The Pacers host the Knicks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, March 13, at 7:30 PM ET. The Pacers are 15-51 and 15th in the East, while the Knicks are 42-25 and third. The Pacers are 10-23 at home, and the Knicks are 18-16 on the road.
The Pacers last played last night and lost 123-108 to the Suns. The Knicks last played on Wednesday and beat the Jazz 134-117. The season series is tied 1-1. The Knicks won the first meeting 114-113 on December 18, and the Pacers answered with a 137-134 overtime win on February 10.
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has put up 24.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists this season, while Andrew Nembhard has given them 17.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is at 26.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists, and Karl-Anthony Towns has produced 20.0 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
The game now feels like a depth test almost as much as a standings game, because both teams are bringing major front-line injury questions into it.
Injury Report
Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (right Achilles tendon tear)
Johnny Furphy: Out (right ACL tear)
Pascal Siakam: Doubtful (right knee sprain)
Quenton Jackson: Doubtful (right calf soreness)
Ivica Zubac: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Andrew Nembhard: Questionable (low back and neck soreness)
T.J. McConnell: Probable (right hamstring soreness)
Aaron Nesmith: Probable (right ankle injury management)
Obi Toppin: Probable (right foot injury management)
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic core muscle surgery)
Karl-Anthony Towns: Doubtful (bilateral knee soreness)
Josh Hart: Doubtful (left knee soreness)
Jeremy Sochan: Doubtful (illness)
Why The Pacers Have The Advantage
The Pacers’ best path is pace. They are playing at a 101.0 pace, which is one of the fastest marks in the league, and that matters because the Knicks are much more comfortable when the game slows into clean half-court possessions. If the Pacers can push off misses and keep the floor spread, they can force the Knicks into more defensive decisions than the matchup should normally allow.
There is also still enough playmaking in the structure to keep the ball moving. The Pacers average 26.5 assists per game, and Nembhard has had to carry much more lead-guard responsibility with Tyrese Haliburton out all year. That matters here because the Knicks’ defense is good when it can load up on one star, but the Pacers need to make this about second and third actions, not isolation.
Free throws are another real lever. The Pacers are getting 23.5 free-throw attempts per game, and that matters in a game where the shot-creation talent is already thinned by injuries. If the Pacers can turn drives into fouls and keep the scoreboard moving without relying on a huge three-point night, they at least have a workable offensive formula.
The emotional angle is simple too. The Pacers have lost 11 straight and are desperate for anything that looks like a stabilizing win. They already beat the Knicks once in this season series, and Nembhard just scored 23 against the Suns. The record is brutal, but the formula for making this ugly still exists if the remaining healthy guards control tempo and keep the Knicks from owning the glass.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have the much stronger full-season profile. They are scoring 117.2 points per game, own a 119.5 offensive rating that ranks third, and carry a 113.1 defensive rating that ranks seventh. That is the cleanest summary of the matchup. The Knicks are better on both ends, and the gap gets even bigger once you add the Pacers’ injury list.
The shooting profile leans hard their way too. The Knicks are shooting 47.4% from the field and 37.4% from three, both strong marks, while the Pacers are at 45.0% from the field and 34.4% from three. Against a defense allowing basically 120.0 points per game, that difference matters a lot. If the Knicks get to their normal spacing and paint-touch game, the Pacers will struggle to hold up for four quarters.
The rebounding edge is another problem for the Pacers. The Knicks are at 46.1 rebounds per game, while the Pacers sit at 42.2. That matters even more with Towns questionable but still available as a threat, because the Pacers need almost perfect possession control to compensate for the offensive gap. If the Knicks win the glass, the margin can get wide fast.
There is also the defensive matchup logic. The Pacers own a 109.7 offensive rating and a 117.8 defensive rating, and those are losing-team numbers. Even if the Knicks are short on bodies too, they still have more shot creation, more size, and a more reliable defensive base. Unless the Pacers turn this into a pure tempo game, the Knicks should have the cleaner answers possession after possession.
X-Factors
Aaron Nesmith is a real swing piece for the Pacers because he gives them one of the few healthy wings who can play both ends without needing touches called for him. Nesmith is averaging 13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. In this matchup, his role is to hit open threes, run the floor, and make Brunson or Bridges work defensively. If Nesmith gives the Pacers efficient wing offense, they have a better chance of keeping the game from tilting too early.
T.J. McConnell matters because this game could swing on whether the Pacers can survive the non-Nembhard minutes. McConnell has put up 9.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists this season, and his role here is to keep the offense organized, pressure the ball, and steal a few easy baskets with pace. If McConnell can speed the game up without losing control, the Pacers become more annoying to guard than the record suggests.
OG Anunoby is the first Knicks x-factor because this is the kind of matchup where his two-way value can show up in every quarter. Anunoby is producing 16.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists this season. His role here is to defend across positions, punish broken floor possessions, and make the Pacers pay whenever they overhelp toward Brunson. If Anunoby is aggressive early, the Knicks get another scoring lane without needing Towns at full strength.
Mikal Bridges is the other one because the Knicks need a stable secondary scorer on a night when Towns and Hart are both doubtful. Bridges is at 15.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, and his job in this matchup is simple: attack closeouts, hit catch-and-shoot looks, and keep the offense flowing when Brunson gives the ball up. If Bridges gives the Knicks efficient offense on the wing, the Pacers will have a hard time staying attached.
Prediction
I’m taking the Knicks. The Pacers can make this faster than the Knicks want, and they have enough guard play to keep it uncomfortable for stretches, but the overall gap is too big. The Knicks have the third-ranked offense, the seventh-ranked defense, the better rebounding profile, and they are facing a team that has dropped 11 straight and is missing too much top-end creation. If Brunson controls the game the way he usually does, the Knicks should handle this.
Prediction: Knicks 128, Pacers 105
