The Warriors host the Bulls at Chase Center on Tuesday, March 10, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Warriors are 32-32 and ninth in the West, while the Bulls are 26-38 and 12th in the East. The Warriors are 19-13 at home, and the Bulls are 10-20 on the road.
The Warriors last played last night and lost 119-116 to the Jazz. The Bulls last played Sunday and lost 126-110 to the Kings. These teams have met once this season, and the Warriors won that game 123-91 on December 7.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is putting up 12.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while Draymond Green has given them 8.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.
For the Bulls, Josh Giddey is at 17.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.5 assists, and Matas Buzelis has produced 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists.
This game matters more for the Warriors in the standings, but it is also a good test of whether the Bulls’ offense can hold up on the road against a team that still plays with real pace and pressure at home.
Injury Report
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve injury management)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
Draymond Green: Questionable (left low back injury management)
De’Anthony Melton: Questionable (left adductor soreness)
Gary Payton II: Probable (left ankle impingement)
Quinten Post: Questionable (bilateral foot soreness)
Bulls
Jaden Ivey: Out (left patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Anfernee Simons: Out (left ulnar styloid fracture)
Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe surgery)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Patrick Williams: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Collin Sexton: Questionable (left fibular head contusion)
Matas Buzelis: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Josh Giddey: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Jalen Smith: Probable (left calf strain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have the clearest shot-profile edge in the matchup. They attempt 45.4 threes per game, the most in the league, and they also make 16.3, which is also first. On top of that, they average 29.2 assists per game, one of the best marks in the league. That matters against a Bulls defense allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% from three, because this is exactly the kind of matchup where one pass becomes two, and two becomes an open corner three.
The bigger team context leans the same way. The Warriors own a 115.2 offensive rating, which ranks 15th, and a 114.2 defensive rating, which ranks 13th. The Bulls sit at 113.1 offensively, 24th in the league, and 117.4 defensively, 22nd. That gap is not massive on offense, but it is real on defense, and it becomes more important when the Warriors are at home, and the Bulls have been a weak road team all season.
There is also a turnover path here. The Warriors average 9.9 steals per game and rank near the top of the league in that category, while the Bulls give it away 15.1 times per game. That is a dangerous combination for a Bulls team that wants to play fast and keep the ball moving. If the Warriors can turn even a few of those loose possessions into early offense, they do not need a perfect half-court night to control the scoreboard.
The home split matters too. The Warriors are 19-13 at Chase Center and already beat the Bulls by 32 in the first meeting away. That does not guarantee another blowout, especially with the injuries to their stars, but it does show where the cleanest matchup advantage lives. The Bulls have not defended well enough all season to feel comfortable in a game where the Warriors can get 45-plus threes up again.
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The Bulls’ best counter starts with pace and playmaking. They play at a 101.72 pace, third in the league, and average 28.7 assists per game, sixth. They also score 115.4 points per game. That matters because the Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back and are missing too much shot creation to want this game to become a track meet. If the Bulls can keep the tempo high, they can make the Warriors’ short rotation work much harder than it wants to.
The rebounding and size angle is real too. The Bulls grab 44.8 rebounds per game, compared to 43.0 for the Warriors, who will miss some presence on the glass. With the Warriors already thin and Post questionable, the Bulls have a path to making this a more physical game than the Warriors would prefer. If they can finish possessions and keep the Warriors from generating extra threes through offensive rebounds, the game gets more manageable.
The Bulls can also punish overhelp if the ball moves well enough. They shoot 36.4% from three, which ranks eighth in the league, and make 14.6 threes per game on 40.1 attempts. The Warriors are stronger defensively than the Bulls overall, but they are also missing some perimeter depth, and that matters against a team that can put multiple handlers and shooters into the same possession. If Giddey controls the game and the ball gets out of traps early, the Bulls can keep the Warriors from loading up on one action.
There is also a simple availability angle. The Bulls are not healthy either, but they come in with more of their main offensive structure intact than the Warriors do. The Warriors are without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody, and they may also be missing or limiting Green, Melton, and Post. That is a lot to carry into a game against a team that already wants to push pace and test depth.
X-Factors
De’Anthony Melton is the Warriors’ biggest swing piece if he can go. He is averaging 12.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, plus 1.6 steals, and his role here is bigger than usual because the Warriors need both secondary scoring and point-of-attack defense. If Melton can give them real on-ball offense while also bothering the Bulls’ first action, the Warriors can stay in control even without Curry. If he is limited, too much of the creation burden falls on Podziemski and Green.
Kristaps Porzingis belongs here because he changes the game’s shape on both ends. He has produced 16.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 35.1% from three. In this matchup, his role is to give the Warriors extra frontcourt scoring, stretch the Bulls’ interior defenders away from the rim, and provide weak-side shot blocking when the game gets into second actions. If Porzingis hits early threes and protects the paint, the Warriors get a totally different margin for error.
Collin Sexton is a real pressure point for the Bulls if he is available. In his Bulls minutes this season, he has given them 16.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, and this is the kind of game where his downhill scoring can matter against a thin guard rotation. If Sexton can attack the paint and force the Warriors to collapse, the Bulls can get to their kick-out game. If he is out or clearly limited, the offense gets easier to load up against.
Rob Dillingham gives the Bulls another live-dribble guard against a short-handed Warriors backcourt. Since the trade, Dillingham has put up 6.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in 12 games with the Bulls. In this matchup, his role is to change pace, attack second units, and punish the Warriors if they get too aggressive, pressuring the first action. If Dillingham gives the Bulls real bench creation, they can keep the floor tilted even when the main handlers sit.
Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors. The injuries are serious, and that is what makes this tricky, but the matchup still leans their way because the Bulls have not shown they can consistently defend this kind of three-point volume. The Warriors lead the league in both three-point attempts and makes, they move the ball at a top-tier level, and the Bulls are allowing 119.8 points per game while giving up 36.8% from three. At home, that is enough for me.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Bulls 112
