The Oklahoma City Thunder are steamrolling the league. At 24-1, the defending champions own the NBA’s best record and the league’s top defense as they arrive in Las Vegas one win away from the NBA Cup Final.
Standing in their way are the San Antonio Spurs, 17-7 and fresh off a 132-119 win over the Lakers in the quarterfinals. They have gone 9-3 without Victor Wembanyama and have quietly turned into one of the toughest, most disciplined teams in the West.
Now the show gets even bigger. Wembanyama is expected to return from his calf strain on Saturday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like a back-to-back MVP, and this semifinal has real “future of the league” energy all over it.
Injury Report
Thunder
- Isaiah Joe: Out (knee contusion)
- Thomas Sorber: Out (ACL)
- Nikola Topic: Out (surgery recovery)
Isaiah Hartenstein is back in the rotation, and Cason Wallace is active, which gives the Thunder a full frontcourt and their best perimeter stopper at their disposal. The absences mostly hurt depth and shooting off the bench, not the core rotation.
Spurs
- Harrison Ingram: Out (G League, two-way)
- David Jones Garcia: Questionable (G League, two-way)
- Riley Minix: Out (G League, two-way)
- Victor Wembanyama: Probable (left calf strain)
The real story is Wembanyama. He is officially probable, and local reporting has Spurs coach Mitch Johnson saying he is expected to play, likely with a minutes restriction and early substitutions.
Before the injury, Wembanyama was playing at a ridiculously high level. Through 12 games this season, he averaged 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.6 blocks, numbers that make him a top-five player on impact already.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
Start with the obvious. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player in this league through the first quarter of the season. He is averaging 32.6 points and 6.5 assists while shooting 56.2% from the field and 45.4% from three. That is absurd efficiency for someone with his usage.
The Thunder as a whole are terrifying. They sit at 24-1 with a 121.9 offensive rating and 104.7 defensive rating, good for a net rating over plus-17. That is peak-Warriors territory.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are the perfect support system. Williams is a do-everything wing who can score, create, and defend, while Holmgren protects the rim and spaces the floor. Even without exact per-game numbers here, every metric screams that this trio is crushing opponents on both ends.
The Thunder also have continuity. This is the same core that won 68 games and a title last year. They know exactly who they are. Mark Daigneault’s system is built on ball movement, five-out spacing, and a swarm of long defenders who switch everything and close gaps fast.
In a one-game neutral-court setting, that matters. They play fast, they play connected, and they have the best closer in the matchup. Shai has 96 straight games with at least 20 points and leads the league in clutch scoring, so if this is tight late, you automatically lean Thunder.
On top of that, the Thunder have already shown they can destroy good teams. They just blew out the Suns 138-89 in the quarterfinals, with Shai dropping an efficient 28 points in 27 minutes.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
Spurs fans are not showing up just to be extras in the Thunder movie. This team is good, and they have been winning without their best player.
They are fifth in the West and just knocked out the Lakers 132-119 behind Stephon Castle’s breakout and a complete team performance.
De’Aaron Fox gives them a real star in the backcourt. He is averaging 24.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 48.6% from the field. He pushes tempo, lives in the paint, and can punish switches when Oklahoma City tries to hide weaker defenders.
Devin Vassell quietly keeps doing his thing. He is at 15.4 points per game with solid efficiency, and he slides between on-ball scoring and off-ball spacing depending on what the lineup needs. Add Harrison Barnes’ shooting and size, plus Luke Kornet’s screening and rim protection, and the Spurs’ starting five is balanced.
Then you add Wembanyama back into that mix. Even with a minutes limit, 20 to 25 minutes of a guy who averages 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks can flip a game. He changes shot charts by himself. The Thunder love to live at the rim and collapse defenses around Shai, but that is a lot harder when there is a 7’4″ alien waiting at the basket.
The Spurs also have swagger right now. They went 9-3 without Wemby, they just beat the Lakers to get here, and Castle has looked way ahead of schedule as a two-way guard who loves big moments.
If they can slow the pace, control the glass, and turn this into a half-court slog where every possession is a grind, the Spurs can absolutely scare the Thunder.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction
This feels like a classic “up-and-coming juggernaut vs. fearless underdog with a star returning” script. The Spurs have the emotional boost of Wembanyama’s comeback and the confidence of a record that is not an accident.
But there is a big difference between “can hang” and “should win.”
The Thunder have the best player in the game, the best record in the league, the best net rating, and the comfort of a system that has already delivered a championship. They just crushed the Suns. They have answered every challenge so far this season.
Wembanyama being on a minutes limit matters. If he only plays mid-20s in minutes, there will be big stretches where the Spurs have to survive without him against a relentless Shai-led attack. That is where the depth and continuity gap shows.
I think the Spurs hang around early, ride the emotion of Wemby’s return, and maybe even lead for a while. Once the game settles and rotations tighten, the Thunder’s star power and two-way machine should take over.
Prediction: Thunder 121, Spurs 108
