LeBron James set the NBA’s all-time scoring record last February when he overtook Kareem Abdul-Jabbar‘s record of 38,387 points. James has logged 39,258 total points as of December 19, 2023, which is an incredible feat. It is so incredible that the next player to even come close to breaking this record will need to play excellent basketball at a ridiculously high level.
For someone new to catch up to the points total James has already established, they would need to average 35.0 points for 15.5 seasons while playing at least 75 games each year. Even if we give the player 20 years to reach the tally, they’d have to play as a borderline 30-point scorer for his entire career.
In the modern age of players just not playing as often as they used to, along with a 65-game minimum limit that they need to hit for awards consideration, not many superstars will be able to have seasons of over 75 games consistently. Even if they do, to average over 28 points for 20 seasons or 35 points for 15.5 seasons will not be a child’s task.
James is in Year 21 right now and averaging 25.3 points. He could easily continue averaging that many points for the foreseeable future, with no sign of slowing down right now. Though his durability has been brought under question over the last five years, James has only missed two games out of the 25 that the Lakers have played so far.
With a 65-game requirement for awards consideration, James will likely play at least that many this season to become the first NBA player to make 20 All-NBA Teams.
Could Any Modern Players Take A Crack At Breaking The Record?
We live in an age of inflated scoring, as more players are averaging over 30 points than ever. We have five players averaging over 30 points this season, with six players averaging over 30 last year.
One of the leading candidates is going to be Luka Doncic. Luka has logged a total of 9,805 points from 352 games played over his five-year career. To reach James, he will have to continue at this pace for the next 15 years. Doncic also doesn’t have the durability that prime James had, missing between 10-15 games each season since being drafted. He’s also made it clear he doesn’t intend to hunt the record down.
Trae Young is another regular-season scoring machine who could make a crack at the record. He’s scored a total of 9,561 points from 374 games played, entering the league alongside Doncic. His size may be a major problem when it comes to keeping up his scoring pace later in his career, so it’s unlikely Young can do it despite the great start to his career.
Our final probable pick is the man many have called the best prospect since LeBron, Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama is in his debut season, so his numbers aren’t a good reflection of the player he could become. But if Wembanyama stays healthy for the next 20 years and somehow matches LeBron’s production, he could be in the running.
The safe bet is to assume that this scoring record is safe for at least another generation. But people thought Kareem’s record was unbreakable until LeBron broke it, so we never know what future prospects could do to the NBA.
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