Game 4 does not need much decoration. The Timberwolves are back at Target Center on Sunday, May 10, at 7:30 p.m. ET, down 2-1 against the Spurs and already close to a dangerous series position. The Spurs won Game 2 by 38 points, then won Game 3 on the road, 115-108. That changed the series. The Timberwolves no longer only need a better game. They need to stop Victor Wembanyama from owning the final minutes.
Wembanyama had 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks in Game 3 on 13-of-18 shooting. He scored 16 points in the fourth quarter and gave the Spurs the late-game control they did not have in Game 1. Anthony Edwards answered with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists, but he scored only five points in the fourth quarter after the Spurs changed coverages and used more pressure from Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle.
The series has already moved hard. The Timberwolves stole Game 1, 104-102. The Spurs answered with a 133-95 blowout in Game 2, then took Game 3, 115-108. The Spurs now have home-court advantage back. Game 4 is the Timberwolves’ chance to make this series normal again. If they lose, the Spurs go home up 3-1.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (right Achilles tendon repair)
Spurs
David Jones Garcia: Out (ankle)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves have one clear advantage: Edwards looked much closer to himself in Game 3. He was limited in the first two games, came off the bench in Game 1, and still needed time to get his legs back. Game 3 was different. He started, played with force, and finished with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists. That is the player the Timberwolves need. Not only a scorer. A pressure point.
The problem is the fourth quarter. Edwards had 27 points through three quarters in Game 3, then only five in the fourth. The Spurs put more size and pressure on him. Vassell and Castle took turns. They crowded his drives earlier and made him take harder shots late. For Game 4, the Timberwolves need more early actions for Edwards before the defense is set. Less isolation. More movement. More screens into the middle.
Naz Reid is another important piece. He had 18 points and nine rebounds in Game 3. That is the right type of production against the Spurs. Reid can pull bigs away from the rim and attack slower closeouts. If he gives the Timberwolves another 16-20 point game, they can keep enough spacing around Edwards.
The Timberwolves also need more from Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels. Edwards was good enough to win Game 3, but the support was not complete. Randle has to be more efficient as a second-side scorer. McDaniels has to make open shots and defend without fouling. The Timberwolves cannot beat this Spurs team with only Edwards creating real pressure.
The first five minutes matter. In Game 3, the Timberwolves missed their first 12 shots and fell behind by 15. They recovered, but that start gave the Spurs control. Game 4 has to begin with better shot quality and stronger rim pressure. The Timberwolves cannot spend another game chasing Wembanyama after giving him early comfort.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the best player in the series right now. That is the main advantage. Wembanyama has changed the matchup on both ends. He had 12 blocks in Game 1, then 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks in Game 3. The Timberwolves are not only defending his scoring. They are also adjusting their own offense because of his rim protection.
Game 3 showed why the Spurs are hard to solve. Wembanyama scored from different zones. He finished at the rim, hit jumpers, got to the free-throw line, and controlled the defensive paint. He went 10-of-12 at the line. That matters because the Timberwolves cannot just foul him and reset. If he keeps making free throws, every late help decision becomes harder.
Castle is the other major factor. He had 13 points and 12 assists in Game 3. That was not empty playmaking. He was plus-17 and helped the Spurs survive when the Timberwolves made their runs. The Spurs do not need him to score 25. They need him to organize, defend Edwards in stretches, and get Wembanyama touches in good spots.
De’Aaron Fox also gives the Spurs a cleaner late-game structure than the Timberwolves have outside Edwards. Fox had 17 points in Game 3. His scoring was not dominant, but his speed still forced defensive attention. If he gives the Spurs more downhill pressure in Game 4, the Timberwolves will have to choose between loading up on Wembanyama or leaving space for Fox.
The Spurs already showed they can win in different ways. They won Game 2 by 38. They won Game 3 by surviving a close game on the road. That is important. The Timberwolves can no longer call Game 2 a one-night problem. The Spurs have won two straight with two different game scripts.
X-Factors
Naz Reid is the Timberwolves’ best X-factor. His Game 3 line was 18 points and nine rebounds. That has to repeat. Reid gives the Timberwolves shooting, size, and a way to attack when Rudy Gobert is not useful offensively. If Reid is quiet, the floor becomes too small around Edwards.
Mike Conley has to control the offense better. The Timberwolves need fewer rushed possessions and fewer empty trips early in the clock. Conley does not need 20 points. He needs to organize the first action, get Edwards moving, and find Reid and Randle before the Spurs load the paint.
Stephon Castle is a major Spurs X-factor because he affects both sides. His 13 points and 12 assists in Game 3 gave the Spurs a second creator. His defense on Edwards late was just as important. If Castle keeps winning those minutes, the Spurs have more balance than the Timberwolves.
Devin Vassell also matters. He had only 13 points in Game 3, but his defense on Edwards was one of the reasons the Spurs won the fourth quarter. If he adds efficient shooting in Game 4, the Spurs will have another strong counter when the Timberwolves send extra help at Wembanyama.
Prediction
The Timberwolves should respond at home. Edwards looked strong in Game 3, and Game 4 should bring more urgency from Randle, McDaniels, and Reid. But the Spurs have the cleaner structure right now. Wembanyama is controlling the series, Castle is giving them real guard play, and the Timberwolves still do not have a stable answer in late-game offense.
The Timberwolves can win if Edwards gets help and they avoid another bad start. I do not trust that enough. The Spurs have been better for two straight games, and Wembanyama gives them the best closing option.
Prediction: Spurs 112, Timberwolves 106
