineup.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
No team looks more ridiculous on paper than the 76ers, period. Tyrese Maxey put up 28.3 points and 6.6 assists, Jaylen Brown posted 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, Joel Embiid still produced 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, and LeBron James added 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists at age 41. The 76ers can put four players on the floor who have recently operated like the main guys, then bring Anfernee Simons and VJ Edgecombe into the same rotation.
That sounds unfair until the games begin and Nick Nurse has to decide whose team this actually is.
Maxey just finished fifth in the league in scoring and needs the ball to use his speed. Brown had a career year as the Celtics’ primary scorer and didn’t leave them to become a fourth option. Embiid works from the post and elbow, slows the pace, and has been the franchise player for a decade. LeBron remains one of the smartest passers ever, but he also needs control of the possession to create at his best. Every player can sacrifice, yet somebody will have to sacrifice much more than the others.
Shaquille O’Neal already raised concern about Maxey becoming the player pushed furthest away from the ball, and that is a fair worry. Maxey is the youngest established star in the group and one of the few players who can pressure the rim with speed, but LeBron will naturally organize the offense, and Brown will need his own touches. Turning Maxey into a spot-up shooter would waste part of what made him a 28.3-point scorer.
Brown may face the strangest adjustment. His 34.7% three-point shooting last season was fine, not elite, and his strongest scoring chances usually start with a drive or a pull-up rather than waiting in the corner. The same is true for LeBron, while Embiid shot 33.3% from three. The 76ers have enough shooting through Maxey, Simons, Dean Wade, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but their four biggest names aren’t a natural five-out group.
The much larger problem is health. Embiid played only 38 games last season and has appeared in 96 games across the past three seasons, while LeBron played 60 games but is entering his 24th season. The 76ers can manage their minutes, but the East standings won’t let up, and the entire championship potential collapses if Embiid isn’t physically ready in May.
The 76ers went 45-37 and finished seventh last season with an average offense and defense. Brown is a major upgrade over the injured version of Paul George, and LeBron on a minimum contract is absurd, but adding stars doesn’t just solve every problem. This team still needs Embiid to anchor the defense, Maxey to accept fewer touches, Brown to defend at an All-NBA level, and LeBron to manage a smaller role without losing rhythm.
Bill Simmons compared the situation to the 2012-13 Lakers, and the comparison is harsh but not crazy. That Lakers team added Dwight Howard and Steve Nash to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, looked like a title favorite in preseason, then finished 45-37 as injuries and fit problems destroyed the plan. They entered the playoffs as the seventh seed and were swept in the first round. The 76ers have more shooting and younger perimeter talent, but the warning is the same: an injury riddled team can’t magically get healthy, or solve the hierarchy and spacing issues magically.
The 76ers could win the championship because their ceiling is obviously massive. They can also spend the season rotating injuries, discussing touches, and trying to discover their best lineup while everyone else expects 60 wins. I wouldn’t be shocked if they finish around 48 wins and enter the playoffs as the most uncomfortable good team in the league.
The 76ers are the clearest example of a team that may look better on paper than it feels on the court. Four stars create incredible possibilities, but they also create different agendas, preferred roles, and an insane amount of pressure. They may eventually figure it out, but I don’t trust the regular season to look nearly as dominant as the roster graphic.
