This game looks clean on paper, but the injury report changes the shape of it. The Hawks host the Celtics at State Farm Arena on Monday, March 30, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Hawks are 42-33 and sixth in the East. The Celtics are 50-24 and second. The Hawks are 22-16 at home, and the Celtics are 24-13 on the road.
The recent form gives this game a little more edge. The Hawks beat the Kings 123-113 on Saturday and have won 15 of their last 17, while the Celtics beat the Hornets 114-99 on Sunday and have won three straight.
The season series already has some real context. The Celtics won the first meeting 132-106, the Hawks answered 117-106 in the second, and the Celtics took the third game 109-102 on Friday, so the Celtics lead the series 2-1.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson is averaging 22.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker is at 20.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown is putting up 28.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, and Derrick White is bringing 17.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
The setup is simple. The Hawks are trying to protect the last guaranteed playoff spot, and the Celtics are trying to hold the No. 2 seed while managing a back-to-back with Jayson Tatum out.
Injury Report
Hawks
RayJ Dennis: Questionable (G League two-way)
Keshon Gilbert: Questionable (G League two-way)
Jock Landale: Questionable (illness)
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair management)
Neemias Queta: Doubtful (right thumb sprain)
Ron Harper Jr.: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Derrick White: Probable (right knee contusion)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The first Hawks argument is the one that shows up all season in the numbers. They lead the league in assists at 30.3 per game, rank fourth in pace at 101.65, and sit sixth in three-point percentage at 36.8%. That matters in this matchup because the Hawks are at their best when the game keeps moving, and the defense has to make second and third rotations. Against a Celtics team on the second night of a back-to-back, that style can wear on the legs fast.
The Hawks also have a real scoring base. They are putting up 118.3 points per game overall and 118.1 points per game at home, and they have won 15 of their last 17. That is not just hot shooting for a week. It is a team playing with rhythm, playing with space, and getting enough creators involved to survive cold stretches. If the Hawks get into that home flow early, this can become a game the Celtics have to chase instead of control.
There is also a defensive case for the Hawks that is better than the raw reputation. The Hawks are 10th in defensive rating at 114.1, even if they still allow 116.4 points per game on the season. That gap matters because it points to a team that has enough structure to survive if it wins the possession battle. With Tatum out, the Hawks do not need a dominant defensive night. They need a solid one that keeps the Celtics from turning every half-court trip into clean secondary creation for Brown, White, and Payton Pritchard.
The injury picture gives the Hawks one more opening. The Celtics are without Tatum and Vucevic, with Queta listed as doubtful, and that puts more pressure on the remaining frontcourt rotation. The Hawks have not been an elite rebounding team over the full season, but their post-break surge has been built in part on improved work on the glass. If Onyeka Okongwu and Johnson can keep forcing help at the rim, the Hawks can make this game more physical than the Celtics probably want on tired legs.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The larger team profile still belongs to the Celtics. They rank second in offensive rating at 120.3, fourth in defensive rating at 112.6, and fourth in net rating at 7.7. That is the clearest argument in the matchup. Even with pieces missing, the Celtics still tend to play a cleaner brand of basketball than most teams because they do not need chaos to get efficient offense.
The next edge is on the glass and in ball security. The Celtics are fourth in rebounds at 46.4 per game, and they have committed the fewest turnovers in the league this season. That combination is a problem for the Hawks because it cuts off easy runout chances and gives the Celtics more control over the pace. If the Hawks do not create extra possessions, they have to beat one of the league’s best structure teams straight up in the half-court.
The Celtics also have proof in the matchup itself. They already lead the season series 2-1, and Friday’s game showed the exact script they would want again. The Hawks jumped out early, but the Celtics stayed organized, got a huge Pritchard game, and finished stronger in the second half. That matters because it showed the Celtics can survive the Hawks’ pace and still bring the game back to their preferred tempo late.
The road record is another reason to trust the Celtics more than a typical road team. They are 24-13 away from home, and they are coming in with three straight wins. Even with the injury list, the Celtics still have enough perimeter creation to attack a Hawks defense that allows 116.4 points per game. If the Celtics keep the turnover count low and make the Hawks score against a set defense, their half-court discipline can still be the most stable thing in the game.
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard is the first name here because this matchup already showed how quickly he can flip it. He is averaging 17.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists this season, and he just scored 36 against the Hawks on Friday. With Tatum out and White playing through a knee issue, the Celtics need Pritchard’s shot creation again. If he gives them another big bench scoring burst, the Celtics can survive the missing size and missing usage. If the Hawks keep him from getting downhill into pull-up threes, the Celtics lose a huge pressure valve.
Baylor Scheierman matters because the Celtics need his spacing more in this version of the roster. His line is modest at 5.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists, but he is shooting 38.6% from three. He is not going to dominate the ball, but he can punish the help that comes toward Brown and Pritchard. If Scheierman hits open threes and keeps the floor wide, the Celtics’ offense stays clean. If he does not, the Hawks can load up a little more aggressively on the main creators.
Onyeka Okongwu is the clearest Hawks x-factor because the frontcourt matchup is softer than usual for the Celtics. He is at 15.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists this season, and his ability to finish inside or make the short pass can pull the Celtics’ defense into more rotations than it wants. If Okongwu wins his minutes in the paint, the Hawks do not have to live only from the perimeter. If he gets neutralized, the Hawks lose one of their best balance points on offense.
Corey Kispert belongs in this section because this is the kind of game where one extra shooter can change the geometry. He is averaging 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 35.0% from three. The Celtics usually want to shrink the floor around primary actions and dare secondary shooters to make them pay. If Kispert hits those weak-side looks, the Hawks can keep the Celtics from fully loading the paint and can maintain the drive-and-kick rhythm that makes their offense dangerous.
Prediction
The Hawks are the better pick here. The Celtics still have the stronger full-season profile, and the numbers say that clearly, but this specific spot leans the other way. The Hawks are first in assists, fourth in pace, sixth in three-point percentage, and they score 118.1 points per game at home. Add in the back-to-back for the Celtics and Tatum being out, and this looks like a game where the Hawks have enough pace, enough creation, and enough home offense to finally take control late.
Prediction: Hawks 117, Celtics 112
