The Knicks host the Rockets at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, February 21, at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Knicks are 35-21 and fourth in the East. The Rockets are 34-20 and fourth in the West. The Knicks have been strong at home (20-6). The Rockets have been basically .500 on the road (16-13).
Both teams are coming in off wins and losses that fit their current identity. The Knicks dropped their last one 126-111 to the Pistons on Thursday. The Rockets beat the Hornets 105-101 that same night, surviving a game that could have gone sideways late.
This one has real top-end talent on both sides. Jalen Brunson is posting 27.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, shooting 46.9% from the field and 37.5% from three. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 19.8 points and 11.9 rebounds with 2.9 assists.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is putting up 25.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists on 50.6% from the field and 40.3% from three, while Alperen Sengun has a stat line of 20.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic, core muscle surgery)
Pacome Dadiet: Questionable (G League, on assignment)
Trey Jemison III: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Dillon Jones: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Kevin McCullar Jr.: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League, two-way)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
This is a home-court shot-making game for the Knicks. They own a 119.8 offensive rating (2nd), and they’re hitting 37.8% from three (3rd). That’s the profile that punishes any second of indecision: help one step too far toward Brunson, and it turns into a clean catch-and-shoot night.
The other edge is that the Knicks don’t need to play fast to score. Their home splits show it clearly: 120.0 points per game at home, plus 47.9 rebounds and 27.5 assists baseline that keeps them from getting stuck in “your turn, my turn” possessions. If this becomes a half-court grind, they’re comfortable living there.
The one concern is guard depth with Miles McBride out, because that’s where the Rockets can try to steal a stretch. But the Knicks’ overall efficiency base (net rating 5.8, 5th) is built to survive minor rotation stress.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets travel with real two-way teeth. They sit at a 118.0 offensive rating (7th), a 112.8 defensive rating (5th), and a 5.2 net rating. That’s not a “hot week” profile. It’s a team that can win ugly, which matters in this building.
Their biggest practical edge is the possession battle. The Rockets lead the league in offensive rebounds per game (16.0). If they can turn misses into extra trips, they can blunt the Knicks’ biggest strength: three-point volume that snowballs at home.
And even without Fred VanVleet, the offense can still function because Sengun is a true hub. When he’s on the floor, the Rockets are at a 119.0 offensive rating, and the pace is slow enough (95.7) that they can keep the game from getting reckless.
X-Factors
Josh Hart is the Knicks’ pressure valve because he changes the possession math without needing touches. Hart is averaging 12.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in 30.5 minutes, and he’s hitting 50.1% from the field and 40.6% from three. If Hart is rebounding and pushing, the Knicks can steal 6–8 points in the “in-between” parts of the game where Houston usually wins with physicality.
OG Anunoby is the defensive hinge. Anunoby is at 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, plus 1.7 steals, while shooting 47.9% from the field and 37.0% from three. If Anunoby holds up on the primary matchup and still knocks down spot threes, the Knicks can stay home on shooters and keep the Rockets’ drive-and-kick game from snowballing.
Mikal Bridges is the other Knicks swing because his two-way production is supposed to stabilize the middle of the game. Bridges is averaging 15.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, with 50.2% from the field and 38.9% from three. If Bridges is converting those clean catch-and-shoot looks, it becomes much harder for Houston to overload Brunson and live with the results.
For the Rockets, Amen Thompson is the tempo-breaker, especially with Fred VanVleet out. Thompson’s ability to create rim pressure and force rotations is how Houston avoids “one-pass” possessions late. (17.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game this season)
Jabari Smith Jr. is the spacing and matchup lever. Smith is averaging 15.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists while shooting 43.7% from the field and 35.8% from three. If he’s making threes at volume, the Knicks can’t shrink the floor into Sengun actions, and that’s where the Rockets’ offense looks the cleanest.
Tari Eason is the volatility guy. Eason is at 12.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 24.5 minutes, and he’s hitting 47.9% from three. If Eason is giving the Rockets a real scoring punch off the bench, they can win the non-Durant minutes and make this a fourth-quarter game.
Prediction
I lean Knicks because the home profile is built for this exact kind of matchup. They have the cleanest offensive advantage on the floor, and the Knicks have been a different team at the Garden (21-8).
The Rockets have a very real path through offensive rebounding and defense, and I think they’ll make it uncomfortable for long stretches. But if the Knicks get even an average shooting night from their perimeter rotation, the math starts to tilt hard.
Prediction: Knicks 114, Rockets 110
