The Grizzlies host the Raptors at FedExForum on Friday, April 3, at 8:00 PM ET. The Raptors enter at 42-34 and seventh in the East, while the Grizzlies are 25-51 and 11th in the West. The Grizzlies are 13-25 at home, and the Raptors are 21-17 on the road.
The Grizzlies are coming off a 130-119 loss to the Knicks on Wednesday, a game in which they were crushed on the glass 49-20 and gave up 48 first-quarter points. The Raptors also lost their last game that night, falling 123-115 to the Kings after letting the game swing in the second half.
These teams have met once this season, and the Raptors took that game 117-104 on November 2. The bigger story here is where both teams are now.
The Raptors are still fighting to stabilize their play-in position, while the Grizzlies are simply trying to survive with an injury-hit roster and a lot of rotation minutes going to younger pieces.
For the Grizzlies, GG Jackson has produced 12.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, while Cedric Coward has added 13.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
For the Raptors, Scottie Barnes has put up 18.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists while shooting 50.3% from the field, and RJ Barrett has given them 19.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on 49.5% shooting.
The Raptors have the cleaner team profile, but the Grizzlies still play fast enough to make this game uncomfortable if they can keep the possession count high.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right 5th finger surgery recovery)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle and elbow surgery recovery)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Cam Spencer: Out (low back soreness)
Jaylen Wells: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Ty Jerome: Out (left ankle sprain)
Taj Gibson: Doubtful (right foot injury management)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Doubtful (low back soreness)
Raptors
Immanuel Quickley: Out (right foot plantar fasciitis)
Chucky Hepburn: Out (right knee surgery – injury recovery)
Jamison Battle: Questionable (illness)
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The clearest Grizzlies edge is style. They rank sixth in pace at 101.3 possessions per 48 minutes and ninth in assists at 28.1 per game. The Raptors play slower, ranking 21st in pace at 98.6, so the Grizzlies have a real chance to drag this game into a faster, less organized rhythm than the Raptors want.
The Grizzlies also keep shooting. They average 38.7 three-point attempts and 13.7 makes per game while shooting 35.4% from deep. The accuracy is only 20th in the league, but the volume still matters. Against a Raptors team that is only 23rd in three-point percentage, the Grizzlies do not need to win a clean efficiency game if they can create more possessions and more attempts from outside.
Free-throw shooting gives the Grizzlies another possible path. They are at 79.5% from the line, which is a stable source of offense for a team that does not have much margin right now. If they can get the game into a drive, kick, and scramble flow, then the speed and spacing numbers start to matter more than the overall record.
There is also some ball pressure here. The Grizzlies average 8.9 steals per game, and they still have enough activity to make opponents play deeper into the clock than they want. That matters because the Raptors are best when they can string together passes and get into their third or fourth action. If the Grizzlies can disrupt that timing, they at least give themselves a shot to keep this close late.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The stronger overall profile belongs to the Raptors. They are seventh in defensive rating at 113.4 and 13th in net rating at 2.1. The Grizzlies are 22nd in defensive rating at 117.8 and 21st in net rating at minus-4.3. That is a meaningful gap, and it becomes even more important against a team carrying this many injuries into the night.
The Raptors also travel better than the Grizzlies defend at home. The Raptors are 21-17 on the road, while the Grizzlies are just 14-23 at FedExForum. That is a major reason this does not feel like a normal road spot. The home team has not turned the home floor into real protection this season.
The best offensive trait in this matchup is the Raptors’ passing. They rank third in assists at 29.4 per game, and even with only the 17th-ranked offensive rating at 115.5, they usually get to cleaner shots through movement. That is a problem for the Grizzlies because they allow 27.9 opponent assists per game and sit 22nd in defensive rating. If the Raptors move the ball side to side and force weak-side rotations, the Grizzlies’ thin rotation can get stretched out quickly.
The Raptors are not an elite shooting team, ranking 23rd in three-point percentage at 35.0, but they do not need to be perfect from outside here. The Grizzlies rank 23rd in offensive rating at 113.5 and commit 15.1 turnovers per game. That gives the Raptors a simple roadmap. Defend the first action, finish the possession, and make the Grizzlies execute in half-court offense without giving them easy transition points.
X-Factors
For the Grizzlies, Taylor Hendricks is one of the few frontcourt pieces who can help on both ends. He has posted 7.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 0.9 assists while shooting 33.1% from three. In this matchup, his value is not about high usage. It is about spacing the floor, rotating on defense, and giving the Grizzlies a mobile body that can survive some of the Barnes and Barrett pressure. If Hendricks hits open shots, the Grizzlies have a much cleaner offensive shape.
Javon Small might be the Grizzlies’ biggest swing guard in this game. He has produced 9.3 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.1 rebounds in 39 games. That matters because the Grizzlies need someone to settle possessions without killing their pace. If Small can push in transition and still keep the offense connected in the half-court, the Grizzlies have a chance to stay close. If those possessions turn into empty dribbles and rushed jumpers, the game can get away from them fast.
Jamal Shead becomes much more important with Immanuel Quickley out. Shead is averaging 6.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and this matchup puts a lot on his table-setting. If he gets the Raptors into offense early, keeps the ball moving, and avoids empty possessions, the Raptors’ structure should hold. If he struggles to organize the game, the Grizzlies’ pace becomes much more dangerous.
Sandro Mamukelashvili is the other swing piece for the Raptors. He is averaging 11.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 38.5% from three. That kind of frontcourt spacing can be a real problem for a Grizzlies team missing several rotation bigs. If Mamukelashvili scores efficiently off the bench or in spot starts, the Raptors can open the floor and make the Grizzlies defend much more ground than they want.
Prediction
The Grizzlies have enough pace and shot volume to make this uncomfortable for a while, but the Raptors have the cleaner path to control the game. The road record is stronger, the defense is stronger, and the passing profile fits well against a Grizzlies defense that has not held up all year. With the Grizzlies still missing so much creation and depth, the Raptors should be able to win the possession battle over 48 minutes and pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Grizzlies 108, Raptors 116
