The San Antonio Spurs were one of the biggest stories of the 2025-26 season because they jumped from a young playoff contender into a 62-20 team, finished second in the West, and reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014. This Spurs squad finished fourth with a 119.6 offensive rating, third with a 111.3 defensive rating, and second with a +8.3 net rating, then survived a seven-game Western Conference Finals against the Thunder before losing 4-1 to the Knicks.
The front office clearly believes this team is championship-ready, because the summer was built around continuity instead of one aggressive move. The Spurs extended Victor Wembanyama for five years and $252.0 million, re-signed Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie and Jordan McLaughlin, added Tobias Harris on a two-year, $31.0 million contract and used the draft to bring in Jayden Quaintance and Tarris Reed Jr.
Still, going from the Finals back to the same scenario next year is usually much harder than making the first run, and I think the Spurs left too many playoff questions untouched. Tobias Harris is good, the young core should improve, and Wembanyama can become even more ridiculous, but the Spurs didn’t add a second elite scorer, didn’t solve the overlap between their guards, and didn’t bring in the type of high-volume shooter who could go toe to toe with the Knicks’ deep shooting.
The Spurs can absolutely win 55 or more games again because their floor is already very high, but the West will have more scouting on their offense, several rivals made much bigger moves, and the Knicks exposed problems that one little signing probably can’t fix. This team is still a title contender, but getting back to the NBA Finals is much tougher than people may think.
The Outside Shooting Problem Is Still There
During the regular season, the offense looked elite for good reasons. The Spurs had multiple ways to create points, played with pace, moved the ball, and let Wembanyama destroy easy defensive coverages. They averaged 119.9 points, 47.0 rebounds, and 28.1 assists while shooting 48.3% from the field and putting up 37.9 three-point attempts every night. The quiet concern was the actual volume and accuracy from deep. They made only 35.9% of those threes, which sat around the middle of the league instead of near the top, as well as their attempts and made threes.
Victor Wembanyama still put up 26.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks in the Finals, yet he shot only 42.3% from the field and 27.3% from three after posting a 62.6% true-shooting percentage during the regular season. The Knicks were comfortable making him work through contact, sending help from weaker shooters, and forcing him into difficult jumpers late in possessions, because the other creators weren’t consistently making threes from the space he created. You can’t ask a 7-foot-4 big man to protect the rim, rebound, create offense, and also repair every broken chance against a championship-level defense.
De’Aaron Fox was underwhelming at 12.8 points and 6.0 assists, while shooting 34.3% from the field and 25.0% from three in the Finals. Stephon Castle put up 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on 37.7% from the field and 30.0% from deep. Both guards can attack the rim, create pressure, and defend, but neither forced the Knicks to stay attached 25 feet from the basket, which let New York shrink the floor without making a real sacrifice.
The Spurs became especially vulnerable once the first drive was stopped. During the regular season, Fox could create separation, Castle could overpower smaller defenders, and Dylan Harper could finish through contact, but all three of those skills need space inside the arc. When the Knicks switched actions, crowded the lane, and trusted their defenders to recover, too many possessions ended with a contested pull-up, a late pass, or Wembanyama catching the ball far from where he wanted it.
That is exactly why Tobias Harris feels more like a rotation upgrade than a true main answer. For the Pistons, he averaged 13.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 46.9% from the field, 36.8% from three, and 86.6% from the free-throw line. His low-turnover style should help a young team avoid some of the messy possessions that hurt them in June. He also averaged 18.1 points and 7.2 rebounds in the playoffs, but his efficiency dropped to 42.5% from the field and 29.2% from three, which isn’t the profile of a shooter who changes a Finals matchup.
Harris can post smaller forwards, attack a closeout, and play either forward spot, so the signing makes sense at roughly $15.5 million per season. The issue is that the Spurs already had several solid forwards who could do a little bit of everything. Julian Champagnie averaged 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while making 38.1% of his 6.2 three-point attempts, set a franchise record with 195 made threes, and was one of their best spacing pieces. Harrison Barnes added 9.9 points while shooting 38.8% from three and returned on a one-year, $8.0 million deal.
Keeping Champagnie was excellent business, and Barnes is still a nice piece as a veteran forward, but adding Harris to that group mostly gives Mitch Johnson another established option instead of a young and unproven offensive weapon. The Spurs still don’t have a true sniper who creates chaos off the ball, and Devin Vassell remains the only guard on the roster who shot above 38.0% from three on serious volume, finishing at 38.4% on 6.4 attempts while averaging 13.9 points.
Even Vassell’s offensive profile comes with questions. His scoring dropped while the Spurs spread possessions between Wembanyama, Fox, Castle, and Harper. He doesn’t need 20 shots every night, but he has to stay involved to remain a respected threat, especially in closing lineups where defenders will naturally help away from Castle or Fox first.
I understand why the Spurs trusted internal development. Castle can climb from 33.2%, and Harper can improve from 34.3%. Hoping two young guards become reliable playoff shooters, though, isn’t the same as actually signing one. The offense was already fourth in the NBA, yet the real goal is creating enough space to beat the best switching and help defenses four times in the postseason. The summer didn’t clearly get them closer to that objective.
The Backcourt Still Has A Very Expensive Question
The Spurs might have the deepest young guard group in the entire league, but depth and clarity are two different things. Fox averaged 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 48.6% from the field, 33.2% from three, and 76.0% from the line. Castle put up 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 1.1 steals on 47.1% from the field and 33.2% from three. Harper added 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in only 22.6 minutes while shooting 50.5% from the field and 34.3% from deep.
Those numbers look great for a 62-win team, especially with Castle still in his second season and Harper coming in as a rookie. The shared problem is that all three players are most dangerous when they have the ball in their hands. Fox needs high screens and an open lane to use his speed. Castle creates advantages through pure power. Harper attacks gaps with his size and touch. Asking any of them to stand in the corner for long stretches lowers the exact skill that made them special in the first place.
The easiest answer on paper is bringing Harper off the bench again so Fox and Castle can start together while the second unit gets a Manu Ginobili-type of creator. Harper already put up 18.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in the Finals, though, and his combination of size, pace, and finishing looked ready for a larger role. Asking the No. 2 pick to stay around 23 minutes for another season could get harder if he keeps outperforming that limited role.
Harper shot 51.5% from the field across the entire playoff run and produced 14.1 points in 26.8 minutes, showing that his regular-season efficiency wasn’t only coming against weaker bench units in low-pressure games. He still made only 33.3% from three in the playoffs, but his ability to get downhill gave the Spurs another creator once Fox or Castle couldn’t really get going.
Fox is the complicated piece because his new salary changes every conversation. He will earn $49.5 million in 2026-27 at the start of a four-year max extension, making him the highest-paid player on the team before Wembanyama’s extension fully kicks in. The Spurs remain publicly committed to him as their franchise point guard, which makes sense after a 62-win season, but that commitment means Fox will start and close even while Castle and Harper keep developing into major creators.
His Finals performance made the tension louder. Fox averaged only 12.8 points, and Game 5 ended with seven points on 3-of-15 shooting and 1-of-8 from three, while Castle also finished that elimination game with six points on 1-of-10 shooting. Fox was dealing with an ankle injury after missing Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, so those five games don’t define his entire level. The Spurs still watched their most expensive guard struggle to separate from defenders or beat them with pull-up shooting on the biggest stage of the year.
The contract itself doesn’t automatically turn Fox into a negative. He controls pace, gets Wembanyama easier touches, and reduces the playmaking burden on Castle. He also recorded 6.2 assists against 2.3 turnovers during the regular season, and the Spurs committed far fewer turnovers in the Western Conference Finals once he returned from the ankle injury. The real issue is more specific. Fox needs to produce like a max guard in playoff half-court offense, not only organize a talented team that can dominate the regular season.
There is also Devin Vassell averaging 13.9 points and making 38.4% from three, plus Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and Harris all fighting for wing and forward minutes. The Spurs can play three guards together because Castle and Harper have size, but a Fox-Castle-Harper lineup contains three players who shot between 33.2% and 34.3% from three. That becomes much easier to defend in the playoffs unless at least two of them make a serious shooting jump.
Castle’s development creates another decision because he already looks like the best long-term defensive partner for Wembanyama. At 6-foot-6, he can defend guards, wings, and some forwards, and his 7.4 assists show he can run the offense without Fox. He also committed 3.2 turnovers per game and averaged 4.0 turnovers in the Finals, so handing him full control right away would create a different kind of risk.
The quiet summer left this entire problem for Mitch Johnson to solve through rotations. A major trade wasn’t required, and moving Fox immediately after reaching the Finals would’ve been a massive overreaction. The Spurs could still have added a specialist whose role was obvious or converted one of their many young assets into a proven two-way wing. Instead, they brought almost everyone back, added another combo forward, and now have to distribute playoff touches among Fox, Castle, Harper, Vassell, and Wembanyama without reducing spacing or development.
The West Didn’t Wait For Them
The biggest reason for confidence around this team is mainly that Wembanyama might already be the best two-way player in the league. He averaged 25.0 points in only 29.2 minutes while shooting 51.2% from the field, 34.9% from three, and 82.7% from the line, then became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year. Any improvement from a 22-year-old with those numbers could raise the Spurs’ ceiling even without another star addition.
His presence also gives San Antonio a margin almost nobody else has. He can erase every shot at the rim, switch onto perimeter players, stretch opposing big men outside the paint, and create free throws through sheer drive pressure. He led the NBA with 3.1 blocks while playing fewer than 30 minutes, and the Spurs had a +682 point differential during his 1,866 regular-season minutes.
The concern is that the rest of the conference didn’t spend the summer waiting for that improvement. The Lakers added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, and Sandro Mamukelashvili around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The Blazers traded for Ja Morant. The Timberwolves replaced Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Mike Conley with LaMelo Ball. Not every move will work perfectly, but several Western Conference teams made aggressive changes while the Spurs’ only established external addition was Harris.
The Lakers addressed defense, shooting, and center depth in one summer. The Blazers added another high-level downhill creator to a team that already pushed the Spurs during the first round, and the Timberwolves completely changed the offensive structure around Anthony Edwards. None of those teams automatically jumped ahead of San Antonio, yet the conference now contains more possible matchups capable of testing their shooting or their defense.
The Thunder remain a massive obstacle even after losing some depth. They pushed the Spurs to seven games and forced them into a physically exhausting series before the Finals even started.
Mitch Johnson deserves major credit for turning a young roster into a 62-win Finals team, and the defensive system will still begin with Wembanyama. The Spurs must preserve the communication, rotations, and discipline that produced a 111.3 defensive rating while also integrating Harris and giving more minutes to Harper. That is possible, but maintaining a top-three defense shouldn’t be taken for granted.
The draft class probably won’t change the 2027 playoffs either. Jayden Quaintance went No. 20, and the Spurs acquired Tarris Reed Jr. at No. 26, giving the organization more long-term frontcourt help. Those picks make sense for development, but late first-round rookies are rarely the players deciding a conference finals series, especially on a roster where even Harper, Carter Bryant and several established veterans already need minutes.
Health is another part of the projection that can’t be ignored. Wembanyama played 64 games, Fox played 72, and Vassell played 67, while the Spurs needed all three plus major growth from Castle and Harper just to reach 62 wins. Wembanyama’s workload was carefully controlled at 29.2 minutes per game, but he climbed to almost 40 minutes in the Finals, and the team became dramatically more dependent on him once the rotation tightened.
The Spurs can manage Wembanyama again during the regular season, yet another long playoff run requires the league’s most unusual body to survive four rounds against physical defenses. Fox’s ankle already changed one postseason, and the seven-game Thunder series left the entire rotation tired before the Finals even started. A deeper regular-season roster helps, but Harris and four rookies don’t automatically solve the health questions.
I still believe the Spurs will be one of the West’s best teams. Their defensive floor is absurd with Wembanyama; Castle can become an All-Star-level guard, and Harper already looked comfortable in the Finals. Harris should help the second unit, Champagnie is a high-value shooter, and Fox is much more likely to shoot better than 34.3% from the field in his next Finals series. The case for another deep run is obvious.
My prediction is that the Spurs finish somewhere between 56 and 60 wins and reach at least the second round, but a return to the Western Conference Finals feels more likely than another Finals appearance. That isn’t disrespect after a 62-win season. It is simply how thin the difference becomes at this level. One bad shooting week, one ankle injury, or one awkward lineup can erase eight months of elite basketball.
