The Spurs and Kings meet Saturday, February 21, at Moody Center (8:00 p.m. ET).
The Spurs come in 39-16, sitting 2nd in the West. The Kings are 12-45, last in the West.
The recent form is basically two different seasons. The Spurs’ last outing was a 121-94 win over the Suns on Thursday. The Kings’ last outing was a 131-94 loss to the Magic that same night.
This is the second meeting of the season. The Spurs took the first one on November 16, winning 123-110.
The headliners are real, even with the Kings missing key pieces. Victor Wembanyama is putting up 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. De’Aaron Fox is at 19.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists this season.
For the Kings, DeMar DeRozan is carrying a 19.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists line. Russell Westbrook is at 15.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.5 assists.
Injury Report
Spurs
Mason Plumlee: Out (return to competition reconditioning)
Lindy Waters III: Questionable (left knee hyperextension)
Kings
Zach LaVine: Out (right 5th finger tendon repair)
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee meniscus repair)
Dylan Cardwell: Out (left ankle sprain)
De’Andre Hunter: Out (left eye iritis)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
Start with the shape of the game. The Spurs score 118.2 points per game (7th) and allow 111.8 (5th). The Kings score 109.9 (29th) and allow 120.8 (28th). That is the cleanest “math” advantage you can write in February.
Then it gets uglier when you look at the possessions the Kings are about to lose. No Domantas Sabonis means no hub, no screening gravity, no easy paint touches that stabilize the halfcourt. No Zach LaVine means less downhill pressure and fewer “bailout” jumpers late in the clock.
Against a Spurs group that rebounds well (46.6 per game, 3rd) and is solid moving the ball (26.7 assists, 12th), you can see how the Kings end up defending for long stretches without getting quality offense back.
And if you want the advanced snapshot: the Spurs sit 6th in offensive rating (118.1), 8th in defensive rating (112.8), and 6th in net rating (5.4). That is a contender profile, not a “fun story” profile.
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
There’s only one real path: shot-making plus tempo control from veterans.
DeRozan and Westbrook can still bend a game with force. DeRozan’s midrange diet creates decent looks when the floor is tilted against you. Westbrook’s pace can manufacture possessions that don’t require a perfect half-court environment.
If the Kings can get into early offense, steal a few transition sequences, and turn this into a “volume” night, they at least give themselves a chance to keep it respectable.
The other argument is simple variance. The Spurs are the better team, but if they let the Kings hang around, a couple of hot shooting stretches can compress a 15-point gap into a clutch game. That is the Kings’ only leverage: chaos.
X-Factors
Devin Vassell is the cleanest “role guy who swings a quarter” piece for the Spurs. He’s averaging 15.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and his job in this matchup is simple: punish the help that’s coming when the Spurs’ primary actions pull two defenders. If Vassell is converting those catch-and-shoot windows, the Kings can’t overload the paint without giving up efficient threes.
Stephon Castle is the organizer who keeps the Spurs from playing sloppy basketball as the game stretches. He’s at 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and his value is pace control. If Castle is getting the Spurs into offense early and keeping turnovers clean, the gap between these teams usually shows up fast because the Kings don’t get the “free” transition chances they need.
For the Kings, Keegan Murray has to be the “keeps it respectable” forward. He’s putting up 14.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and his importance is two-way: hit enough threes to stretch the floor, then rebound well enough to end possessions. If Murray is quiet, the Kings’ offense gets even more cramped with the injury list.
Malik Monk is the shot-creation relief valve the Kings desperately need right now. He’s averaging 12.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. With key scorers out, Monk’s ability to generate a good shot late in the clock matters more than the raw volume. If he’s creating advantages off the bounce, the Kings can avoid the long empty stretches that usually turn these games into blowouts.
Prediction
The Kings’ injury report is just too heavy to ignore, and the team stats don’t give them cover. The Spurs are top-10 in scoring and top-5 in points allowed, while the Kings are bottom-two in both scoring and defense.
Add in the missing Sabonis and LaVine, and the Kings are asking DeRozan and Westbrook to win a game where they’ll need to score efficiently and defend for 48 minutes. That’s a tough combination.
Prediction: Spurs 122, Kings 104
