The 76ers host the Knicks in Game 4 at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Sunday, May 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The situation is clear. The Knicks lead 3-0. The 76ers need one win to keep the series alive. The Knicks need one win to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The series has not been close in total production. The Knicks are averaging 117.7 points, 41.7 rebounds, and 28.0 assists. The 76ers are averaging 98.0 points, 33.3 rebounds, and 19.3 assists. Jalen Brunson leads the series with 31.3 points and 6.0 assists per game. Tyrese Maxey leads the 76ers at only 18.7 points and 5.0 assists. That is the main story. The Knicks’ best guard is controlling games. The 76ers’ best guard has not damaged enough.
Game 3 was another example. The Knicks won 108-94 even without OG Anunoby. Brunson had 33 points and nine assists. Mikal Bridges added 23 points. Landry Shamet scored 15 on 5-of-6 shooting. For the 76ers, Kelly Oubre Jr. had 22 points, Joel Embiid returned with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists, and three blocks, and Paul George scored 15 points in the first quarter but did not score again. The 76ers were outrebounded 49-33.
Injury Report
76ers
No players listed.
Knicks
OG Anunoby: Questionable (right hamstring strain)
Anunoby missed Game 3 with the hamstring injury but was upgraded to questionable for Game 4. He is averaging 21.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks in the playoffs, while shooting 53.8% from three.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers’ only strong advantage is urgency. They are at home and facing elimination. That should change their force level, but effort alone is not enough. They need a different offensive structure.
The Game 4 adjustment starts with Maxey. He had 17 points and seven assists in Game 3, but the first half was too passive. The 76ers cannot have Maxey waiting for the game. He has to attack early, use drag screens, and force Brunson or Bridges to defend before the Knicks set their half-court defense. If Maxey stays at 18 or 19 points again, the 76ers will not have enough offense.
Embiid also has to be better on the glass. His 18 points and three blocks were useful in Game 3, but six rebounds in a game where the 76ers lost the boards by 16 is not enough. The Knicks keep winning second chances and physical possessions. Embiid has to control the defensive glass, or the 76ers will keep giving Brunson extra chances.
The foul and free-throw gap is another point. In Game 3, the Knicks had 32 free throws and the 76ers had 16. Embiid pointed to that after the game, but the cleaner fix is defensive discipline. The 76ers cannot keep reaching late in possessions. Brunson is too good at turning small contact into points.
George is the other correction. His first quarter in Game 3 was excellent. He scored 15 points and shot 6-of-9. After that, he missed all nine of his shots and finished scoreless over the final three quarters. That cannot repeat. The 76ers need George as a second scorer, not only a hot first-quarter option.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have the advantage because they are winning every important layer of the series. They are scoring 19.7 more points per game. They are plus-8.4 on the glass. They are plus-8.7 in assists. That is not one hot shooting night. That is a full series gap.
Brunson is the main reason. He is averaging 31.3 points and 6.0 assists in the series. In Game 3, he scored 33 points and controlled the fourth quarter. When the 76ers cut the lead to four, the Knicks answered with Hart, Bridges, and Brunson scoring on three straight possessions. Brunson then added two more buckets before Bridges’ transition layup pushed the margin to 105-89. That was the game.
The Knicks are also punishing Embiid’s coverage. Brunson is repeatedly hunting Embiid in high ball screens. When Embiid stays in drop, Brunson gets pull-up jumpers. When Embiid switches, Brunson has the speed advantage. In the two games Embiid played in this series, Brunson has averaged 34.0 points on 57.5% shooting. In Game 2, with Embiid out, Brunson had 26 points on 42.9% shooting. That is a real matchup trend.
Bridges has changed the series too. He had 23 points in Game 3 and is averaging 19.3 points on 64/45/100 shooting splits in the series. He also took more defensive responsibility with Anunoby out. That matters for Game 4. If Anunoby returns, the Knicks get another elite wing. If he does not, Bridges has already shown he can carry more of that load.
The Knicks’ rebounding is also a major problem for the 76ers. In Game 3, they won the boards 49-33. Karl-Anthony Towns had only eight points, but still finished with 12 rebounds and seven assists. That is important. The Knicks are not only winning when Towns scores. They are winning with his passing and rebounding too.
X-Factors
Kelly Oubre Jr. is the 76ers’ best Game 4 X-factor. He had 22 points in Game 3 and was their most consistent scorer. The 76ers need rim pressure from him because Maxey and George have not produced enough. If Oubre reaches 18-22 points again, the 76ers can stay close.
VJ Edgecombe has to give more two-way force. He had 11 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in Game 3. Those numbers are solid, but the 76ers need more downhill pressure from him. If Edgecombe only fills space, the Knicks can keep loading up on Maxey and Embiid.
Mitchell Robinson is a key Knicks X-factor. The 76ers tried intentional fouling in Game 3, but Robinson made three of four free throws during that stretch. If he survives that strategy, his screening and offensive rebounding become much harder to remove from the game.
Shamet is another one after Game 3. He scored 15 points on 5-of-6 shooting and gave the Knicks important offense without Anunoby. He will not always shoot like that, but his spacing matters. If the 76ers trap Brunson, Shamet can punish weak-side rotations.
Prediction
The 76ers should be better at home. Maxey should be more aggressive, George should not disappear after one quarter again, and Embiid should have more rhythm in his second game back. But the matchup is bad. The Knicks are deeper, tougher on the glass, and much cleaner late in games.
The 76ers need a near-perfect offensive game to extend the series. The Knicks only need their normal structure: Brunson in control, Bridges making shots, Towns passing from the frontcourt, and enough defense on Maxey. That is more reliable.
Prediction: Knicks 109, 76ers 101
