The Celtics had this series under control. Then it got away from them fast. A 3-1 lead is gone, the 76ers have won back-to-back elimination games, and Game 7 now lands at TD Garden with real pressure on the No. 2 seed. The winner moves on. The loser gets an offseason full of uncomfortable questions.
Game 7 is set for Saturday, May 2, at 7:30 p.m. ET. Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in the series with 23.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, while Tyrese Maxey leads the 76ers with 26.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. The Celtics still have the better series scoring margin, but the 76ers have the momentum after two straight double-digit wins.
Game 6 was the real warning. The 76ers won 106-93, Maxey scored 30 points, Paul George added 23, and Joel Embiidhad 19 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists in his third game back from an emergency appendectomy. The Celtics shot 41.9% from the field, 29.3% from three, and only 56.2% at the line. That is not Game 7 offense.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Available (left calf stiffness)
76ers
No injuries reported.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics still have the deeper team and the home floor. That is the obvious part. The harder part is that they need to stop playing like the series will correct itself. The 76ers have made this a half-court fight, and the Celtics have not handled that pressure well enough over the last two games.
The Game 7 adjustment starts with pace into offense. In Game 6, the Celtics were fine early, leading 23-20 after the first quarter. Then the 76ers won the second quarter 38-26 and took control. The Celtics did not lose because they missed a few open threes. They lost because their offense became slow, predictable, and too dependent on Tatum and Jaylen Brown creating late in the clock.
Tatum also has to play through the defense faster. The 76ers are showing bodies, shrinking driving lanes, and forcing him into tougher decisions. If he holds the ball, the floor gets crowded. If he catches, attacks, and moves it early, the Celtics can get back to the spacing that carried them in their best games of the series.
The Celtics also need more from their guards. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard cannot just be safe. They have to create pressure, hit open threes, and punish Embiid when he is pulled away from the rim. The 76ers are not going to let Tatum and Brown walk into clean shots. Someone else has to bend the defense.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers have found the emotional rhythm of the series. That sounds simple, but it is real. They were down 3-1, then answered with a 113-97 win in Game 5 and a 106-93 win in Game 6. They are playing freer, faster, and with less pressure than the Celtics. George said after Game 6 that there is “no pressure” because the 76ers already know the situation: lose and go home.
Maxey is the biggest reason the series changed. He averaged 27.0 points through the first three games on a true shooting percentage of 48.8%. Over the last three games, he is averaging 25.7 points on 65.4% true shooting. That is the key difference. He is not just scoring. He is doing it efficiently, getting to the rim, making threes, and forcing the Celtics to chase him across the floor.
The other change is Embiid’s passing. He shot only 6-of-18 in Game 6, but his eight assists were more damaging than his scoring. The Maxey-Embiid actions are forcing the Celtics to choose between helping on Maxey’s drives and giving up kickouts. If Embiid keeps making quick reads, the 76ers’ offense can survive even if he is not fully explosive.
X-Factors
Paul George is the 76ers’ most important X-factor. He had 23 points in Game 6 and hit five threes. That is the version the 76ers need. If George is a real second-side scorer, the Celtics cannot trap Maxey or load up on Embiid without paying for it.
VJ Edgecombe gives the 76ers speed. He had 14 points and eight rebounds in Game 6, and his transition play helped break open the middle quarters. The Celtics have to stop his early offense. If Edgecombe gets easy points, the 76ers do not have to grind every possession through Maxey and Embiid.
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics’ cleanest bench swing. He already had a 32-point game in this series, but the Celtics need his shooting and pace more than the scoring number. When he plays fast, the Celtics get easier threes. When he is quiet, the offense becomes too wing-heavy.
Nikola Vucevic is a tactical piece for the Celtics. His spacing can pull Embiid away from the rim, and that opens driving lanes for Tatum and Brown. But he has to hold up defensively. If the 76ers attack him in space and force help, the Celtics may have to shorten those minutes.
Prediction
The 76ers have the momentum and the best guard in the series over the last three games. Maxey has changed the matchup, Embiid is giving them enough as a passer, and George looks comfortable again. Still, Game 7 at TD Garden is a different test. The Celtics are deeper, healthier, and too good to shoot that poorly again. I trust Tatum and Brown to respond, but it should be tight deep into the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Celtics 108, 76ers 103
