The Pelicans host the Rockets at Smoothie King Center on Sunday, March 29, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Pelicans are 25-50 and 11th in the West, while the Rockets are 44-29 and sixth. The Pelicans are 16-22 at home, and the Rockets are 19-19 on the road.
The recent form is clear. The Pelicans have lost four straight after a 119-106 defeat against the Raptors on Friday. The Rockets stopped a two-game slide with a 119-109 win over the Grizzlies on Friday.
This is the fourth meeting of the season. The Rockets lead the series 2-1 after winning both games in their building, while the Pelicans took the first meeting in overtime at home.
For the Pelicans, Trey Murphy III is putting up 22.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Zion Williamson is at 21.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists.
Kevin Durant is averaging 26.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and Alperen Sengun is at 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists for the Rockets.
The setup is simple. The Pelicans need offense and cleaner starts. The Rockets need a win to stay in the safer part of the West race.
Injury Report
Pelicans
Trey Alexander: Out (G League two-way)
Hunter Dickinson: Out (G League two-way)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Josh Oduro: Out (G League two-way)
Trey Murphy III: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Dejounte Murray: Questionable (left hand contusion)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League two-way)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The first point is the paint. The Pelicans score 57.5 points in the paint per game, which is one of the best marks in the league. They also get 25.4 free throw attempts per game and post a low 12.1% turnover rate. That gives them a direct style on offense. They attack the rim, they get to the line, and they do not waste many trips. Against a Rockets team that does not force a huge amount of chaos and prefers to defend with structure, that is the cleanest Pelicans path.
The pace can help them. The Pelicans are at 104.3 possessions per game, while the Rockets play slower at about 100.9. If the Pelicans can push after makes and misses, they can keep Sengun and the Rockets’ half-court defense from getting fully set. That is important because this game gets much harder for the Pelicans if every possession becomes a slow read in the half court.
There is also a simple shot-distribution angle. The Pelicans score 61.6 points from two-pointers per game and rebound 53.3 balls a night. The Rockets are excellent on the glass overall, but the Pelicans can still put pressure on the rim if Williamson gets downhill early and if Murphy or Murray can play. When the Pelicans are at their best, they are not living only on jump shooting. They are forcing defenders backward.
The last thing is game flow. The Pelicans have already beaten the Rockets once in this building, and Reuters made clear that James Borrego wants Williamson attacking from the opening tip after another slow start on Friday. That is the right idea. If the Pelicans can score first, get the crowd involved, and avoid another bad opening quarter, this game can stay close much longer than the standings say.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets bring the better team profile into this game, and it starts with defense. They are fifth in defensive efficiency at 1.093 points allowed per possession. They also allow only 110.2 points per game, rank fourth in opponent assists at 24.8, and rank third in opponent rebounds at 49.2. This is a strong defensive base, and it is a bad matchup for a Pelicans team that is missing bodies and has scored only 106, 108, and 116 in its last three losses.
The rebounding edge is a big deal here. The Rockets lead the league at 58.2 rebounds per game. They are also fifth in points in the paint at 52.6 and top-tier on the offensive glass with a 34.9% offensive rebound rate. The Pelicans give up 45.5 rebounds a game and have let opponents score 119.3 points per game this season. If the Rockets win the glass the way they usually do, the Pelicans will have a hard time surviving the extra possessions.
The other edge is balance. The Rockets do not pass a lot for a good team. They are only 26th in assists per game. But they can still score in different ways. Durant gives them clean late-clock offense. Sengun gives them post scoring and playmaking. Amen Thompson adds rim pressure. Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard give them enough spacing around that core. The Pelicans can score, but the Rockets have more ways to stay stable over 48 minutes.
The recent series also says a lot. The Rockets have won two of the first three games, and they just got a needed road win over the Grizzlies behind Durant’s 25 points and 10 assists. The Pelicans have dropped four straight and have lost seven of their last eight road games, which tells you where the team is right now even before the injury questions. The Rockets simply come in cleaner on both sides of the ball.
X-Factors
Saddiq Bey is a real swing player for the Pelicans. He is averaging 17.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists while shooting 36.0% from three. If Murphy or Murray are limited, the Pelicans need Bey’s wing scoring even more. He can attack a bent defense, hit open threes, and give Williamson some help as a second scorer. If he has a strong game, the Pelicans’ offense looks much more normal.
Yves Missi is another important one for the Pelicans. He is at 5.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, plus 1.5 blocks. The Pelicans need his size because the Rockets are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. If Missi protects the rim and holds up on the glass, the Pelicans get a better chance to keep the game in reach. If not, the Rockets can pile up second chances very fast.
Jabari Smith Jr. is a key x-factor for the Rockets because he can stretch this defense without taking the ball away from Durant or Sengun. He is averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. The Pelicans already have trouble covering the whole floor when they help at the rim. If Smith hits open threes and rebounds his area, the Rockets become very hard to load up against.
Reed Sheppard belongs here too. He is at 13.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists with 38.5% from three. With VanVleet out, his role is bigger. The Rockets need his shooting and one more ball-handler to keep the offense clean when Durant rests. If Sheppard makes shots and avoids empty possessions, the Rockets’ bench minutes can swing the game.
Prediction
The Rockets are the better pick. Their defense is stronger, their rebounding edge is very clear, and they have already won two of the first three games in the series. The Pelicans can stay close if Williamson gets going early and if Murphy and Murray are able to give them real minutes, but over a full game the Rockets have more structure and fewer weak spots.
Prediction: Pelicans 109, Rockets 117
