The Nuggets host the Pistons at Ball Arena on Tuesday, January 27, with tip-off set for 9:00 PM ET.
The Pistons come in at 33-11, sitting first in the East, while the Nuggets are 31-15, third in the West.
The Pistons’ last game was a 139-116 beatdown of the Kings, powered by Cade Cunningham’s 29 points and 11 assists.
The Nuggets’ last outing was a gritty 102-100 win over the Bucks, with Julian Strawther popping for 20 in a short-handed lineup.
This is the first meeting of the season, and it’s spicy because the Pistons are basically full-go, while the Nuggets are trying to survive a brutal injury wave, including Nikola Jokic.
Cade is putting up 25.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists, and Jalen Duren is at 17.8 points and 10.6 boards.
On the Nuggets’ side, Jokic is at 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists, and Jamal Murray is at 26.0 points and 7.3 assists.
Injury Report
Pistons
Isaac Jones: Out (G League, on assignment)
Caris LeVert: Out (illness)
Nuggets
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Jamal Murray: Probable (right hamstring inflammation)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
Even with the injury chaos, the Nuggets can still flat-out score. They’re at 120.7 points per game, they shoot 49.6% from the field, and they’re ripping 39.5% from three, that’s elite shot-making math. If they’re going to steal this one, it’s by turning it into a spacing game where the Pistons can’t load up on Murray.
The other big edge is how clean the Nuggets play. They average just 12.6 turnovers per game, and they dish 28.1 assists per game, so they’re not giving away empty possessions. That matters a lot against a Pistons team that can get a little loose with the ball.
And yeah, the Pistons are the better defensive team overall, but their one weakness is right there in the stat sheet: 16.0 turnovers per game. If the Nuggets win the turnover battle and get extra threes, they can absolutely make this ugly for a road team.
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
This is the simple argument: the Pistons defend, rebound, and travel well, and they’re not the ones missing an MVP-level engine.
They’re allowing just 110.09 points per game, and they’ve posted a 109.2 defensive rating this season. That’s not “try hard” defense, that’s real structure, real rim protection, real ball pressure. They also rack up 10.5 steals and 6.6 blocks per game, which is exactly how you punish a patchwork offense.
The rebounding gap is another sneaky swing. The Pistons pull down 46.0 boards per game, and with Jokic out, I don’t trust the Nuggets to consistently finish defensive possessions. If the Pistons get extra looks, they’re going to get to their 117.4 points per game even if the shooting is just decent.
Also, the Pistons have been winning away from home and came into this spot riding a three-game road win streak, so this isn’t some soft travel team showing up hoping to hang around.
X-Factors
Peyton Watson is the “if this happens, the Nuggets have a chance” guy. He’s at 14.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, with 42.1% from three, which is a wild swing stat for a wing who can defend. If he’s hitting threes, the Pistons can’t just suffocate Murray with help.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the volatility weapon. He’s giving the Nuggets 13.7 points per game and he’s shooting 39.2% from three, which means a two-minute heater can flip the whole game. If he gets hot, the Nuggets’ offense looks normal again, even without the usual creators.
Bruce Brown is the glue work nobody wants to talk about until it wins a game. He’s at 7.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and in a shorthanded rotation, those “do everything” minutes matter more than ever. If Brown wins the hustle battle, the Nuggets can survive the talent gap.
For the Pistons, Duncan Robinson is the spacing pressure point. He’s averaging 12.1 points per game and shooting 40.5% from three, and if the Nuggets are forced to stay hugged to him, Cade’s driving lanes open up like a runway.
Ausar Thompson is the tone-setter defender. He’s at 10.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, and his impact is bigger than the box score because he turns live-ball chaos into fast-break points. In this matchup, he can basically decide whether the Nuggets’ wings feel comfortable or hunted.
Isaiah Stewart is the bench hammer. He’s putting up 10.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks, and this is the exact type of game where his physicality can tilt a second unit. If Stewart dominates the non-Cade minutes, the Pistons can win this without sweating a late clutch situation.
Prediction
I’m taking the Pistons. Too much defense, too much size, and the Nuggets are missing too many core pieces to lean on their usual execution. The Nuggets will make threes and have a real run in them, but the Pistons’ ability to force mistakes and control the glass is the separator.
Prediction: Pistons 118, Nuggets 112
