The Toronto Raptors host the Los Angeles Clippers at Scotiabank Arena on Friday, January 16, at 7:30 PM ET.
The Clippers come in at 17-23 as the No. 11 seed in the West, while the Raptors are 25-17 as the No. 4 seed in the East.
The Clippers last beat the Wizards 119-105, while the Raptors beat the Pacers 115-101 in their most recent game.
This is the first meeting of the season series, so it’s a clean slate matchup with a lot of lineup uncertainty hanging over it.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is at 28.2 points per game, and James Harden is at 25.6 points per game. For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram is at 21.9 points per game, and Scottie Barnes is at 19.4 points per game.
Injury Report
Raptors
RJ Barrett: Out (left ankle sprain)
Jakob Poeltl: Out (lower back strain)
Ja’Kobe Walter: Out (right hip pointer)
Jamison Battle: Doubtful (left ankle sprain)
Immanuel Quickley: Questionable (back spasms)
Garrett Temple: Questionable (back spasms)
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Questionable (illness)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Out (left hamstring, injury management)
Derrick Jones Jr.: Out (right knee sprain)
Chris Paul: Out (not with team)
John Collins: Questionable (right groin soreness)
Kawhi Leonard: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Ivica Zubac: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors can win this game with steadiness. They take care of the ball better than the Clippers, and that matters when you’re facing a team that can get loose with it. The Raptors are at 13.0 turnovers per game, the Clippers are at 14.1.
They also have a nice baseline formula: 109.5 points per game, 46.8% from the field, and 25.2 assists per game. That’s not fireworks, but it’s enough to punish a short-handed opponent if the Raptors stay organized.
And if Immanuel Quickley suits up, the guard pressure ramps up fast. He’s at 16.5 points and 6.1 assists this season, and the Raptors need that extra creation if Jakob Poeltl is out and they have to manufacture rim pressure by committee.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The Clippers still have the “shot-making ceiling” card, especially if Kawhi and Harden both go. They’re at 112.5 points per game and they shoot 48.5% from the field, plus a nasty 38.8% from three. If they get rolling early, this becomes a math problem for the Raptors.
They’re also slightly better defensively by the basic scoreboard numbers, allowing 110.3 points per game versus 110.7 for the Raptors. That’s close, but in a game where both teams could be missing key pieces, one or two extra stops usually decides it.
The big swing is Zubac’s ankle. When he plays, the Clippers control the glass and the paint way more consistently, and he’s been a double-double machine at 14.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.
X-Factors
Ivica Zubac is the obvious one. If he’s in and mobile, the Clippers can keep the Raptors out of second-chance points and get steady rim pressure without spamming isolations. He’s at 14.8 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and that rebounding edge can tilt the whole tempo.
John Collins matters too, because he’s the cleanest way for the Clippers to play fast without getting sloppy. He’s averaging 13.1 points and 5.0 rebounds, and if he wins his minutes as a roller and a cutter, the Raptors have to shrink the floor, which opens those Clippers threes.
Then there’s Jordan Miller as a bench spark. He’s at 6.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in limited minutes, and the Clippers badly need someone to win the “energy” minutes if Kawhi is limited or if Harden’s shot isn’t falling.
For the Raptors, Sandro Mamukelashvili is sneaky huge if Poeltl sits. He’s at 10.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, and they need his spacing and quick decisions to keep the offense from sticking.
Jamison Battle is another one if he plays through the ankle stuff. His season line is only 3.4 points and 1.5 rebounds, but he shoots it well in small bursts, and the Raptors need any extra wing minutes they can trust with Barrett out.
Gradey Dick is the last swing guy. He’s at 6.4 points per game, and if he hits a couple early threes, it forces the Clippers to stop helping off the corners, which is when the Barnes and Ingram stuff starts getting way cleaner.
Prediction
This feels like a Raptors control game if the injury questions break their way. If Kawhi or Zubac can’t go, the Clippers are going to need a near-perfect three-point night to survive.
Prediction: Raptors 113, Clippers 108
