The Spurs host the Hornets at Frost Bank Center on Saturday, March 14, at 3:30 PM ET.
The Spurs are 48-18 and second in the West, while the Hornets are 34-33 and 10th in the East. The Spurs are 25-7 at home, and the Hornets are 20-16 on the road.
The Spurs last played on Thursday and lost 136-131 to the Nuggets. The Hornets last played on Wednesday and beat the Kings 117-109. The Hornets won the first meeting of the season 111-106 on January 31, so they lead the season series 1-0.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, while De’Aaron Fox is at 19.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 6.5 assists.
For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is putting up 19.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, while Brandon Miller is posting 20.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists.
This is a real measuring-stick game for both sides, because the Spurs have gone 16-2 over their last 18 while the Hornets have won eight of their last 10 and arrive with real momentum of their own.
Injury Report
Spurs
Dylan Harper: Questionable (right calf contusion)
Victor Wembanyama: Questionable (right ankle soreness)
Hornets
Liam McNeeley: Out (left ankle sprain)
Tidjane Salaun: Out (left calf strain)
Ryan Kalkbrenner: Probable (illness)
Coby White: Probable (right heel contusion)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs bring the stronger two-way profile into this matchup. They own an 118.5 offensive rating, which ranks sixth in the league, and a 111.6 defensive rating, which ranks third. Their 7.0 net rating ranks fourth. That is contender-level balance, and it matters against a Hornets team that has been good offensively but still lives in a lower defensive tier.
The rebounding and rim-pressure numbers also tilt toward the Spurs. They are at 46.4 rebounds per game, 25.2 free-throw attempts per game, and 5.4 blocks per game. That is a big deal here because the Hornets have real offensive talent, but the cleanest way to keep them from dictating the game is to own the glass and make every paint touch difficult. If Wembanyama plays, that pressure gets even heavier.
The home split is another major edge. The Spurs are 25-7 at home, and they have already shown lately that they can still create offense even when they are short-handed. Against the Nuggets, they put up 131 points without Wembanyama, with Fox and Stephon Castle both living in the paint. That matters because the Hornets have to defend the first action and the second one, not just survive one star.
There is also a matchup-specific reason to like the Spurs. The Hornets shoot it well, but they sit 15th in defensive rating at 115.1. The Spurs are less dependent on pure jump shooting than most teams in this range because they can score through Fox’s downhill play, Castle’s connective play, and Wembanyama’s size. If the Spurs turn this into a paint-and-free-throw game, they can drag the Hornets away from one of their clearest strengths, which is shotmaking and flow.
Why The Hornets Have The Advantage
The Hornets have become a real offensive team. They own an 118.8 offensive rating, which ranks fourth in the league, and they are shooting 37.9% from three, which ranks third. That matters because the Spurs, for all their defensive growth, still have to make choices when Ball gets two feet in the paint, and Miller or the weak-side shooters are waiting. The Hornets can absolutely score enough to stress this defense.
The form is real, too, not fake hot streak stuff. The Hornets are 8-2 in their last 10, they have won two straight, and they just beat the Kings 117-109 after winning in Portland earlier in the trip. Since Jan. 1, they are 23-11, and when their current starting five play together, they are 22-4. That is why this does not feel like a normal 10-seed road game. This group has actually been winning.
The ball movement gives them another real edge. In the Jan. 31 win over the Spurs, the Hornets had 30 assists and 51 rebounds, which is exactly the kind of game they need again here. If they can keep the ball moving and force the Spurs into long rotations instead of letting them sit on one action, the floor opens up for Miller, Ball, and the side shooters.
And there is a simple pressure point for the Spurs. Wembanyama is questionable after missing the Nuggets game with right ankle soreness. If he is limited or out again, the Hornets gain a lot more freedom attacking the lane and finishing possessions on the glass. That is the swing condition over the whole matchup.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is a major swing piece for the Spurs because this matchup needs another real creator next to Fox. Castle is averaging 16.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and he just posted a 30-point triple-double against the Nuggets. If Castle keeps touching the paint and forcing the Hornets to react to multiple handlers, the Spurs become much harder to load up against.
Harrison Barnes matters because he gives the Spurs steady wing scoring without forcing the offense to stop. Barnes is putting up 10.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and he just returned from the ankle issue with 20 points against the Nuggets. If Barnes hits spot-up threes and punishes help, the Spurs can keep the floor balanced even if Wembanyama is not fully right.
Miles Bridges is a real game-changer because this matchup needs his strength and secondary shot creation. Bridges is averaging 17.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and his role here is to punish smaller defenders, keep the offense flowing when the first action stalls, and give the Hornets another downhill scorer next to LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. If Bridges is efficient getting to his spots, the Hornets have a much better chance to keep pressure on the Spurs’ front line.
Kon Knueppel is the other clear X-factor because he gives the Hornets elite rookie shooting with real volume. Knueppel is posting 19.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 44.0% from three, and this matchup needs exactly that kind of spacing against a Spurs defense that wants to crowd the paint and recover late. If Knueppel gets loose on the perimeter and punishes help, the Hornets can make the Spurs pay for loading up inside.
Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs. The Hornets have been too good lately to dismiss, and their offense is legitimate, but the overall matchup still leans toward the home team. The Spurs have the stronger two-way profile, the better home split, and more ways to win ugly if the shots are not falling. If Wembanyama plays, even at less than 100%, that is enough for me to side with the Spurs’ size, pressure, and late-game margin.
Prediction: Spurs 120, Hornets 114
