Why The Miami Heat Can Shock The World And Upset The Denver Nuggets In The Finals

The Miami Heat have already done the unthinkable and qualified for the NBA Finals. Nobody thought the Heat would escape even the first round, let alone win the Eastern Conference, but this incredible run is on its final stop. The NBA Finals against heavy favorites, the Denver Nuggets. 

The Heat have found a way to shock people and win every series they’ve been a part of. They beat two pre-playoff title favorites in the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. The Nuggets are really the only major contender that actually defended the one seed all the way to the Finals. Can Miami use their magic to pull one more series win out of the bag and take the NBA Championship home?

It won’t be easy, but there are a few keys to success for Miami as they look to become the first eighth seed in league history to list the Larry O’Brien trophy.

1) Jimmy Butler Reaches Another Level Offensively

Jimmy Butler has been one of the best players in the league throughout this playoff run. He was the architect of the series win over the Bucks, averaging 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in that series. Unfortunately, Butler picked up an injury in the second round and has clearly not looked like the same offensive threat he was in the first round. He averaged 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists against the Celtics on 42.0% from the field and 34.8% from three. Big performances from players like Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin were just as important in that win, with many arguing Martin should’ve won Conference Finals MVP.

We need to see the Butler from the first round if Miami wants to beat Denver. The Bucks were an incredible force as a team throughout the season, and Butler himself was responsible for carving them up and helping the Heat succeed. If he can’t find that version of himself, and the Heat ends up being without Tyler Herro for the entire series, there will be no consistent scoring. Herro is presumed to return around Game 3 of the series, but his involvement is likely going to be limited. We know Butler can turn it up a notch in the Finals, given how he performed in 2020. Can we see that again this year?

2) Bam Adebayo Could Slow Down Nikola Jokic 

Bam Adebayo has long been considered one of the best defenders in the NBA, being named to All-Defensive teams while also being in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Even though his offense has been inconsistent throughout this playoff run, he’s been the primary stopper for the Heat, even switching onto the perimeter and limiting guards effectively. He’s excelled as a help defender, but the responsibility of taming the Serbian wrecking ball, Nikola Jokic, will fall on Adebayo.

Adebayo puts pressure on offensive players and puts them in uncomfortable positions, capitalizing on them in any way he can. He is shorter than Jokic, so that will be a challenge, but Adebayo will need to find a way to limit Jokic’s production. We just saw Anthony Davis fail to do so because of his role as a help defender in a traditional defensive setup where he was the drop man in the post and would guard Jokic if he came into his zone. The Heat play a zone defense as well, but Adebayo needs to hold himself responsible for stopping Jokic from carving them up.

3) Erik Spoelstra Is The Best Coach In The League

How much longer do we say that coaching doesn’t matter in the modern NBA? Erik Spoelstra is proving to the world that coaching may still be a key indicator of whether a team is talented or elite. Talent is nothing if a coach can’t put it altogether, as evidenced by Heat knocking off higher seeds with more talent at their disposal. Miami has been playing without two rotational players in Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, but Spoelstra has just created a system where they could be out, and players like Duncan Robinson can go from getting DNPs in the regular season to contributing big in the playoffs. 

Michael Malone has just as much continuity with his franchise as Spoelstra and has had his core group of players for longer, so it won’t be easy for Spoelstra to win this chess match. There are flaws in how Denver plays, like their inability to protect the rim off drives. A coach likely sees a weakness and zeros in on it, so it will be interesting to see what Spoelstra finds and how he sets his team up for this incredible Finals matchup.

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