The Mavericks host the Cavaliers at American Airlines Center on Friday, March 13, at 7:30 PM ET.
The Cavaliers are 40-26 and fourth in the East, while the Mavericks are 22-44 and 12th in the West. The Mavericks are 14-19 at home, and the Cavaliers are 18-14 on the road.
The Cavaliers last played on Wednesday and lost 128-122 to the Magic. The Mavericks beat the Grizzlies 120-112 to snap an eight-game skid last night.
This is the first meeting of the season, with the rematch set for Sunday.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is averaging 19.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, while Naji Marshall has put up 15.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell is producing 28.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, while James Harden is at 20.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists.
The pressure is different on both sides. The Cavaliers are trying to steady themselves after dropping four of their last seven, and the Mavericks are trying to see whether the last win was an actual response or just one good night in a rough stretch.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
P.J. Washington: Doubtful (left ankle soreness)
Daniel Gafford: Doubtful (rest)
John Poulakidas: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Moussa Cisse: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Naji Marshall: Questionable (left foot soreness)
Caleb Martin: Probable (left finger sprain)
Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen: Out (right knee tendonitis)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Tyrese Proctor: Out (right quadricep strain)
Olivier Sarr: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Sam Merrill: Questionable (left hamstring tightness)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best path starts with size and pressure at the line. They are averaging 44.9 rebounds per game and 25.5 free-throw attempts per game, while the Cavaliers are allowing 114.8 points per game and are still without Jarrett Allen. The cleanest way for the Mavericks to score here is not by trying to win a three-point race. It is by attacking the paint, forcing contact, and making Mobley carry too much interior responsibility.
There is also a recent blueprint the Mavericks can lean on. Against the Grizzlies, they dominated the boards 60-38, grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, and got 22 points and 14 rebounds from Daniel Gafford. Even if Gafford is not fully available, that game showed what this roster still looks like when it wins the possession battle and turns misses into extra offense.
The Cavaliers are the better offense overall, but they are not an elite defensive team this season. Their defensive rating is 114.1, and that leaves room for a team like the Mavericks to stay attached if the game becomes physical and broken up by free throws. That is especially true if P.J. Washington or Marshall can go and give the Mavericks enough frontcourt resistance to keep the game from turning into clean Cavaliers spacing.
The home angle is not overwhelming, but it is still the one small environmental edge the Mavericks have. They are 14-19 at home, which is not good, but the Cavaliers are also in a spot where they need to answer a loss and avoid letting the trip get messy. If the Mavericks can keep the game ugly early and make the Cavaliers play from the paint out instead of the arc in, they at least have a real path to hanging around into the fourth.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers have the cleaner offense by a wide margin. They are scoring 118.8 points per game, own a 118.3 offensive rating, average 28.2 assists, and make 14.5 threes per game. The Mavericks are at 113.1 points per game, a 110.3 offensive rating, 24.9 assists, and only 10.6 made threes. That is the core of the matchup. One team can beat you with spacing, movement, and volume. The other has to work much harder to get to the same number.
The turnover battle leans the same way. The Cavaliers average 8.7 steals per game, while the Mavericks commit 14.8 turnovers. The Cavaliers do not need extra possessions to be dangerous, but they become even harder to handle when Mitchell and Harden can play off live-ball mistakes. If the Mavericks get loose with the ball, they are feeding the exact kind of offense they do not want to face.
The road-home split is another problem for the Mavericks. The Cavaliers are 18-14 away from home, while the Mavericks are 14-19 at home. That is not just a side note. It tells you one team has traveled well enough to trust its identity, while the other has not defended its own floor with much consistency. In a game where the Cavaliers already have the better offensive structure, that split needs to be considered.
The matchup logic also lines up for the Cavaliers’ backcourt creation. Mitchell gives them a primary scorer at 28.3 points per game, and Harden has averaged 20.2 points with 7.8 assists in 12 games with the Cavaliers. Against a Mavericks team that has struggled to contain penetration and is carrying several frontcourt injuries, that should translate into a lot of paint touches and kick-out threes.
X-Factors
Khris Middleton is a real swing piece for the Mavericks because he gives them half-court scoring that is otherwise hard to find on this roster. Since joining the Mavericks, Middleton has averaged 12.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, and he is coming off a 35-point game. If Middleton can keep the defense honest in the midrange and from three, the Mavericks have a way to score when the Cavaliers load up on Flagg.
Max Christie matters because the Mavericks need a wing who can punish help without hijacking possessions. Christie is averaging 12.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists this season, and his role here is simple: make the Cavaliers pay when they collapse toward Flagg or Middleton. If he hits catch-and-shoot threes and attacks closeouts, the Mavericks have a chance to keep the floor balanced. If he is quiet, the offense gets cramped fast.
Keon Ellis is a useful Cavaliers wing because this matchup can turn on guard defense and connective play. Ellis is averaging 6.1 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.8 assists, and 1.2 steals, and his role here is to pressure the ball, keep the Mavericks out of clean initiations, and give the Cavaliers another low-mistake perimeter option. If Ellis wins those minutes, the Cavaliers get sturdier on both ends without needing more usage from the stars.
Dean Wade is the other name that matters because the Cavaliers need his size and discipline with Allen still out. Wade is putting up 5.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and this is the kind of game where his value is bigger than his scoring. If Wade helps Mobley hold the glass, makes the extra pass, and survives the physical possessions, the Cavaliers can keep their offensive edge without giving too much back in the frontcourt battle.
Prediction
I’m taking the Cavaliers. The Mavericks have some real paths to making this uncomfortable, especially if they win the glass and get another strong Middleton night, but the overall gap is still pretty clear. The Cavaliers have the better offense, the better road profile, more reliable shot creation, and a much cleaner three-point attack. If they avoid a sloppy first half, they should have enough spacing and backcourt control to take over this game late.
Prediction: Cavaliers 119, Mavericks 108
