After the Minnesota Timberwolves‘ exit in the Western Conference Finals, the franchise now faces a pivotal offseason filled with difficult decisions. Despite a strong playoff run, the team is staring at major financial constraints that could force it to part ways with several key players. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst addressed this looming dilemma during an appearance on Pardon My Take, stating bluntly:
“I don’t think they can keep this team together. The core they can, but… Julius Randle’s a free agent. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a free agent. Naz Reid is a free agent. He has an opt out, which I’m sure he’s going to take. Ant’s contract is very large… I would be surprised if they were able to re-sign all three guys.”
And the math backs him up.
Julius Randle has a $30 million player option for next season, but the former All-Star is expected to opt out and test the open market, likely seeking a longer-term deal. Randle, who averaged 18.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists this season, has proven himself as a strong secondary scorer and shot-creator.
His physicality and playmaking fit well with Minnesota’s system, but it’s uncertain if the team can afford him moving forward.
Naz Reid, the 2024 Sixth Man of the Year, is also likely to opt out of his $15 million player option. Coming off a stellar season where he averaged 14.2 points and 6.0 rebounds while anchoring the second unit, Reid is expected to command significant interest in free agency, possibly even starter-level money.
For a Timberwolves team already deep into the luxury tax, retaining him would require sacrificing depth elsewhere.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker presents a similar dilemma. He had a breakout campaign as one of the league’s better 3-and-D wings, averaging 9.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while also consistently guarding opposing stars.
As an unrestricted free agent, he will likely garner offers from multiple contenders that could outprice the Timberwolves’ budget.
The root of the issue lies in Minnesota’s financial structure. The Timberwolves are already a second-apron team, meaning they’re well over the salary cap and face the harshest penalties in the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement.
These restrictions limit their flexibility when it comes to mid-level exceptions, aggregating salaries in trades, or even signing replacement players if someone leaves.
Last year, they traded Karl-Anthony Towns not just for fit, but also to duck the repeater tax, a clear sign that ownership is hesitant to spend deep into the tax multiple years in a row.
While the Timberwolves’ front office has done a remarkable job building a competitive team around Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, tough decisions now loom.
The problem is simple but stark: the Timberwolves are already above the second apron and are projected to pay a luxury tax bill of approximately $92 million this season.
Given that the franchise previously traded Karl-Anthony Towns partly to ease their financial burden, there’s little indication they’re willing to shoulder another massive tax hit just to retain a supporting cast.
That financial pressure could lead to a worst-case scenario, all three of Randle, Reid, and Alexander-Walker leaving in free agency.
While Edwards and Gobert remain under contract, losing that much depth would be a massive blow to a team trying to keep pace with Western Conference powerhouses like Oklahoma City and Denver.
The Wolves have shown they can build a contender, but sustaining it in this punitive salary cap environment is another challenge entirely.
As Windhorst said, while Minnesota might retain its core, the pieces around it may soon be wearing different uniforms. The Timberwolves are walking a financial tightrope, and with free agency looming, their next moves will shape the future of this franchise for years to come.
