Criticisms of the 65-game rule set by the NBA which makes some players unavailable to receive major awards this season are becoming more prevalent. Joel Embiid is likely shut down for a long time due to knee surgery, which means he will be out of the MVP race. The superstar center is averaging 35.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game this season but won’t qualify if he misses a few weeks at least.
With Embiid knocked off the MVP perch, we have found the players who are ranked highest in the MVP race based on probability this season. With All-Star Weekend upon us shortly, and the second half of the season to start, here are the players ranked by realistic MVP probability right now.
90% Chance
– Nikola Jokic
In the 2023-24 MVP race, Nikola Jokic stands out as the front-runner with a compelling 90% chance of clinching the prestigious award. The recent setback of Joel Embiid, who is out of contention due to knee surgery, has significantly boosted Jokic’s odds. As the reigning MVP and widely regarded as the best player in the NBA last season, Jokic continues to showcase his exceptional skills on the court.
Averaging an impressive 26.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game, he remains a dominant force for the Denver Nuggets. The team’s impressive performance, currently holding the 4th seed in the Western Conference with a 35-16 record, further solidifies Jokic’s MVP candidacy. Notably, the Nuggets rank 4th in defense, highlighting Jokic’s impact on both ends of the floor. Renowned as the best passing big man in the history of the NBA, Jokic’s unique skill set and his ability to contribute defensively make him a formidable candidate for the MVP title for the third time in his career.
70% Chance
– Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo
With a commendable 70% chance of contending for the MVP title, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is right behind Nikola Jokic in the MVP race. Spearheading the number-one-seeded OKC Thunder, Gilgeous-Alexander’s exceptional performance has propelled his team into the limelight. Notably, the Thunder stand at an impressive 4th place in offensive rankings, a testament to the impact SGA has had on the squad.
Averaging an impressive 31.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive prowess is evident, shooting at an impressive 54.8% from the field and 89.1% from the free-throw line. At just 25 years old, he is rapidly establishing himself as a dominant scorer and a key player for the Thunder. If he maintains this trajectory, SGA could not only secure his first major award but also find himself on the All-NBA Team for the second time in his promising career.
Not to be outdone, Giannis Antetokounmpo is right with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in terms of the MVP Race. The Greek Freak is averaging an impressive 31.3 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game for the Bucks team that has championship aspirations. The Bucks are third in the East and have a new coach Doc Rivers, so if Giannis can uplift the team in the second half of the season, he could get a boost in MVP probability. Otherwise, his raw stats and two-way impact make him an All-NBA First-Team candidate and an MVP favorite every season going forward.
30% Chance
– Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton
In the 2023-24 MVP race, a diverse group of players holds a 30% chance of securing the prestigious title, including Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson, and Tyrese Haliburton.
Luka Doncic, a perennial MVP contender, continues to put up incredible numbers this season, showcasing his triple-double threat capabilities. However, the Mavericks’ performance, falling short of teams like the Nuggets, Thunder, or Bucks, may hinder his chances even if the Slovenian is averaging 34.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 9.6 assists per game.
Jayson Tatum, leading the charge for the best team in the NBA, the Celtics, boasts an impressive scoring average of 27.0 points per game on efficient shooting. Despite his individual brilliance, the presence of a strong supporting cast, including Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday, may limit Tatum’s MVP prospects, as other players have more significant responsibilities for their respective teams.
Kevin Durant has had a standout season, contributing significantly to the Suns’ sixth seed with his dominant scoring. His impressive stat line of 28.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game, along with exceptional shooting percentages, positions him as a formidable MVP candidate. However, the presence of another star player, Devin Booker, may impact Durant’s chances.
Jalen Brunson is rapidly ascending in the MVP race, showcasing his value with the 4th-seeded Knicks. Averaging 27.3 points and 6.5 assists per game, Brunson has been a revelation for the franchise, and his impact cannot be ignored, even if he may have deserved an Eastern Conference All-Star starting nod.
Tyrese Haliburton is orchestrating an outstanding season, reminiscent of Steve Nash, leading the number-one offense in the NBA. Averaging 22.6 points and 11.8 assists per game, Haliburton’s exceptional playmaking abilities are evident. However, the team’s overall record may pose a challenge to his MVP aspirations this season, emphasizing the importance of team success in the MVP race.
20% Chance
– Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Edwards
Kawhi Leonard, showing a return to peak form, plays a pivotal role in the Clippers’ success this season. Averaging 24.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, Leonard’s impressive individual performance is somewhat overshadowed by the presence of stars like Paul George and James Harden on his team. The abundance of talent on the Clippers might dilute Leonard’s MVP votes, as other contenders do not share the court with multiple stars.
Donovan Mitchell is steadily gaining momentum in the MVP race, boasting an impressive scoring average of 28.2 points per game. His leadership has propelled the Cavaliers to an impressive 32-16 record, and Mitchell may have the potential to ascend to a higher category as the season progresses.
Devin Booker, though competing for MVP votes with Kevin Durant on the Suns roster, is making a strong case for himself. With a scoring average of 27.8 points per game, Booker is asserting his claim as the premier scoring shooting guard in the NBA. However, Durant’s strong presence may impact the distribution of MVP votes on the Suns.
De’Aaron Fox is putting up remarkable numbers with a stat line of 27.5 points and 5.4 assists per game. Despite his individual excellence, the Kings’ team record (29-19) and Fox’s impact on the team might not match up to those ahead of him in the MVP race.
Anthony Edwards, leading the second-seeded Timberwolves with the number one defense, showcases his talent. However, the presence of formidable teammates in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert might diminish Edwards’ MVP chances, as other contenders face greater responsibilities for their respective teams.
10% Chance
– Joel Embiid, Trae Young, Domantas Sabonis, Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Maxey, Bam Adebayo, Stephen Curry
Joel Embiid, the favorite for most of the season, faces a setback with an untimely injury, ruling him out of the race for a second-straight MVP award and likely his third-straight scoring title. No other player has been affected more with the 65-game rule than Embiid. His absence indefinitely due to knee surgery significantly diminishes his chances, and any potential rule changes or a spectacular return could only marginally boost his 10% chance.
Trae Young consistently produces spectacular numbers, averaging 27.3 points and 10.9 assists per game. However, the Hawks’ subpar performance with a 22-28 record places a cap on Young’s MVP chances, as team success plays a crucial role in the MVP race.
Domantas Sabonis, a dominant inside presence leading the NBA with 13.0 rebounds per game, showcases his impact for the Kings. However, De’Aaron Fox’s slightly higher MVP impact hampers Sabonis’ chances, relegating him to the 10% probability range.
Paolo Banchero, the standout player for the surprising Magic with a solid 27-23 record, made his first All-Star selection and posts an impressive 23.0 points per game. Despite these achievements, the competition is stiff, and Banchero is unlikely to clinch the MVP title this season.
In Joel Embiid’s absence, Tyrese Maxey shoulders significant responsibilities for the Philadelphia 76ers, earning him MVP votes. Averaging 26.2 points per game, Maxey’s numbers may see a boost in the coming weeks and months, contributing to his 10% chance in the MVP race.
Bam Adebayo emerges as one of the most impactful players in the NBA, excelling on both ends and leading the Heat with 20.4 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. His contributions are notable, but the competition makes his chances stand at 10%.
Despite Stephen Curry’s consistent presence in the MVP conversation, the Warriors’ faltering performance with a 22-25 record diminishes his chances. While Curry posts an impressive 28.1 points per game, his third MVP award seems unlikely this season.
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