Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey stand tall among rookies in the 2025 Draft Class, two top draft picks whose skills and potential have already ignited debate over who will take home the Rookie of the Year trophy. Both players enter the league with immense expectations and fanbases eager to see how their college dominance translates in the NBA.
As the new season tips off in just a few weeks, the narrative feels less about rebuilding teams and more about individual ascension. Flagg, the Dallas Mavericks’ No. 1 overall pick, brings an all-around brilliance that screams franchise cornerstone, while Bailey, drafted No. 5 overall by the Utah Jazz, offers elite athleticism and scoring flair that could make him an instant fan favorite.
But who will likely win the Rookie of the Year? We have a full breakdown on which player will come away with the esteemed reward to see if the Mavs or Jazz got the better player right now.
Player Statistics
Statistically, both rookies are expected to deliver strong campaigns, though in very different ways. Cooper Flagg will showcase his versatility from the start; rebounding with intensity, protecting the rim, and creating opportunities for teammates.
Expect Flagg to average solid numbers in rebounds, assists, and blocks, proving his impact stretches far beyond scoring. His basketball IQ and positioning will ensure that even on nights when his shot isn’t falling, he’s influencing the game in other areas due to his athleticism.
Ace Bailey, on the other hand, will lean heavily on his scoring ability to define his rookie season. Gifted with elite athleticism and smooth shot creation, Bailey projects as one of the most dynamic scorers in his class. He will likely outpace Flagg in points per game, becoming a primary option for Utah’s offense.
While his assist and rebound numbers may trail behind, his offensive volume will stand out, especially with the Jazz relying on him to generate buckets in isolation or transition. Bailey’s stat sheet may be flashier, but Flagg’s balance will tell the fuller story.
Edge: Cooper Flagg
Team Impact
When evaluating team success, Cooper Flagg clearly benefits from joining a more established side. The Dallas Mavericks, even in the post-Luka Doncic era, have competent veterans and a solid infrastructure that will help Flagg adapt without too much pressure.
His contributions will translate directly to wins, allowing him to showcase how his two-way game elevates an entire roster. Playing meaningful basketball in a competitive environment will strengthen his Rookie of the Year case, even if his scoring totals aren’t as high.
For Ace Bailey, the situation in Utah presents a double-edged sword. The Jazz are rebuilding, which means Bailey will have the freedom to explore his scoring potential and the responsibility that comes with it. He’ll take on a heavier scoring load, face tougher defensive matchups, and likely see more volatility in team success.
While Bailey’s numbers may shine brighter individually, the Jazz’s record could limit his overall narrative in award conversations. Ultimately, Flagg’s winning context may outweigh Bailey’s offensive freedom.
Edge: Cooper Flagg
Offensive Talent
Bailey enters the league as the more natural scorer, capable of creating his own shot from anywhere on the floor. His combination of length, handle, and mid-range precision will make him a tough cover for opposing wings.
Expect him to average more points and carry a higher usage rate, particularly as Utah shapes its offense around his strengths. His ability to score in isolation will make him the focal point of highlight packages, even if his efficiency fluctuates early on.
Flagg, however, brings a different kind of offensive brilliance. While he might not match Bailey’s raw scoring volume, his game will produce the most memorable highlights: putback dunks, chase-down blocks leading to fast breaks, and crafty passes in traffic.
His offensive flair will generate viral moments, giving him media momentum throughout the season. Flagg’s efficiency, decision-making, and ability to impact scoring without forcing plays will earn him recognition as one of the league’s most complete young players.
Edge: Ace Bailey
Defensive Talent
Defense will be where Cooper Flagg separates himself from the pack. His instincts, length, and timing make him a natural rim protector and switch defender. Flagg will routinely guard multiple positions, thrive in help situations, and produce game-changing blocks.
His defensive versatility allows Dallas to experiment with creative lineups, a major advantage in the modern NBA. Expect him to rack up steals and blocks while anchoring key defensive possessions.
Ace Bailey, though known primarily for offense, will surprise fans with flashes of defensive potential. His long frame and athleticism allow him to contest shots and disrupt passing lanes effectively.
However, he’ll still need to develop the discipline and consistency that define elite defenders. While Bailey’s defensive highlights may come sporadically, Flagg’s steady presence on that end will give him a clear edge in overall two-way impact.
Edge: Cooper Flagg
Popularity
In terms of popularity, Cooper Flagg will command the spotlight from day one. Playing in Dallas as the direct successor to Luka Doncic gives him immediate national attention, and his composed demeanor makes him a media favorite. His charisma, confidence, and highlight-ready game will translate into endorsements, fan votes, and endless social media buzz. No doubt, Flagg will get constant attention as the next big star of the NBA.
Conversely, Ace Bailey faces a tougher path to mainstream appeal. His reported hesitation about playing in Utah and the smaller market environment could hurt his public image early on. While his talent will earn respect among basketball purists, he won’t generate the same media frenzy or nationwide exposure as Flagg.
Edge: Cooper Flagg
Final Score: Cooper Flagg vs. Ace Bailey 4-1
Cooper Flagg Will Win 2026 Rookie Of The Year
While Ace Bailey will likely produce the stronger scoring numbers, Cooper Flagg will likely claim the 2026 Rookie of the Year award. His all-around game, defensive excellence, and impact on winning basketball will resonate more with voters who value overall performance instead of raw scoring stats.
Flagg’s leadership and maturity will stand out on a Mavericks team competing for the playoffs, and his nightly highlights will keep his name trending throughout the season. Those fans who are still devastated by the Doncic trade will find solace in Flagg’s high-energy performances and will stand by him from the start.
Bailey, though brilliant offensively, will be limited by Utah’s rebuilding struggles and inconsistent efficiency. His scoring will earn him attention, but Flagg’s balance of production and narrative momentum will win the day. By season’s end, Cooper Flagg will be the best rookie and the foundation of Dallas’s next great era beyond Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
