This one starts with a clear gap in the standings, but not with a quiet setup. The Spurs host the Bulls at Frost Bank Center on March 30 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Spurs are 56-18 and second in the West, while the Bulls are 29-45 and 12th in the East. The Spurs are 28-7 at home, and the Bulls are 11-25 on the road.
The recent form is even sharper than the records. The Spurs have won eight straight and just handled the Bucks 127-95 on Saturday. The Bulls lost 125-124 to the Grizzlies on Saturday and have dropped three straight and five of their last six.
The Spurs won the first meeting 121-117 on Nov. 10, so they lead the season series 1-0. Victor Wembanyama is putting up 24.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks, while De’Aaron Fox is at 18.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
For the Bulls, Josh Giddey has produced 17.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.2 assists, and Matas Buzelis is at 16.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists.
Injury Report
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League two-way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League two-way)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League two-way)
Bulls
Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe surgery)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Jaden Ivey: Out (left patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Anfernee Simons: Out (left ulnar styloid fracture)
Jalen Smith: Out (right calf sprain)
Mac McClung: Out (G League two-way)
Nick Richards: Questionable (right elbow sprain)
Guerschon Yabusele: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The first reason is simple. The Spurs have been one of the best two-way teams in the league all year. They rank fourth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are 23rd in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. That is a very big gap on both ends.
The Spurs also take care of the ball much better. They are fourth in turnovers per game at 13.4 and fifth in turnover percentage at 13.4%. The Bulls are at 15.1 turnovers per game and a 13.0% turnover rate on the matchup page, with far less margin because their offense is already thinner with several scorers out. In a game where the home team already has the better talent, giving away extra possessions is a dangerous way for the Bulls to live.
There is also a strong efficiency edge in the shot profile. The Spurs are eighth in effective field goal percentage at 55.7%, while the Bulls sit at 55.0%. That difference is not huge by itself, but the Spurs pair it with better rebounding, better free-throw pressure, and a much better defense. The Spurs sit at 55.7 rebounds per game, a 26.1% offensive rebound rate, and the Bulls are at 53.6 rebounds, with a 23.1% offensive rebound rate. The Spurs have more ways to win the possession battle.
The home setting makes it even harder for the Bulls. The Spurs are 28-7 at home and have been the best team in the league since February, going 24-2 over that stretch. The Bulls are 11-25 on the road and just lost a close game to a Grizzlies team that had dropped five straight before Saturday. This does not look like a good spot for an upset unless the Spurs play a very sloppy game.
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The Bulls’ best case starts with ball movement and tempo. They average 28.7 assists per game, which is one of the better numbers in the league, and they still have Giddey to organize the offense even with several scorers out. If he controls the game and keeps the ball moving side to side, the Bulls can at least stop the Spurs from turning this into a one-man show around Wembanyama.
They can also score enough to stay close if the outside shooting shows up. The Bulls have a 55.0% effective field goal rate and score 116.3 points per game. They are not an empty offense. The problem is that the defense has dragged them down all year. So the path is clear: the Bulls need a good shooting night, and they need to make this more of an offense game than a control game.
Another point is the first meeting. The Spurs won it, but only by four, and the Bulls already showed they can score enough in this matchup to keep it live late. That makes it easier to believe in an underdog when there is already one close game on the record. The Bulls are not the better team, but they do have enough creators to make the Spurs work if they avoid the bad turnover stretches.
The last thing is simple. The Spurs are on a big winning streak, and games like this can get loose if the favorite relaxes early. The Bulls do not have much margin, but Giddey, Buzelis, and Tre Jones are good enough to punish a slow start. For the Bulls, the only real route is to keep the score moving and make the Spurs earn the game in the fourth quarter.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is a big x-factor for the Spurs because he gives them another real creator next to Fox. He is at 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, and he is coming off a triple-double against the Bucks. If Castle gets into the paint and keeps the Bulls rotating, the Spurs get much harder to load up against.
Julian Champagnie is another one to watch. He is putting up 11.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.5 assists this season. His role is clean in this matchup. He spaces the floor, rebounds his position, and punishes help when defenses collapse on Wembanyama and Fox. Against a Bulls team that has struggled to finish defensive possessions, that matters a lot.
Tre Jones is a key swing piece for the Bulls. He is averaging 13.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. With Simons, Ivey, and Collins out, the Bulls need another steady ball-handler next to Giddey. If Jones can keep the offense clean and make good decisions in the half-court, the Bulls have a better chance to avoid the empty possessions that usually kill underdogs in this kind of game.
Nick Richards is a key one if he is available. He is at 9.4 points and 7.6 rebounds in 20 games for the Bulls this season. The Bulls need size badly in this matchup, and Richards is one of the few active bigs who can give them rebounding and some rim finishing. If he plays and holds up, the Bulls at least have a better chance to survive the Wembanyama minutes.
Prediction
The Spurs should win this game, and the gap in team quality is too large to ignore. They are fourth in offensive efficiency, third in defensive efficiency, fourth in fewest turnovers, and 28-7 at home. The Bulls still have enough playmaking to keep it respectable for a while, but their 23rd-ranked offense, 23rd-ranked defense, and long injury list make this a hard matchup against a team playing this well.
Prediction: Spurs 124, Bulls 111
