The Celtics host the Bucks at TD Garden on Sunday, Feb. 1 at 3:30 PM ET.
The Celtics are 30-18 and sitting in the No. 3 spot in the East. The Bucks are 18-28 and down at No. 12, chasing the Play-In pack with zero margin for error.
The Celtics last played the Kings and smoked them 112-93. The Bucks just lost 109-99 to the Wizards while shorthanded.
These two already played once this season, and the Bucks took it 116-101 at Fiserv Forum, with Kyle Kuzma going for 31. So yeah, the Celtics absolutely want that one back.
For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown is at 29.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and Derrick White is at 17.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists.
For the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is at 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and Kevin Porter Jr. is at 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists.
Why it’s spicy: The Bucks are beginning to listen to offers for Giannis, as he shows up on the injury report as out. That’s the main storyline for the Bucks right now, with tensions at an all-time high.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Out (right calf strain)
Kevin Porter Jr.: Out (right oblique muscle strain)
Taurean Prince: Out (neck surgery)
Gary Harris: Probable (left hamstring soreness)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
This is the cleanest math game ever when Giannis is out. The Celtics score 116.3 points per game and allow 109.7. The Bucks score 111.8 and allow 115.8. That’s a massive gap on both ends.
The Celtics also play the exact style that punishes a leaky defense. They launch 42.5 threes per game and hit 36.8%, and they keep turnovers low at 12.0 per game. So you’re getting a ton of high-volume threes without the “here, have free transition points” mistake spree.
And here’s the revenge side: the Bucks already beat them once. Even without getting dramatic, teams don’t forget a 15-point loss that wasn’t close. If the Celtics come out serious, this can be one of those games that’s basically decided by halftime.
Why The Bucks Have The Advantage
The Bucks’ only real path is shooting and pace control. They’re at 48.1% from the field and 39.0% from three, so if they start hot, they can hang around even without their top guy.
They also pass the ball, 26.3 assists per game, and if the Celtics get lazy with closeouts, the Bucks can generate clean looks all night.
But let’s be real, without Giannis and without Porter Jr., the “who creates a shot when it gets ugly” question is brutal. That’s why their advantage section is basically “make shots early and pray.”
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard has been a weapon this year, 17.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists. If he’s pushing tempo and hitting threes, the Bucks’ defense is going to crack, because they already give up too many clean looks.
Sam Hauser is the spacing cheat code, 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and he’s drilling 40.4% from three. The Bucks can’t survive a game where they have to over-help and still chase him around screens.
Neemias Queta is the possession swing. He’s at 10.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists. If he owns the glass, it takes away the Bucks’ easiest way to steal points, and it lets the Celtics keep firing threes without worrying about the miss turning into a run-out.
For the Bucks, Myles Turner has to be the two-way backbone, 13.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 39.0% from three. If he can stretch the floor and protect the rim, at least the Bucks can make this a “work for every bucket” game.
Bobby Portis is the emotional swing, 13.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and he’s at 45.8% from three. If he wins bench minutes and gets hot, that’s how underdogs steal quarters.
Gary Harris being listed probable matters too, even with the tiny box score line this season. The Bucks need functional perimeter defense and someone who can just be in the right place. If he can go, it helps them survive the Celtics’ volume shooting a little longer.
Prediction
I’m taking the Celtics, and I don’t think it’s close with Giannis truly out. The Bucks already give up 115.8 a night, and asking them to defend 42+ threes without their best player is basically a death sentence. The Celtics’ offense should win the math game, and the Bucks’ late-game shot creation is going to be rough without Giannis and Porter Jr.
Prediction: Celtics 121, Bucks 106
