The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Toyota Center on Friday, January 16, with tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. CST.
The Rockets enter at 23-15 (6th in the West), while the Timberwolves are 27-14 (4th).
The Rockets are coming off a rough 111-91 loss to the Thunder, while the Timberwolves just smoked the Bucks 139-106 even while short-handed.
As for the season series, this is one of those matchups that can swing tiebreaker vibes later, especially with both teams sitting in the thick of the West race.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant has been cooking at 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, with Alperen Sengun right there too at 21.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists.
For the Timberwolves, Julius Randle has been the headliner lately at 22.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, and Rudy Gobert’s presence (11.0 points, 11.4 rebounds) changes the entire paint math.
The big twist is simple: Anthony Edwards is out again, so this turns into a “who creates the easiest offense” game instead of a pure star duel.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Tari Eason: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Out (right foot injury maintenance)
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (left foot abductor hallucis strain)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ defensive baseline gives them a real path here. They’re allowing just 110.8 points per game, which is a notably better mark than what the Timberwolves have given up (114.6). That matters more than ever when Edwards is out, because the Timberwolves’ shot creation gets a little more “committee” and a little less “bailout bucket.”
The other big edge is on the glass. The Rockets are pulling down 49.4 rebounds per game, while the Timberwolves sit at 44.8. If this turns into extra possessions plus free throws, that’s where a home team can grind out a win even if the half-court gets ugly.
And the Rockets’ shooting is legit enough to punish over-help. They’re at 47.8% from the field and 36.8% from three, so if the Timberwolves sell out to crowd Durant and Sengun, the kickouts have to hurt.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Wolves’ offense has been louder all season. They’re scoring 120.3 points per game on 48.6% shooting, and they’ve got the cleaner ball movement edge too at 27.0 assists per game. If the Timberwolves get into rhythm early, they can turn this into a track meet the Rockets don’t want.
The three-point volume also leans toward the Timberwolves. They are taking 38.0 threes per game and hitting 14.2 of them, while the Rockets are at 30.7 attempts and 11.3 makes. That’s a sneaky gap, because a couple extra made threes can erase the rebounding advantage fast.
And if this gets tight late, the Wolves’ “next guy up” creation looks sturdier right now. Even without Edwards, Randle can bully mismatches, and Gobert’s return gives them a much clearer defensive identity at the rim.
X-Factors
Amen Thompson is the chaos lever for the Rockets. He’s at 18.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and his pace-changing rebounds into transition can steal easy points before the Timberwolves defense gets set. If he lives in the paint and keeps pressure on the rim, it takes a ton of weight off Durant having to manufacture everything late-clock.
Jabari Smith Jr. sits right behind that as the “did you win the role-player math?” guy. He’s putting up 15.1 points and 7.0 rebounds, and his spacing is huge if the Timberwolves try to park size near Sengun’s touches. If Jabari hits early threes, the Wolves can’t load up as aggressively.
Keep an eye on Tari Eason if he goes. He’s at 12.0 points and 6.0 rebounds in 21 games, and he’s one of the few Rockets forwards who can flip a possession with pure activity, loose balls, second jumps, and corner threes. If he’s limited or sits, the Rockets lose a big chunk of their “messy” energy.
On the Timberwolves side, Naz Reid is the cleanest swing. He’s averaging 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, and he forces bigs to guard in space. If he pulls the Rockets’ rim protection away from the basket, the Timberwolves’ drives and dump-offs get way easier.
Donte DiVincenzo is another one who can quietly decide this. He’s at 13.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and his quick-trigger threes punish any lazy help. If the Rockets send two at Randle, Donte is the exact guy who makes you pay.
And Jaden McDaniels is the glue piece. He’s putting up 14.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting efficiently, and he’s the kind of defender who can make Durant work for every touch without totally breaking your scheme.
Prediction
I’m leaning Timberwolves. The offense is just more consistent right now, and even without Edwards, they have enough shot-making plus enough size to survive the Rockets’ rebounding edge.
Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Rockets 113
