The Warriors host the Timberwolves at Chase Center on Friday, March 13, at 10:00 PM ET. The Warriors are 32-33 and ninth in the West, while the Timberwolves are 40-26 and sixth. The Warriors are 19-14 at home, and the Timberwolves are 18-14 on the road.
The Warriors last played Tuesday and lost 130-124 in overtime to the Bulls. The Timberwolves last played on Wednesday and got drilled 153-128 by the Clippers. The Timberwolves lead the season series 2-1 after winning 127-120 on Dec. 12 and 108-83 on Jan. 26, while the Warriors took the Jan. 25 meeting 111-85.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is putting up 12.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Kristaps Porzingis has given them 16.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.7 assists.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards is averaging 29.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and Julius Randle is at 21.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
The pressure is obvious on both sides. The Warriors are trying to hold their play-in ground without Stephen Curry, and the Timberwolves need a response after three straight losses.
Injury Report
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
De’Anthony Melton: Questionable (left adductor injury management)
Quinten Post: Questionable (bilateral foot injury management)
Timberwolves
Joan Beringer: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Zyon Pullin: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Enrique Freeman: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Ayo Dosunmu: Questionable (right thumb sprain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The clearest Warriors edge is still the three-point volume. They lead the league at 45.5 three-point attempts per game and make 16.3 per night, while also averaging 29.2 assists. Even without Curry, that profile lets the Warriors still create shot volume in ways that stress a defense over 48 minutes.
That passing matters even more in this matchup because the Timberwolves just got shredded defensively. They gave up 153 points to the Clippers, and their season defensive rating sits at 113.1, while opponents are shooting 36.1% from three against them. If the Warriors can keep the ball hopping and force long closeouts, the openings will be there.
The Warriors also have a style advantage in terms of forcing a shot-profile decision. Their offense is built around quick reads, extra passes, and constant movement, while the Timberwolves are more comfortable when their size can settle into the possession. If the Warriors can pull Rudy Gobert away from the rim and make Randle defend in space, that is the cleanest path to surviving the talent gap. That logic already showed up in the Jan. 25 win, when the Warriors held the Timberwolves to 85 points.
There is also a home-context argument. The Warriors are 19-14 at Chase Center, and they are still a team that can swing games with one hot shooting quarter. Against a Timberwolves team that has lost three straight and just had a defensive collapse, that matters. This is not a game the Warriors have to win with brute force. They have to win it with pace, spacing, and shot volume.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves bring the better full-season team profile. They are scoring 118.6 points per game, own a 118.0 offensive rating, and play at a 100.56 pace. They also rank fifth in three-point percentage at 37.1% and fifth in blocks at 5.6 per game. That is a more complete base than what the Warriors have right now without Curry and Butler.
The rebounding edge is one of the biggest matchup numbers on the board. The Timberwolves are at 44.3 rebounds per game, compared to 43.1 for the Warriors, and Gobert alone gives them 11.3 a night. The Warriors already live on thin margins without their main stars. If the Timberwolves turn this into a one-shot defensive game and own the glass, they can flatten a lot of the Warriors’ three-point math.
And while the Timberwolves have lost three straight, they still lead the season series 2-1 and already have a 25-point win in the matchup. The broader point is simple: when they get to their size, rebounding, and transition pressure, they look like the better team. The Warriors can absolutely shoot themselves into it, but the Timberwolves have more ways to control the game if they defend at a normal level again.
X-Factors
Draymond Green is the Warriors’ biggest swing piece because this game needs his playmaking and defensive organization at the same time. Green is averaging 8.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, and his job here is to quarterback the offense, keep Gobert guessing in help, and make Edwards work on the other end. If Green controls the connective parts of the game, the Warriors get much harder to knock off script.
Quinten Post is the Warriors’ big man most likely to change the geometry of the floor. Post is producing 8.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and this matchup needs his spacing if he is healthy enough to go. If Post hits a couple of early threes and drags Gobert into longer closeouts, the Warriors can create driving lanes they otherwise would not have. If he is limited, the floor gets smaller fast.
Pat Spencer is the other Warriors X-factor because the offense needs a stabilizer when the first action gets blown up. Spencer is averaging 6.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and his role here is to keep the pace clean, avoid empty possessions, and make the simple read against a long defense. If Spencer gives the Warriors steady guard minutes, they have a real chance to keep this from turning into a talent game.
Rudy Gobert is the Timberwolves presence who can decide whether the Warriors get comfortable at all. Gobert is at 10.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, plus 1.6 blocks, and this matchup is built around his ability to own the paint without getting played off the floor by spacing. If Gobert controls the glass and protects the rim without giving away too much on the perimeter, the Timberwolves’ defensive edge gets real.
Jaden McDaniels is the best two-way wing fit for this kind of game. McDaniels is putting up 14.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 44.5% from three. With him, the point is the same every time: he gives the Timberwolves an efficient wing offense and the best perimeter matchup piece against Podziemski and Porzingis actions. If McDaniels plays well, the Timberwolves’ lineup balance looks much cleaner.
Ayo Dosunmu is the other Timberwolves swing piece because he adds guard pressure the team did not have earlier in the year. In 12 games with the Timberwolves, Dosunmu has averaged 11.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. This matchup needs his pace, straight-line drives, and point-of-attack defense against a Warriors group that is thin in the backcourt. If Dosunmu is healthy enough to give them real bench creation, the Timberwolves become much harder to trap into stagnant possessions.
Prediction
I’m taking the Timberwolves. The Warriors still have the shot-volume argument and enough movement to make this tricky, but the Timberwolves have the better size, the better top-end scoring, and the better margin for error in a game where Curry and Butler are both out. They already lead the season series 2-1, they bring a top-five offense, and they should have the edge on the glass and at the rim if they clean up the defense even a little from the Clippers disaster.
Prediction: Timberwolves 117, Warriors 111
