The Hawks host the Mavericks at State Farm Arena on Tuesday, March 10, at 7:30 PM ET. The Hawks are 33-31 and ninth in the East, while the Mavericks are 21-43 and 12th in the West. The Hawks are 15-16 at home, and the Mavericks are 7-24 on the road.
The Hawks last played Saturday and beat the 76ers 125-116. The Mavericks played Sunday and got routed 122-92 by the Raptors.
This is the first meeting of the season. The rematch is set for March 18.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson is putting up 22.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, while CJ McCollum has given them 18.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in 24 games.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg comes in at 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, while Naji Marshall has added 15.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
The game pressure is pretty clear. The Hawks have won six straight and are trying to hold position in the East play-in race, while the Mavericks have lost seven in a row and are just trying to stop the slide.
Injury Report
Hawks
Asa Newell: Doubtful (G League – On Assignment)
Jonathan Kuminga: Questionable (left knee bone bruise)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
John Poulakidas: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Moussa Cisse: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The Hawks have the cleaner offensive identity in this matchup. They score 117.7 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league, and nobody moves the ball better, with 30.5 assists per game, the best mark in the NBA. They also knock down 14.4 threes per night and shoot 36.9% from deep. That matters against a Mavericks team that allows 117.7 points per game and has struggled to keep actions in front of it for weeks.
The turnover matchup is a real problem for the Mavericks. The Hawks average 9.4 steals per game, and they sit near the top of the league in total steals. The Mavericks, meanwhile, turn it over 14.8 times per game, the highest number in the league. That is the exact kind of profile the Hawks can punish, because the easiest offense comes when it gets out on the open floor instead of having to grind through half-court possessions.
The form line is not close right now. The Hawks are 7-3 in their last 10, they have won six straight overall, and they have taken five straight at home. The Mavericks are 2-8 in their last 10 and have dropped seven in a row. That does not guarantee anything, but it matters because Atlanta is playing with rhythm and structure, while the Mavericks keep looking like a team trying to patch together enough offense to survive.
The Mavericks also have a hard time winning the math battle from the perimeter. The Mavericks score 113.0 points per game, own a 110.3 offensive rating, and shoot 33.9% from three, which ranks 28th. They also make only 10.6 threes per game, 29th in the league. If the Hawks keep the game moving and force them to score through half-court execution possession after possession, the Mavericks do not have enough reliable shooting to make that comfortable.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The clearest Mavericks counter is its three-point defense. Opponents are shooting only 34.0% from three against the Mavericks, the best mark in the league. That matters because the Hawks do a lot of damage through drive-and-kick offense, and if the Mavs can hold up on the arc, it can shrink one of the Hawks’ biggest advantages.
There is also still enough size here to make the game messy. The Mavericks pull down 44.7 rebounds per game and block 5.3 shots per game. The Hawks are at 43.2 rebounds and 4.7 blocks. If the Mavericks can turn this into a more physical game around the rim, it has a chance to flatten the Hawks’ transition edge and force more one-shot possessions.
The free-throw profile gives the Mavericks another path. The Mavericks average 25.5 free-throw attempts per game and make 19.0 free throws a night. The Hawks are a middle-of-the-pack defense by rating at 114.5 and allow 117.3 points per game. If they get downhill often enough and turn this into a stop-start game, it can stay attached without needing elite three-point volume.
And while the recent record is ugly, there is still some schematic logic for the Mavericks. The Hawks like to gamble for steals and speed games up. If the Mavericks can survive that first wave, use Flagg and Gafford as interior pressure points, and finish possessions with rebounds, they can push this toward a half-court game where the talent gap is not as wide as the records suggest. The margin for error is small, but it exists.
X-Factors
Dyson Daniels is the first one to watch for the Hawks. He has produced 11.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, and this matchup is built for his kind of chaos. If Daniels blows up passing lanes and turns the Mavs’ shaky ball security into runouts, the Hawks can create easy offense before the Mavericks’ size gets set. If he cannot pressure the point of attack, the Hawks have to work much harder in the half-court.
Onyeka Okongwu gives the Hawks a big who can do more than just screen and dive. He has posted 16.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.0 blocks while shooting 38.8% from three. If Okongwu finishes inside and also drags a big defender into space, the Hawks can open up the entire floor. If he loses the glass battle, the Mavericks get the kind of ugly game they want.
Daniel Gafford is a real swing piece for the Mavericks. He is at 8.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 64.1% shooting from the field, and his job here is simple: own the paint minutes. If Gafford protects the rim, finishes lobs, and steals a few extra possessions on the glass, the Mavericks have a way to stay in contact even if the backcourt creation is uneven. If he gets played off the floor or loses the rebounding fight, the Mavericks do not have many clean alternatives.
Max Christie is the wing who can change the shot profile fastest. He has given the Mavericks 12.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 40.7% from three. Against a Hawks defense that will load up on Flagg’s drives and jump passing lanes, Christie’s role is to punish the help. If he hits the catch-and-shoot looks, the Mavericks can keep the scoreboard moving. If he does not, the floor gets very small very quickly.
Prediction
I’m taking the Hawks because the matchup points in too many obvious directions. They have a top-10 scoring offense at 117.7 points per game, and a live-ball pressure advantage against a Mavericks team that leads the league in turnovers.
Add in the six-game winning streak and the Mavericks’ tanking efforts, and this looks like a spot where the Hawks should control the game if they do not get careless.
Prediction: Hawks 121, Mavericks 110
