The NBA standings are still very much in flux with another 20-odd games to go this season. Still, with the playoffs looming on the horizon, the standings will start to solidify soon enough as teams lock in and prepare for some of their best basketball of the year.
Today, fourth in the West, most Lakers fans are feeling optimistic about their title chances, and they have every reason to be. With Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James, they have a core group that’s capable of competing against anyone, and they’ve shown that at various points throughout the season. Still, in a crowded Western Conference, not every seed is built equally, and you can’t help but wonder what situation would be the best for Los Angeles.
At 40-25, a top-two seed is already out of reach for the Lakers, given they are 8.5 games back from the Spurs. They are also highly unlikely to fall to eight in the West, with a seven-game lead over the Clippers. That means the Purple and Gold could end up anywhere from third to seventh.
3. Nightmare Scenario (7 Seed)
The Lakers have been steadily in the top six for most of the season, but there’s still a world where they can fall into play-in range. Currently, the Suns are only 1.5 games back in the standings, meaning one more losing streak could be enough to jeopardize the Lakers’ playoff positioning. While the Lakers would be heavily favored in a play-in game, there is no guarantee they’d win against a team like the Clippers, Warriors, or Trail Blazers.
If the Lakers do manage to advance to the first round, they’d only be met with the prospect of battling either the Thunder or Spurs, who have been two of the best teams in the league. The Purple and Gold have struggled against younger, more athletic teams before, and there’s no question they’d be heavily outmatched against a superior opponent.
Whatever the Lakers do, they must avoid this scenario at all costs. It would be a disaster to their title hopes and the ultimate mark of a failed season. Fortunately, as they get healthier down the stretch, the Lakers should have no problem staying in the top six.
2. The Wild Card (4 or 5 Seed)
While fourth or fifth in the West might seem okay on paper, it’s actually one of the toughest possible roads for the Lakers. While they’d at least avoid the Thunder and Spurs in the first round, they’d likely end up facing the Denver Nuggets, an opponent that’s beaten them several times in the playoffs already. The Lakers would have no answer for Nikola Jokic, likely ending in an early playoff exit. If they don’t have home-court advantage, it will worsen their chances even further.
Even if they get past that series, the Lakers would most likely have to face the Thunder in the second round, who would still be fresh after (presumably) dominating the previous series. OKC currently has the best record in the league (51-15), and they’re arguably the toughest team to beat right now with star power, depth, and seamless chemistry.
Even if they were somehow to beat Oklahoma City, they’d be rewarded with a showdown against an even tougher opponent: Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. There’s no way the Lakers are going to beat the three best teams (and the three best players) in the West on their own, and that’s why this path doesn’t really favor their success.
1. Most Ideal Road (3 or 6 Seed)
Even finishing sixth would be better than most alternatives this season. With the top two seeds already set (between the Thunder and Spurs), the Lakers’ best chance of a successful playoff run is to avoid them for as long as they can. That’s only possible if they land on the other side of the bracket, either third or sixth in the standings. In that scenario, the Lakers would likely match up against either the Rockets or Timberwolves in the first round, all of whom are more beatable than the top two teams.
The Lakers would then have to play the Spurs in the semi-finals, but it’s still better than a series against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending NBA champions. They wouldn’t even have to think about them until the third round, at which point two other teams will have worn them down.
At this point, the best the Lakers can hope for (barring a miracle run at the last minute) is to finish third so they can secure home-court advantage and avoid their toughest battles until the second round. The good news is, they are currently tied with the Rockets for third, meaning this outcome is still very much a possibility for the Purple and Gold.
