• Rich Paul has said LeBron James was an underdog for eight of his 10 Finals appearances
• Paul said that 2011 and 2012 were the only years James was expected to win a title
• Research shows that this number is accurate, but the years aren’t
LeBron James made the NBA Finals his home for most of his career. He’s currently in the second-longest stretch of his career without a Finals appearance, entering his fourth season since the Lakers 2020 triumph. His agent, Rich Paul, believes that James has been the underdog in eight out of the 10 Finals appearances he’s made.
“At 22 years of age, he took a team to the Finals as the underdog. He’s always the underdog. Every Finals he ever played, outside of 2012 and maybe 2011, for the most part.”
“At 22 years old, [LeBron James] took a team to the Finals… He’s always the underdog. Every Finals he ever played, outside of 2012 and maybe 2011.”
Rich Paul says LeBron has been the underdog in 8 of his 10 Finals appearances 😯
(via @GilsArenaShow)pic.twitter.com/R1TwilfCfU
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) September 5, 2023
James was known for dragging less-than-impressive rosters to the NBA Finals, with the 2007 and 2018 Cavaliers being the biggest examples. But can we verify what Paul said about the odds LeBron has faced in his decade-long tryst with the NBA Finals?
How Many Finals Was LeBron James Favored To Win?
Paul claimed James was an underdog for eight Finals appearances. That isn’t true, but isn’t far from the truth as James was favored to win three out of the 10 Finals appearances he’s made in his career.
Paul already mentioned 2011 and 2012 when James was considered the favorite, but the Heat actually weren’t favored when they were facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2012. While that seems like a ludicrous notion now, at the time there were still doubts about whether LeBron could lead the Heat to a title as OKC had a devastating run through the West to reach the Finals.
James’ Lakers were favorites to beat the Heat in 2020, which isn’t surprising given how that season and the bubble had played out. The 2013 Heat were led by LeBron at his individual peak, so they were on paper favorites to beat the Spurs.
Outside of these three instances, LeBron’s team was given the underdog label in 2007 and 2014 against the Spurs (both losses).
He was an underdog for all four of his Finals matchups with the Warriors, going into the 2015 Finals with an injured roster, beating the greatest team in history in 2016, and then facing the actual greatest team in 2017 and 2018 because they added Kevin Durant. LeBron had no chance in three of the four series losses, with the one win arguably being the greatest Finals win in modern history.
Will Context Around LeBron James’ Finals Change His Legacy?
Paul said what he said to make the world understand the magnitude of what LeBron has achieved by going to the Finals ten times. There’s no comparable player in basketball’s modern history that has achieved something like this. James was carrying subpar rosters to the Finals and the odds from over the years reflect that.
Ultimately, it won’t impact his legacy that much. Most people won’t care to understand the degree of difficulty LeBron had to overcome in the NBA Finals. A number like Michael Jordan’s 6-0 speaks much more than 4-6, so the Finals record will always be held against LeBron.
If James had sealed 2011 in his favor, maybe we’d have a different conversation. At least then the world will be willing to say that James never sold a ring by being unable to deliver. Regardless, James deserves the ultimate credit for even being in a position to participate in 10 NBA Finals.
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