The Rockets host the Spurs at Toyota Center on Wednesday, January 28, with tip-off set for 8:30 PM CT.
The Spurs come in at 31-15, sitting 2nd in the West, while the Rockets are 28-16 and 4th in the West.
Last time out, the Spurs dropped a 104-95 game against the Pelicans on Sunday. The Rockets, meanwhile, just beat the Grizzlies 108-99 on Monday night behind 33 points from Kevin Durant and 33 points from Alperen Sengun.
These teams already saw each other on January 20, when the Rockets rallied for a 111-106 win, so this is a chance for the Spurs to punch back and even the season series. And it matters because this is straight-up seeding warfare between two teams that look like they’re not going anywhere.
Victor Wembanyama is putting up 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks this season, and Stephon Castle has been a problem with 16.6 points and 7.0 assists per game.
For the Rockets, Durant is still Durant at 26.4 points per game on 51.4% from the field and 40.7% from three, and Sengun is stuffing the box score with 21.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists.
Injury Report
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League – Two-Way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Jeremy Sochan: Questionable (left quad soreness)
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle sprain)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
This matchup starts with the Rockets’ defense and physicality. They’re allowing just 110.5 points per game, and they’re built to make you work for everything, especially if they turn it into a half-court grind.
They also win the math fight in a way that matters. The Rockets are at 37.0% from three this season, while the Spurs sit at 34.8%, and that gap feels even bigger late in games when defenses tighten up and every clean look is gold.
And yeah, the rebounding edge is real. The Rockets are pulling down 49.0 rebounds per game, and their offensive rebounding identity is a constant pressure point. If the Spurs don’t finish possessions, they’re going to get buried in second-chance points.
Last thing, the building hasn’t been friendly to the Spurs. They’ve lost their last six at Toyota Center, and until they flip that script, it’s hard for me to pick them here.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs can absolutely win this if they control tempo and punish switches with skill, not chaos. They’re scoring 117.4 points per game, and when the spacing is right around Wembanyama, the offense can look unfair.
They also protect the ball better than the Rockets. The Spurs average 13.7 turnovers per game, while the Rockets are at 15.6, and that’s the kind of gap that swings road games when you’re trying to survive momentum runs.
And even if Sengun is a monster, Wembanyama changes geometry. He’s not just a rim protector, he’s a “don’t even try it” deterrent, and that can shrink the Rockets’ paint touches when the game gets tight.
If the Spurs get a real Castle game as a driver and decision-maker, plus Fox pushing pace, they can manufacture enough easy points to steal this one.
X-Factors
Devin Vassell is the cleanest swing piece for the Spurs. He’s at 14.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists this season, and if his shooting shows up, it changes how aggressively the Rockets can load up on Wembanyama and the guards.
Keldon Johnson is another big one because he can jack the volume and tilt the game emotionally. He’s giving the Spurs 13.5 points and 5.9 rebounds, and his downhill attacks are how they survive cold stretches.
Julian Champagnie has to hit shots, period. He’s at 11.2 points and 6.2 rebounds, and if he’s a real floor-spacer in this matchup, the Spurs’ offense stops feeling like “one star and prayers” and starts looking like a system.
For the Rockets, Amen Thompson is the chaos engine. He’s putting up 18.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and if he’s living in the paint and making quick reads, the Spurs are going to foul and scramble all night.
Tari Eason is the kind of guy who wrecks your comfort. He’s at 12.0 points and 6.2 rebounds, and his activity can blow up the Spurs’ rhythm, especially if they get loose with the ball.
Reed Sheppard is the sniper variable. He’s averaging 12.9 points and 3.1 assists while hitting 39.6% from three, and if he gets hot, the Spurs’ help rules get punished instantly.
Prediction
I’m riding with the Rockets. They’re at home, they defend at a higher level right now, and the Spurs’ margin gets thin if the threes don’t fall because the Rockets will punish them on the glass and in late-game execution. Give me Durant and Sengun to close it, again.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Spurs 112
