One of the most entertaining aspects of the NBA season is seeing the week-to-week overreactions to various results and performances from across the league. In keeping up with that spirit, I have come up with 10 massive overreactions to the first week of this season involving various teams, players, and coaches from around the NBA.
- 10. The Warriors Are Not Championship Contenders Without A Legitimate Big Man
- 9. The Chicago Bulls Are A Complete Disaster And Need To Be Broken Up
- 8. Trae Young Is A Problem For The Atlanta Hawks
- 7. The Los Angeles Clippers Are The Best Team In California
- 6. The Pelicans Are A Championship Contender With A Healthy Zion Williamson
- 5. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Offseason Moves Meant Nothing
- 4. Chet Holmgren Will Be The Rookie Of The Year Over Victor Wembanyama
- 3. Luka Doncic Is The 2023-24 MVP
- 2. The Boston Celtics Are The Team To Beat In The Eastern Conference
- 1. The Denver Nuggets Are Your 2024 NBA Champions
Some of these overreactions feature star players underperforming or exceeding expectations, teams that have massively disappointed, and way too early predictions for some of the NBA’s biggest awards. Seeing as most teams have played three games to this point, there is no other way to classify these takes than as overreactions to an extremely small sample size compared to the length of the NBA season.
From the MVP race to winless teams through the first week of the season, these are the 10 biggest overreactions so far in 2023-24.
10. The Warriors Are Not Championship Contenders Without A Legitimate Big Man
The Golden State Warriors made a flurry of moves this offseason that were aimed at getting back to being NBA championship contenders. So far in 2023-24, the team is 3-1 with victories over the Rockets, Pelicans, and Kings after suffering a loss to the Suns on opening night.
The team has gotten plenty of production from their core of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson with Curry leading the way with 33.5 points per game on 55/47/92 shooting splits. However, what is preventing them from being considered a true threat in the Western Conference this season is their lack of real production from their interior players.
Of course, Draymond Green missed the first two games of the season and is just getting back into the flow of things but this is more so about the center position. Starting center Kevon Looney is averaging 6.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in 27.7 minutes of play. Backup center Dario Saric is averaging 5.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.
While these numbers aren’t drastically bad, the Warriors will need much more from their interior lineup as the season goes on.
In the Western Conference, they have to deal with the likes of Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, and more. I talked with Ryan Verneuille from The Ryan Show FM/ Fox Sports Radio Rochester and explained more about why the Warriors will be in trouble because they lack skilled offensive big men.
At this moment, there isn’t a single big man on Golden State who will be able to slow these players down defensively or produce enough offensively to be the reason the Warriors are successful. If they do not address this lack of size and skill in the middle, I fear they are not yet to be taken seriously as playoff contenders.
9. The Chicago Bulls Are A Complete Disaster And Need To Be Broken Up
The issues with the Chicago Bulls go way beyond the three games they have played in 2023-24 but they are doing themselves no favors early on this season. After an opening night loss to the Thunder by 20 points, the players already had their first players-only meeting to discuss the blowout defeat. Players-only meetings are not a rarity over the course of an NBA season but they are virtually unheard of after just the first game of the season.
It seemed to work as the Bulls went on to get a spirited comeback win over the Raptors two nights later. Unfortunately, following their victory, the Bulls were blown out once again by the Detroit Pistons despite 51 points from Zach LaVine. Any time your star player gets you over 50 points and you do not win the game, it is a huge red flag.
Right now, the Bulls sit at 2-2 on the season. While DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine have looked decent to start the year, the rest of the roster has been sub-par. Nikola Vucevic is averaging 14.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game and no other player is averaging above 10.0 points per game. They are 24th in offensive rating and 17th in defensive rating as well. If these issues are not fixed and the Bulls do not start winning, the only course of action is to break it all down to build it back up again at a later date.
8. Trae Young Is A Problem For The Atlanta Hawks
Through three games this season, the Atlanta Hawks have been one of the worst teams to watch play. After starting 0-2 with losses to the Hornets and Knicks, they finally got their first win on Sunday over the Milwaukee Bucks in a 17-point rout and a comeback win over the Timberwolves on Monday. While the win over contenders are a nice momentum-shifter, there is a serious problem brewing with their star point guard Trae Young.
That problem is he has been extremely poor at shooting the ball and turning the ball over. Through three games, Young is averaging 21.3 points and 10.0 assists per game which looks good to the naked eye. That is until you realize he is shooting 31.0% from the field overall and 24.1% from beyond the arc. He is also giving the ball away 4.7 times per game, the second-most turnovers in his career thus far.
While I realize that Young is far too talented to allow this trend of poor shooting and carelessness to continue, I also realize that this has carried over from last season when he shot career lows across the board. With decent production coming from other players such as Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, and Jalen Johnson, Young absolutely needs to start picking things up and leading this team with better shot selection before the team begins to weigh their options about his future with them.
7. The Los Angeles Clippers Are The Best Team In California
As a team with a history of non-success and, in more recent times, horrendous luck with injuries, this take is as hot as it gets to start the 2023-24 season. The other California teams have been decent to start 2023-24 with the Kings and Warriors each at 2-1 while the Lakers have stumbled to a 1-2 start.
The Clippers have also begun the season 2-1, and with everyone healthy, have looked like they are gearing up for a serious championship run in 2023-24. Of course, this all relies on the health of both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George but so far, so good. Leonard is averaging 23.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.7 steals per game while George has been a man-possessed with 27.3 points and 2.7 steals per game on 54.9% shooting.
A welcomed addition to the team has been a virtual afterthought by many and that is Russell Westbrook. With his energy and leadership seemingly rubbing off on everyone in the organization, including the fans, Westbrook has rejuvenated his career when it was once thought he was near retirement. If the Clippers continue to trend in this direction, they will not only be the best team in California, but they could be the best team in the entire Western Conference.
On Monday evening, the Clippers added to their potential championship roster by acquiring James Harden and PJ Tucker from the Philadelphia 76ers. In exchange, they sent Nic Batum, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris, KJ Martin, and draft compensation to Philadelphia. This move shows the Clippers are serious about their championship window being open this season and are willing to make all the stars align for a deep playoff run.
6. The Pelicans Are A Championship Contender With A Healthy Zion Williamson
One of the biggest question marks facing the New Orleans Pelicans heading into 2023-24 was the health of Zion Williamson. Fans and the city itself have been anticipating what could be with a fully healthy Williamson for some time now after the fifth-year big man has played just 31 games since 2020-21.
Through three games in 2023-24, the Pelicans are 2-1 and it is in large part due to the play of Williamson. He is second on the team with 22.0 points per game while shooting a remarkable 57.1% from the field. Williamson’s play has also brought out some of the best play in his teammates. Brandon Ingram is averaging 22.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game and CJ McCollum is averaging 18.3 points and 6.0 assists per game.
With a healthy Zion Williamson and the NBA’s second-highest-rated defense, the Pelicans are absolutely a legitimate NBA championship contender. The only question is if Williamson can remain on the court enough to continue to lead them down that path.
5. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Offseason Moves Meant Nothing
Coming off an appearance in the 2023 Western Conference Finals, the Lakers knew they needed to address some issues with their roster during the offseason. They did just that by bringing back core members who helped them reach the Conference Finals last season such as Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura. They would also go out and acquire new players such as Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, Jaxson Hayes, and Christian Wood.
So far, these moves have not paid off in the slightest. Reaves and Russell have struggled mightily as return pieces, shooting well under 40.0% and failing to live up to their contracts. Other than Taurean Prince, the Lakers’ new additions have failed to make an impact as they started the season 2-2 with losses to the Nuggets and Kings while getting an extremely close win over the Suns without two of their stars on the court and a three-point win over the Magic Monday night.
The other concerning trend lies within their two star players, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This was supposed to be the season that James began to take a step back and rely more on Davis to carry the team through. Instead, due to Davis’ inconsistency, James has had to try and carry the Lakers in his 21st year at nearly 39 years old. While it may be an overreaction, this is nowhere near where the Lakers want to be right now, and without a significant improvement to their play, another trade deadline flurry could be looming for the purple and gold.
4. Chet Holmgren Will Be The Rookie Of The Year Over Victor Wembanyama
As the list gets closer to its end, the overreactions get bigger and more outlandish. While it is impossible to determine the outcome of any award race after three games, it is possible to make a general assumption.
The two most-hyped rookies heading into this season have been Chet Holmgren and French phenom Victor Wembanyama. Everything they do has been placed under a microscope for dissection including their play in just a few games to start their careers. Holmgren and the Thunder have been outstanding through four games, starting the season 3-1 while he averages 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game on 60.6% shooting. He looks equally good creating outside shots or working to the rim with a complete defensive game to add to his play.
As for Wembanyama and the Spurs, there have been a few growing pains. Wembanyama looks far too comfortable settling for the perimeter shots rather than using his 7’4’’ frame to work the interior. Through three games, the Spurs have struggled with a 1-2 record. Wembanyma has been decent though. He is averaging 15.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game on just 44.7% shooting. The concern is he is attempting over 4.0 threes per game while shooting just 23.1% from that distance.
With an impact that is clear, right now, Chet Holmgren is my choice for this season’s Rookie of the Year.
3. Luka Doncic Is The 2023-24 MVP
Picking a winner for the MVP award through just three games played is as ridiculous as it gets. There is no way of telling how the next 79 games will go or how the laws of nature can affect the rest of the season with injuries and bad slumps inevitable over the course of a full season.
Although these things are true, there is one player playing so well right now, that he has to be mentioned in the conversation as the frontrunner. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks have started their season a perfect 3-0 led by Doncic’s 39.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game on 55.6% shooting overall and 48.6% from three.
Doncic was toward the top of MVP conversations last season before the Mavericks’ epic collapse led to missing the playoffs. If they continue on this path, winning games, and Luka keeps playing out of his mind, Doncic will easily be named the MVP of the league, and right now, it isn’t particularly close.
2. The Boston Celtics Are The Team To Beat In The Eastern Conference
The only thing more outrageous than picking an MVP this early in the season is already anointing teams Conference champions or NBA champions. Through three games though, the Boston Celtics certainly look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
Through three games, the team is 3-0 led by their star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game on 55.4% shooting while Brown has added 24.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game on 49.1% shooting. While their star duo leads the way, it has been the new additions and role players who have put them over the top as Eastern Conference favorites thus far.
Kristaps Porzingis, who Boston traded in exchange for Marcus Smart this offseason, has come on strong with 20.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Jrue Holiday is also a new addition and off to a decent start with 12.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. The Celtics have built themselves a championship roster and look primed for another run to the NBA Finals but hopefully with better results than in 2022.
1. The Denver Nuggets Are Your 2024 NBA Champions
With a bunch of speculation surrounding the offseason they had this summer, the Denver Nuggets have cast aside all doubt of their ability to repeat. In convincing fashion, the Nuggets have started their 2023-24 title defense with a 4-0 record and wins over Western Conference Contenders such as the Lakers, Grizzlies, and Thunder.
Even more glaring than their convincing wins has been the production of the players not named Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. While one of the NBA’s best duos has been incredible to begin the year, one criticism they faced heading into it was the loss of role players such as Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson have helped Denver fill that void, and then some on both sides of the ball.
While there are 79 games left in the season with plenty of variables to still show themselves during the season, right now, the Denver Nuggets have to be the overwhelming favorites to repeat as NBA champions.
