In a challenging spot for the visiting side, the Hornets host the Pacers at Spectrum Center on Friday, April 3, at 7:00 PM ET.
The Hornets enter at 41-36 and eighth in the East, while the Pacers are 18-58 and 13th in the conference. The Hornets are 20-19 at home, and the Pacers are 7-31 on the road.
The Pacers are coming off a 145-126 win over the Bulls, a game in which they piled up 49 assists and looked far more connected offensively than their record suggests.
The Hornets are coming in off a 127-107 win over the Suns on Thursday, so this is the second night of a back-to-back for them. The Hornets have still won seven of their last nine, which is why this game matters so much in the play-in race.
These teams have met twice this season and split the series. The Pacers won the first meeting 114-112 on Jan. 8, and the Hornets answered with a 133-109 win on Feb. 26. So this is the rubber match, and it comes with a lot more pressure on the Hornets than on a Pacers team that is already out of the East race.
For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is at 19.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, and Brandon Miller has produced 20.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists.
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has put up 23.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists this season, while Jay Huff has given them 9.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks.
Injury Report
Hornets
Tosan Evbuomwan: Out (G League – On Assignment)
PJ Hall: Out (right ankle fracture)
Liam McNeeley: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Antonio Reeves: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Tidjane Salaun: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Grant Williams: Out (right knee injury)
Moussa Diabate: Questionable (left ankle soreness)
Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (right Achilles tendon tear)
T.J. McConnell: Out (right hamstring soreness)
Andrew Nembhard: Out (cervical and lumbar soreness)
Aaron Nesmith: Out (cervical strain)
Jarace Walker: Out (lower back bruise)
Ivica Zubac: Out (rib fracture)
Johnny Furphy: Out (right knee ACL tear)
Jalen Slawson: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Pascal Siakam: Probable (right knee injury management)
Obi Toppin: Probable (right foot injury management)
Why The Hornets Have The Advantage
The Hornets have a much stronger overall profile. They own a 119.4 offensive rating and a +5.0 net rating, while the Pacers are at 111.1 offensively and 119.0 defensively. That gap is the heart of the matchup. The Hornets have a reliable offensive identity. The Pacers have spent most of the season trying to outscore problems they cannot really hide.
The Hornets also win the possession game in ways that matter here. The Hornets lead the league at 46.2 rebounds per game, they are fourth in three-point attempts at 42.9 per game, and they shoot 37.9% from three. Against a Pacers defense that has allowed 120.7 points per game and carries a 124.5 defensive rating over its last 10, that is a dangerous mix. Ball can create the advantage, Miller can attack the gaps, and the Hornets have enough shooting around them to punish slow rotations.
The context also leans heavily toward the Hornets. They are 41-36, sitting eighth in the East and still fighting for position. The Pacers are 18-58, 13th in the conference, and just 7-31 away from home. Even with the back-to-back factored in, this Hornets side has been the better team for months, and it already showed in the second meeting when the Hornets won by 24.
Why The Pacers Have The Advantage
The Pacers’ best chance is to turn this into a speed game. They play at a 101.0 pace, while the Hornets are down at 98.4, and still move the ball well enough to create early offense when they get stops. That showed up against the Bulls, when the Pacers finished with 49 assists. Against a Hornets team coming in on no rest, that is the script they have to chase from the opening quarter.
There is also a real half-court path if Pascal Siakam controls the matchup. The Hornets’ defense has been solid enough overall at a 114.4 defensive rating, but it is not an elite wall, and the Hornets allow opponents to shoot 35.9% from three. The Pacers are only at 35.6% from deep on the season, yet that is still enough if Siakam forces help and the Pacers turn those touches into kick-out looks for Ben Sheppard, Obi Toppin, and their other spot-up pieces.
The other thing working for the Pacers is that they have scored enough lately to at least make the Hornets work. They hung 135 on the Heat and 145 on the Bulls in two of their last three games, and even with the roster damage, they still sit at 27.5 assists per game for the season. The Pacers are not likely to win a grind game, but if the pace rises and the ball keeps moving, it can get this into a range where the Hornets have to execute late.
X-Factors
Kon Knueppel is the obvious Hornets X-factor because he can tilt the game without needing star usage. He has put up 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists this season, and his shooting is one of the reasons this Hornets squad has become such a serious offensive team. If Knueppel gets clean looks against this Pacers defense, the Hornets can blow the game open with one hot stretch.
Coby White is the other one. He is giving the Hornets 17.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and his bench scoring can punish Indiana’s second unit. That matters in a game where they may need a jolt because of the back-to-back. If White gets downhill and hits enough pull-ups, the Hornets should be able to survive any shaky stretches from the starters.
Obi Toppin is a real swing piece for the Pacers because he gives them frontcourt pace and easy points. He has produced 9.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in 18 games this season. If Toppin runs the floor, finishes quickly, and makes the Hornets guard in transition, the Pacers can keep the game from settling into a clean Hornets possession battle. If he disappears, the Pacers lose one of their few simple scoring outlets.
Ben Sheppard matters for the same reason. He is at 7.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and the value here is mostly in his spacing. The Hornets will load toward Siakam whenever they can, so Sheppard has to make the extra pass matter or hit the catch-and-shoot looks that come from it. If he is a threat, the Pacers’ offense can look organized. If he is not, the floor shrinks fast.
Prediction
The Pacers have a real path if they can run, move the ball, and take advantage of the Hornets’ tired legs, but they have too much offensive balance for this specific matchup. The rebounding edge is massive, the three-point volume is real, and the Pacers’ defense has not been close to good enough, especially lately. The Hornets are simply the better team, and with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller both available, they should have enough shot creation to separate by the second half.
Prediction: Hornets 121, Pacers 112
