The Denver Nuggets’ roster is simply in dire straits currently, even after parting ways with Jonas Valanciunas tonight. They decided to waive the $10 million salary they owed to Valanciunas and take the resulting $2 million hit to the salary cap.
But that is not enough, as the problem boils down to filling five roster spots with just $7.4 million in cap space (if they decide to stretch Valanciunas’ salary) before being in the second apron.
Considering that they are looking to bring back Peyton Watson, who is a restricted free agent and is seeking a contract in the range of $23 million to 25 million per year, the Nuggets are projected to go well beyond that cap.
The 2022-23 NBA champions are also luxury tax repeaters now, having crossed the threshold in three of the last four seasons. Therefore, they will face an even harsher penalty on their tax multiplier. Even if they fill out the rest of the roster with veteran minimum contracts, as repeat offenders, that will be extremely costly.
Hence, it is expected that they will pay nearly $200 million in luxury tax alone, taking their projected roster bill to significantly over $400 million. While most might think that such a bill is nothing for a successful team owner like Stan Kroenke (net worth: $24.3 billion), this roster is objectively not worth that investment anymore.
According to Mile High Sports’ Ryan Blackburn, the projected salary bill alone for the Nuggets in 2026-27 is $236.5 million. Combined with the $2 million dead money hit from Valanciunas, that total moves up to $238.55 million.
“Luxury tax is calculated independently of the aprons, though. The current luxury tax line is $200.43 million, and the Nuggets would have $238.55 million in salaries and additional guarantees. The tax bill isn’t calculated based on the incentives unless they’re reached, though,” wrote Blackburn on X.
“Here’s the kicker: Denver’s a repeater team, so if they simply do what I’ve outlined here, they would be $38.13 million above the luxury tax and have to pay repeater tax penalties. The bill for $38.13 million in salary above the tax comes out to about $217.5 million,” he added.
“So, on top of paying $238.5 million in salaries, the Nuggets would also have to pay $217.5 million in luxury tax. That comes out to a cost of $456 million for the 2026-27 team,” Blackburn concluded his calculations.
Several teams around the league, especially the defending champions over the past three seasons (the Celtics, the Thunder and the Knicks), since the Nuggets won it in 2023, have been making tough and cold decisions with their roster as a result of the second apron and the luxury tax.
They lost to a shorthanded Timberwolves team in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. While Jamal Murray may have earned his first All-Star appearance this season, players like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun only seem like depreciating players over time. They may even look for a sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson.
I do not think this core is worth the risk of investing nearly twice as much as you could be paying. Other than Nikola Jokic and maybe Jamal Murray, the franchise should be looking to move everyone else if needed while keeping their core duo together, potentially until they retire.
The Nuggets are rumored to be gauging the trade market for Cameron Johnson, but the deal will likely have to be a salary dump (taking insufficient returns) so that they can offset this salary cap situation.
Apparently, the time has come for the Nuggets to also break up their core, despite the president, Josh Kroenke, stating his intentions to consider ‘running it back’ with the championship-winning core. It remains to be seen how this impacts their free agency plans as the Nuggets navigate this alarming situation.
