This is not a soft 3-6 matchup. The New York Knicks open their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday, April 18, at Madison Square Garden after finishing 53-29 and locking up the No. 3 seed in the East. The Hawks closed 46-36 and got the No. 6 seed. The Knicks were 30-10 at home. The Hawks were 22-19 on the road.
The Knicks won the season series 2-1, but every game had some tension. That is part of why this matchup feels more dangerous than a normal 3-6 series. The Hawks have been much better late in the season, and their athleticism on the wing gives them a real path to make this ugly.
The Knicks still bring the two best offensive anchors in the series. Jalen Brunson finished the regular season with 26.0 points and 6.8 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns added 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and he played very well in this matchup during the regular season.
The Hawks answer with Jalen Johnson, who put up 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, plus CJ McCollum, who gave them 18.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
This series also brings two teams that finished the regular season in good shape. The Knicks went 12-4 from March 9 to the finish, while the Hawks were one of the hottest teams in the league after the All-Star break. That late push is a big reason the Hawks are a real threat here instead of just a lower seed with decent numbers.
OG Anunoby entered the series with an ankle issue and was listed as questionable in the preview, while Jock Landale is out at the start of the series with a sprained right ankle.
Knicks Analysis For The Series
The best case for the Knicks starts with the full-season profile. They finished 53-29, posted a 120.0 offensive rating, a 113.3 defensive rating, and played at a 96.8 pace, which is one of the slower marks in the league. That is a strong playoff setup because it says they can score efficiently without needing a fast game, and it fits the kind of half-court series they usually want to play.
The offensive edge is big. The Knicks shot 37.3% from three, kept their turnover rate down at 11.8%, and were one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the league with a 29.3% offensive rebound rate. That is a big combination in a playoff matchup. They can score in the half-court, they usually do not waste possessions, and they can create extra chances when the first shot misses.
Jalen Brunson is still the engine, but the matchup problem starts with Towns. Brunson put up 29.3 points and 7.8 assists against the Hawks in the regular season, while Towns went for 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in his two meetings with them. That is the core of the Knicks’ series advantage. Brunson can control the ball and the clock. Towns can punish single coverage inside and drag bigs out of the paint.
There is also a simple style edge for the Knicks. The Hawks want a faster game. The Knicks do not. With that 96.8 pace, they have shown all year that they are comfortable grinding games down, running more half-court offense, and forcing opponents to beat set defense. If the Knicks keep this series in that range, the numbers say they should be in better shape because their offense has been more stable across the full season.
Mitchell Robinson is a big part of the series, even if his box-score totals are not the headline. The Knicks finished with the second-most offensive rebounds in the league and a top-five offensive rebound percentage, which is exactly the kind of pressure point that can wear down a team like the Hawks over a series. If Robinson and the Knicks frontcourt keep extending possessions, the Hawks lose some of the transition game they want.
The concern is that the Hawks can still drag the Knicks into a different kind of game. The Knicks allowed a 54.1 opponent effective field-goal percentage this season, so the defense was good, but not dominant as last year, and the series gets trickier if turnovers start feeding the Hawks’ pace. That is why the formula is clear. The Knicks need to keep the ball, control tempo, make Towns a constant mismatch, and win enough on the glass to keep the series in a half-court game.
Hawks Analysis For The Series
The Hawks come in as the lower seed, but the late-season trend gives them a real case. They were plus-9.7 per 100 possessions after the All-Star break, the fifth-best mark in the league, after sitting at minus-1.3 before the break. That 11-point swing was the biggest post-break improvement by any team in the last 27 years. So this is not just a 46-win team. It is a team that looked a lot stronger late in the season.
The regular-season profile also explains why the Hawks can make this uncomfortable. They finished with a 116.1 offensive rating, a 113.7 defensive rating, and a 2.4 net rating, while playing at a 102.35 pace. That pace gap against the Knicks is massive. It means the Hawks are trying to create a very different kind of series, one with more possessions, more open-floor attacks, and more chances for their wings to use speed and length.
Offensively, the Hawks have efficient numbers behind the style. They posted a 55.4% effective field-goal percentage, led the league with 30.1 assists per game, and kept their turnover percentage at 12.2. That says this is not just a run-and-gun team. The Hawks move the ball, generate decent shot quality, and do not give away too many possessions. In a series against a slower opponent, that blend can stress the defense. If the Hawks speed the game up and move the ball well, they can keep the Knicks from getting set.
Jalen Johnson is at the center of that. His 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists give the Hawks a real point-forward profile, and that matters in this matchup because it lets them attack the Knicks without relying on one small guard dominating the ball. Add Dyson Daniels’ pressure at the point of attack, and the Hawks have a real way to make Brunson work harder than usual just to get the Knicks into offense.
The weak spot is the glass. The Hawks had just a 24.4% offensive rebound percentage this season, well below the Knicks’ number, and that can be a real issue in a playoff series. If the Hawks lose the rebounding battle and don’t score at the first opportunity, they will have a much harder time keeping this series at their pace.
So the Hawks’ path is straightforward, too. They need pace, ball pressure, and enough wing activity to keep the Knicks from getting comfortable. They need Johnson to drive the offense, Daniels and the perimeter defense to bother Brunson, and the ball movement to stay sharp enough that the Knicks cannot just load up on one action. If the series gets fast and loose, the Hawks can absolutely stretch it. If it turns into a slower possession game, the games start leaning back toward the Knicks.
Key Factors
OG Anunoby is a big one for the Knicks because he has to do two jobs in this matchup. He finished the regular season with 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 48.4% from the field and 38.6% from three. The Knicks need his defense on the Hawks’ wings, but they also need his shooting to keep the floor open around Brunson and Towns. If Anunoby is healthy and moving well, he gives the Knicks a lot more balance on both ends.
Mikal Bridges is another swing player because his value in this series is about versatility. He put up 14.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 82 games. The Knicks do not need him to take over games. They need him to defend multiple matchups, keep the ball moving, and punish the Hawks when they overhelp on Brunson or Towns. If Bridges gives them strong two-way minutes, the Knicks become much harder to shake out of rhythm.
Dyson Daniels is an X-factor for the Hawks because he can change the series without needing a big scoring game. He finished the regular season with 11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.0 steals while shooting 51.7% from the field. His main job here is clear: make life hard on Jalen Brunson, pressure the ball, and help speed the game up. If Daniels is active at the point of attack, gets deflections, and turns defense into transition chances, the Hawks have a much better shot of pushing the series their way.
Jonathan Kuminga is another one because he can give them a real lift off the bench. He finished the season with 12.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Kuminga brings speed, strength, and rim pressure, which is important in this matchup against a Knicks team that wants to keep the game under control. If he attacks the paint, runs the floor, and gives the Hawks good bench minutes, he can help swing one of the middle games in the series.
Prediction
The Hawks are good enough to make this series annoying and probably longer than some people expect. They have momentum, they have wing pressure, and they have the kind of pace that can bother a team that prefers control. But the bigger sample still leans Knicks. The Knicks had the better record, the better home mark, the better top-end half-court scorer in Brunson, and the biggest matchup problem in Towns. Over seven games, that is usually enough. I think the Hawks take a couple when the game gets messy and fast, but the Knicks still have more stable answers.
Winner: Knicks in 6
