With the 2023-24 season getting underway Tuesday Night, the conversation about who will be this year’s MVP is already heating up. While many have already made their preseason award predictions, including Fadeaway World, very few have discussed the likelihood that the top MVP candidates actually take home the award this season. Below, are 25 players we think will enter the MVP conversation at some point this season placed into tiers based on their actual chances of winning MVP in 2023-24.
There are obviously some names at the top that have been dubbed as most likely to win the award but how does the rest of the NBA measure up to those favorites? We have based these tiers on a player’s situation heading into the season with their expected workload, production, and team record taken into consideration. These 25 players are undoubtedly the players to watch out for in 2023-24 but only one will be able to call themselves MVP.
These are the 2023-24 NBA MVP candidates ranked by tiers.
Tier 5 – Better Luck Next Year
Trae Young
Jalen Brunson
James Harden
Domantas Sabonis
Anthony Edwards
Bam Adebayo
Pascal Siakam
Tier 5 kicks things off with seven NBA players who will undoubtedly kick up the conversation but will completely fall out of the race as the season progresses. Trae Young has been a proven scoring and playmaking machine over the last two years, leading the NBA in total scoring and total assists. Young’s efficiency and lack of defensive presence have been his two biggest Achilles heels over the last two seasons along with poor team performance, finishing near the bottom of playoff teams in the East. I expect Atlanta’s struggles to continue and even with spectacular numbers, Young won’t get much consideration.
Jalen Brunson had a magical first season in New York in 2022-23. He averaged 24.0 points and 6.2 assists per game. He led the Knicks to 47 wins and a first-round playoff win over the Cavaliers. As great as Brunson continues to be, the East got much more competitive while the Knicks remained stagnant as far as roster improvements go. If they remain a 47-win team or worse, it will not matter how good Brunson is, he will not get much MVP consideration.
James Harden is still a top player in the NBA in 2023-24 evidenced by his assists title in 2022-23 for the 76ers. However, Harden is once again heading into the season shrouded in drama and controversy. After a summer of back-and-forth between him and the franchise, Harden has been missing from practice for the last week. His behavior will not fare well with voters come time to cast their ballots and lack of continuity will likely keep him from playing the number of games needed to qualify or producing MVP-caliber numbers.
Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in rebounds in 2022-23 while averaging over 19.0 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. He helped the Sacramento Kings snap their 17-year playoff drought as well and pushed the Warriors to seven games in the playoffs. If the Kings are toward the top of the West once again, Sabonis could see MVP attention like he did last season. I would just expect much more of that attention to be focused on teammate De’Aaron Fox. Having an All-Star caliber teammate tends to hurt MVP cases much more than helping them.
Anthony Edwards is probably the most likely of any player on this tier to actually make a run for MVP. The Timberwolves franchise has clearly begun to tip in favor of being his for the foreseeable future but I think we are still a year or two away from Edwards being a legitimate MVP candidate. With Karl-Anthony Towns being fully healthy again, plays and touches will definitely go away from Edwards, leading to a minor drop in production if true. This will definitely keep him out of any MVP talk.
There is no doubt about Bam Adebayo being one of the best and most versatile defenders in the NBA. If this were a Defensive Player of the Year tier list, he may be among the favorites. When it comes to MVP talks, however, I think he just falls short of that conversation. It may be because his defense is so underrated as it is, but I do not believe he will garner enough attention among voters over teammates Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro to make an MVP case.
Pascal Siakam is the long shot of longshots to win MVP, but still worthy of mention. Siakam is an All-NBA talent who would easily be in MVP conversations if the Raptors were fighting for anything other than a play-in spot the last two seasons. In 2022-23, Siakam averaged 24.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game which should sit him firmly in the top 10 in MVP talks. However, the Raptors were just 41-41, ending any and all chances at that being a conversation. With how stacked the East has gotten, it may be impossible for Siakam to reach MVP status this season.
Tier 4 – Likely To Cool Off By The End Of The Season
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
De’Aaron Fox
Paul George
Jimmy Butler
Zion Williamson
Donovan Mitchell
Damian Lillard
The next eight players are names you are also likely to hear in MVP conversations way too early on in the season but either injury or other circumstances will slow them down. LeBron James is a perfect example of this heading into his 21st season in the NBA. James is the type of player these days to still be capable of monster numbers and leading his team to wins but only playing 50-55 games. As great as he and the Lakers will be when on the court, I fear injuries and age will be his biggest weakness in an MVP case after not getting a single vote in 2022-23.
Kawhi Leonard is another player who is among the elite two-way stars in the game today but only when he is available to play. After suffering another knee injury in the 2023 playoffs, Leonard heads into a pivotal season with the Clippers in which fans and ownership want to see results. While he may be healthy for 55-60 games while the Clippers remain cautious, it is likely his name will leave MVP consideration as the season goes on and he rests.
De’Aaron Fox is on the brink of Tier 3 if we are being completely honest with these rankings. The NBA’s reigning Clutch Player of the Year is coming off a season in which he led the NBA in clutch scoring and became an All-Star for the first time with 25.0 points and 6.1 assists per game. It just depends on what the Kings do as a team coming off a 48-win season. If they take a step backward, he will be out of the race completely. If they improve, his chances of being the MVP will be improved as well.
Paul George is in the same boat as his teammate Kawhi Leonard. When healthy, George is one of the best two-way players in the NBA, capable of All-NBA and All-Defensive First Team honors. Unfortunately, load management and injury have cost him too much time on the court over the last two seasons. I believe he will look like an MVP player for most of the season but as the end approaches, the wear of the season may catch up to him and take him out of the debate.
Counting out Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat is something that has made me look foolish over the last few seasons. Heading into 2023-24 though, I am confident placing Butler outside of the MVP conversation even coming off a run to the NBA Finals. First, the regular season hasn’t been anything spectacular for Butler and the Heat in recent memory, needing the play-in tournament to even advance to the playoffs last year. Second, I do think the presence of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will take away from Butler’s case even if they win a ton of games. Although MVP may be out of the question, I will not ever question Miami’s ability to get to the NBA Finals ever again.
As much as I would love to have him ranked higher, Zion Williamson has done nothing to show us he can be in MVP talks at this stage of his career. I mean, in 2021, he did average over 27.0 points per game on over 60.0% shooting but that is the absolute healthiest he has been since entering the NBA. Since then, he has played just 29 games in two years and needs to prove he can stay on the court before MVP is even a thought.
Donovan Mitchell is coming off a career season with the Cleveland Cavaliers in which he averaged a career-high 28.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting. As a matter of fact, with the Cavaliers’ fourth-place finish in the East, Mitchell remained a top 10 name in MVP talks late into last season. With contract talks dead between him and Cleveland right now and that looming over their heads, I believe it may hurt Mitchell’s chances at another MVP-like run. Although capable of getting top 10, Mitchell hasn’t shown the next gear that takes him into the elite company ahead of him in MVP chances.
Last, but not least on this tier, we have Damian Lillard of the Milwaukee Bucks. Lillard is also coming off a career season that saw him average 32.2 points per game. That production is likely to go down as he shares the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, and also without the burden of shouldering the bulk of the offensive workload. Lillard is capable of putting up MVP numbers but with the best situation he has ever been in, I expect a backseat to be taken in favor of competing for an NBA championship alongside Giannis as the best duo in the game.
Tier 3 – It Very Well Could Be Their Year
Devin Booker
Stephen Curry
Kevin Durant
Anthony Davis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The next five players are definitely within striking distance of an MVP award this season and are among the top 10 favorites for the award heading into 2023-24. Devin Booker is comfortably on this tier after showing in the playoffs that even with Kevin Durant by his side, he can put up MVP-like numbers. Booker’s efficiency and scoring ability should have him up there in MVP voting especially if the Suns’ Big 3 leads them to a 50 or more win season.
Stephen Curry should always be considered a top 10 MVP candidate for his ability to change the outcome of a game in seconds. In 2023-24, the Warriors’ success falls on his shoulders much more than in recent seasons after the Warriors made some moves this offseason to hopefully improve their chances. Another 50/40/90 season while getting the Warriors to a fourth seed or better should have him in the conversation at the season’s end.
Although Devin Booker has a good chance at MVP this season, his teammate Kevin Durant does as well. There is always the chance that Booker struggles or is unavailable due to injury. In the off-chance that happens, it will be Durant who is tasked with keeping the Suns atop the West standings. Another 29.9 points per game on 55/40/90 shooting splits would have any player regardless of their situation in the MVP conversation.
The 2023-24 season is about to tell us a lot about Anthony Davis. It will all be about his health and whether he is ready to take the reins of the team from LeBron James or not. If healthy and given the keys to the kingdom, Davis is easily a viable MVP option given his abilities on both sides of the ball. In last year’s playoffs, he was the best two-way player on the court in the entire NBA. Sustaining that over a whole season will have him grounded in MVP talks.
The final member of this tier is a longshot but one who has shown he is not to be underestimated. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young core and brightest future in the NBA and at the forefront of that is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In 2022-23, he became an All-Star and All-NBA First Team selection averaging 31.4 points per game. His efforts led the Thunder to the play-in tournament ahead of schedule. With the improving culture and play of Oklahoma City, and if the team wins a lot of games, Gilgeous-Alexander will be a legitimate MVP candidate.
Tier 2 – Knocking On The Door
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum
Joel Embiid
The three players who fall just shy of being favorites but are very much alive in MVP conversation make up tier 2. Luka Doncic had an incredible season with the Mavericks in 2022-23, averaging 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. The problem is, and it is the only thing that will keep him from being an MVP at any point, the Mavericks underperformed, collapsed, and missed the playoffs entirely. If Doncic can get the Mavericks to a top-four spot in the West with similar production, he will likely be the MVP.
Jayson Tatum had a great case to be MVP one year ago with the Boston Celtics. Tatum had the first 30.0 points per game season in Celtics history on 46.6% shooting. Despite the Celtics winning 57 games, Tatum’s MVP case was hurt by teammate Jaylen Brown’s All-Star season of 26.6 points per game and By Boston’s relinquishing of the top spot in the Eastern Conference. This year, with a better supporting cast, it may be impossible for Tatum to win the award. He could also go out there and wow the voters into giving them no choice in the matter with another season on the same level or better than in 2022-23.
Reigning MVP Joel Embiid falls to this level as well. Embiid put together a season to remember in 2022-23, winning his second straight scoring title with 33.1 points per game. He also earned All-Defensive Team honors while leading the 76ers to 54 wins. The issue I see with calling Embiid an MVP favorite for the second season in a row is this. The 76ers are in crisis mode after yet another collapse in the second round of the playoffs, the James Harden saga continues to rear its ugly head, and Embiid’s name is being brought up in serious trade talks. At some point, the drama kills a team’s spirit and the 76ers are holding on by a thread.
Tier 1 – MVP Favorites
Nikola Jokic
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Heading into the 2023-24 season, there are only two players who should be locked in as favorites for the MVP award. Nikola Jokic is somebody who very well could have won his third MVP award in a row last season, as he went on to prove in the NBA playoffs. Coming off his first NBA championship and Finals MVP award, Nikola Jokic is prepared to become just the ninth player in NBA history to win at least three MVP awards.
The other MVP favorite is another finalist from 2022-23, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Coming off a season in which Giannis led the Bucks to the first seed in the East with 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. After a disappointing loss in the first round of the playoffs to the Heat, the Bucks made the offseason’s biggest splash by acquiring Damian Lillard. This puts Giannis in a primed position to earn his third MVP award considering the attention Lillard can draw offensively.
When it comes down to this race for MVP, it is one of the many exciting storylines ahead of us in 2023-24. These 25 stars will be mentioned in one way or another over the course of the next 82 games. Only one of them can and will be named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player.
