The Lakers visit the Cavaliers at Rocket Arena on Wednesday, January 28, tipping at 7:00 PM ET.
The Lakers come in 28-17 (5th in the West), while the Cavaliers are 28-20 (5th in the East).
The Lakers just beat the Bulls 129-118 in their last game. The Cavaliers most recently took care of the Magic 114-98. This is the first meeting between these two this season, after the Cavaliers swept the series 2-0 last year.
This is a stars-on-stars night: Luka Doncic is at 33.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and LeBron James is at 22.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists.
On the other side, Donovan Mitchell is at 29.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and Jarrett Allen is at 13.3 points, 7.8 rebounds.
And here’s the spice: this game screams “who survives the shorthanded minutes,” because the injury list is loud on one side, and the Lakers have to win the non-Luka/LeBron minutes without their usual connector.
Injury Report
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Cavaliers
Darius Garland: Out (right great toe sprain)
Evan Mobley: Out (left calf strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery, Jones fracture)
De’Andre Hunter: Probable (right knee soreness)
Sam Merrill: Probable (right hand sprain)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
This is the kind of game where top-end creation matters more than pretty schemes. When you’ve got Luka and LeBron, you can manufacture good shots even when the possession dies. The Lakers are scoring 116.3 points per game on 49.6% from the field, and that efficiency travels.
The obvious opening: the Cavaliers are missing Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, which is a brutal combo to lose at once. Garland is a major organizer, Mobley is the switch-and-clean-up guy. Without them, the Cavaliers’ margin for error shrinks, and it gets harder to survive the “Luka hunting matchups” portion of the night.
Also, I’m circling the paint. The Lakers’ center rotation has been productive, and Deandre Ayton’s 13.4 points and 8.6 rebounds give them a real rim finisher and offensive rebound threat when the offense bogs down. If the Lakers can win the “missed shot, who rebounds it” battle even slightly, that’s extra possessions Luka turns into pain.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers can absolutely flip this if they turn it into a rhythm game. They’re at 119.0 points per game, they move it (28.2 assists per game), and they bomb away at volume with 41.1 threes attempted per game. If the Lakers have one glaring soft spot, it’s that the defense can leak for long stretches.
And while both teams can score, the Cavaliers have been steadier defensively on the season. They’re allowing 116.5 opponent points per game, and their 114.8 defensive rating is meaningfully better than what the Lakers have put on tape overall. If the Cavaliers can force the Lakers into live-ball turnovers and run, that’s how this gets uncomfortable fast.
One more thing: the Cavaliers’ offense is built to punish weak closeouts. If the Lakers help too much on Mitchell, it turns into open threes and quick swings, and suddenly you’re chasing the game instead of controlling it.
X-Factors
Marcus Smart has to set the tone defensively. He’s at 10.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists with 1.3 steals, and his whole job tonight is to make the Cavaliers feel bodies on the perimeter.
Rui Hachimura is the Lakers’ swing shooter in this matchup. He’s putting up 12.5 points and drilling 43.9% from three, and those corner threes become backbreakers when Luka is collapsing the defense.
Jarred Vanderbilt is the chaos lever. He’s at 5.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and his impact isn’t about scoring, it’s about extra possessions and turning loose balls into fast breaks. If the Lakers win the effort stuff on the road, they’re in control.
For the Cavaliers, Jaylon Tyson is a real problem now. He’s at 13.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and he’s scorching at 46.6% from three. If he keeps playing like a real secondary scorer, the Cavaliers can survive the missing creators.
Sam Merrill is the X-factor that can warp the whole floor. He’s at 13.8 points and hitting 45.5% from three, and if he’s active (even limited), the Lakers can’t cheat off him for help. One hot quarter from Merrill changes the math.
And if De’Andre Hunter suits up, the Cavaliers need him to be a physical wing who makes LeBron work. He’s at 13.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and his best value tonight is taking some of the wing defense burden off everyone else.
Prediction
I’m taking the Lakers, mostly because the Cavaliers are missing too much structure with Garland and Mobley out, and I trust Luka and LeBron to close this game with shot quality, even if the defense gets messy.
Prediction: Lakers 123, Cavaliers 117
