The Mavericks host the Timberwolves at American Airlines Center on Wednesday, January 28 at 8:30 PM ET.
The Timberwolves are 28-19 (sixth in the West), while the Mavericks are 19-27 (11th in the West).
The Timberwolves just smoked the Warriors 108-83 on Monday. The Mavericks, meanwhile, dropped their last one 116-110 to the Lakers on Saturday.
These two already saw each other once, and it wasn’t close, the Timberwolves won 120-96 and lead the season series 1-0.
If Anthony Edwards is out again, it gets spicy fast. He’s averaging 29.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and he’s hitting 41.0% from three. Julius Randle has been the steady engine at 22.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is putting up 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists as a rookie centerpiece, and P.J. Washington is their best secondary pillar at 14.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
This game matters because it’s basically a stress test. The Timberwolves need to stack wins to stay out of the Play-In mess, and the Mavericks are trying to survive nightly with half the roster in bubble wrap.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (left foot, abductor hallucis strain)
Anthony Edwards: Questionable (right foot, injury maintenance)
Leonard Miller: Questionable (low back spasms)
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Cooper Flagg: Questionable (left ankle, injury management)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (illness)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
It starts with consistency on both ends. The Timberwolves are scoring 119.0 points per game while allowing 114.3, and that “win the math” profile is exactly what you want against a shorthanded team.
They’re also the cleaner shot-making team. The Timberwolves are at 48.1% from the field and 37.2% from three, while the Mavericks are sitting at 47.3% overall and just 34.5% from deep. If this turns into a volume three game, the Timberwolves have the edge by a mile.
And the matchup screams “Timberwolves size and depth.” Even if Edwards is limited or sits, they can lean into Randle’s creation (5.4 assists) and keep punching with multiple 15-20 point threats.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ one real weapon here is game script. They’ve been good at home (14-12), and the Timberwolves have been merely solid on the road (12-11). That’s not nothing, especially if Edwards is compromised.
The other thing: necessity creates roles. With Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis out, the Mavericks know exactly where their offense is coming from, Flagg initiations, Washington touches, and a lot of Naji Marshall and Max Christie usage. Sometimes that kind of narrowed identity makes you annoying to play.
And if the Mavericks can keep the Timberwolves from getting comfortable in transition, this can turn into a grind where one hot shooting stretch flips the whole night. That’s the path.
X-Factors
Donte DiVincenzo is the swing piece because he can turn the court into a shooting contest by himself. He’s at 13.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and he’s launching 8.3 threes a night at 38.0%. If his pull-up and relocation threes are falling, the Mavericks’ margin for error disappears instantly.
Jaden McDaniels is the other “quiet killer” type. He’s giving the Timberwolves 14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and he’s drilling 42.3% from three. If he’s the one guarding Flagg for long stretches and still hitting shots, that’s basically game over for the Mavericks’ offense.
Naz Reid is the depth punch that breaks teams. He’s at 14.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, plus he’s a real spacer (39.0% from three). If the Mavericks go smaller to survive, Reid can bully them. If they go bigger, he can drag a big to the perimeter and open lanes for Randle.
For the Mavericks, Naji Marshall has to be the chaos engine. He’s averaging 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and he’s had nights recently where he basically becomes a lead creator by force. If he’s getting downhill and living at the rim, the Mavericks can hang around.
Max Christie is the shooting variance guy. He’s at 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and the Mavericks need his jumper to keep the Timberwolves from loading up on Flagg. If Christie hits early, it changes how the Timberwolves can defend the whole floor.
And Brandon Williams is the “can you survive the non-Flagg minutes?” test. He’s posting 12.4 points and 3.7 assists, and if he can control tempo without coughing the ball up, the Mavericks can avoid those ugly dead stretches where the game gets buried in five minutes.
Prediction
Even with the injury question marks, I’m leaning Timberwolves. They’re the better team by profile, they already smashed this matchup once, and the Mavericks’ margin for error is tiny without Kyrie, Davis, and Lively. If Edwards plays, I think it turns into a comfortable win. If he sits, it’s tighter, but I still trust the Timberwolves’ depth and shot-making more.
Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Mavericks 111
