With less than two months before the start of the 2025-26 NBA season, ESPN released its annual Summer Forecast. Among the most striking takeaways was the prediction that two of the league’s most high-profile franchises, the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Lakers could be the biggest fallers this year.
The insiders’ poll placed the Bucks at No. 1 and the Lakers at No. 2 on the list of teams most likely to tumble in the standings. The Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns tied for third, followed by the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers rounding out the top five.
1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Los Angeles Lakers
T-3. Boston Celtics/Phoenix Suns
4. Philadelphia 76ers
5. Indiana Pacers
The Bucks enter the new season in a precarious position. They’ve suffered three straight first-round playoff exits, and this summer brought even more uncertainty. With Damian Lillard waived following an Achilles injury that will sideline him for the entire season, Milwaukee’s backcourt has lost its star power.
In an attempt to regroup, the team signed Myles Turner from Indiana, a solid addition but hardly a blockbuster move that shifts their championship odds. Smart depth pieces have been added, but questions remain about whether the roster has enough talent to compete with the East’s elite.
The bigger storyline, of course, revolves around Giannis Antetokounmpo. For the first time, reports indicated that Giannis was at least open to listening to pitches from other teams. Though trade chatter has cooled in recent weeks, the uncertainty around his future hangs over everything Milwaukee does. Unless the Bucks can give him a legitimate chance to contend, the risk of losing him looms larger than ever.
While the Bucks’ struggles feel predictable, the Lakers’ inclusion at No. 2 raised eyebrows. On paper, the team had a strong offseason. They secured Luka Doncic’s extension, answered the center question, and added key role players to support the star duo of Doncic and LeBron James.
Still, the Western Conference is brutal. Teams like Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Houston, and Denver have retooled with precision. The Lakers, by contrast, have questions about fit and durability.
Most of all, they face the LeBron dilemma. Entering the final year of his contract and approaching age 41, James’ future has been clouded by speculation. Does he retire in purple and gold? Does he chase another contender elsewhere? Or does Los Angeles keep him in hopes of one last playoff run alongside Doncic?
ESPN’s insiders believe that despite the talent on the roster, the Lakers could struggle to rise above the logjam of contenders in the West.
Behind the Bucks and Lakers are other notable names. The Boston Celtics, after failing to defend their title, lost Jayson Tatum to a devastating Achilles injury. A series of cost-cutting moves, trading away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, have left them a shell of their former selves.
The Phoenix Suns moved on from their “Big Three” experiment, with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal gone. Depth is an issue, and expectations are now tempered to fighting for a play-in spot.
The Philadelphia 76ers remain uncertain as Joel Embiid’s health continues to hang over their future, while the Indiana Pacers, fresh off a Finals run, lost Tyrese Haliburton to an Achilles injury and Myles Turner to Milwaukee. Both could find themselves sliding out of the upper tier of the standings.
Every season has its surprises, and ESPN insiders see the Bucks and Lakers as the most vulnerable heading into 2025-26. Whether those predictions come true may depend on two central questions: Can Giannis’ Bucks find enough firepower to contend? And can the Lakers navigate an unforgiving Western Conference while balancing the end of LeBron James’ legendary career?
