The Heat host the Bulls at Kaseya Center on Saturday, January 31, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET.
The Heat come in at 26-23 (7th in the East), the Bulls are 23-25 (10th in the East).
These two literally just saw each other, with the Heat taking the 116-113 win at United Center on Thursday, January 29, so the tone is already set, physical, tight, and a little chippy.
That result also puts the Heat up 1-0 in the season series, and now the Bulls have to flip it on the road with a banged-up rotation.
For the Heat, it starts with Bam Adebayo (18.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists) setting the floor and the tone, and Andrew Wiggins (15.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists) doing a bit of everything on the wing.
For the Bulls, Coby White (18.6 points, 4.8 assists) is the volume creator, and Nikola Vucevic (17.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists) is the stabilizer if he’s able to go.
This one matters because it feels like a swing game: the Heat can stack a mini-run at home (they’re 15-7 there), or the Bulls can steal one and turn this into a real two-team headache series.
Injury Report
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right costochondral; injury to the ribs)
Norman Powell: Out (personal reasons)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Davion Mitchell: Doubtful (left shoulder sprain)
Bulls
Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe sprain)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Tre Jones: Out (left hamstring strain)
Nikola Vucevic: Doubtful (rest)
Josh Giddey: Questionable (left hamstring; injury management)
Coby White: Questionable (right calf; injury management)
Emanuel Miller: Questionable (migraine)
Jalen Smith: Questionable (right calf tightness)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
First, the math of the matchup screams “home team.” The Heat are 15-7 at home, and they play with way more pace-control in this building. If the game gets ugly and slow, the Heat are comfortable living in that mud.
Second, the Heat’s profile is basically “score a lot, defend just enough.” They’re at 119.8 points per game, and while they allow 118.2, they also generate events: 9.0 steals (top-tier) and enough rim protection to bother non-elite shot creation.
Third, if the Bulls are missing even one of Giddey / White / Vucevic, their offense gets way more predictable. Heat can load up on the primary ball-handler and force the “okay, who else is making plays?” question. The Bulls already give up 119.7 opponent points per game, so if their shot-making drops even a little, it gets dark fast.
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The clean counter is shot quality and ball movement. The Bulls are at 47.6% from the field and 37.0% from three, and they move it: 29.8 assists per game is legit. If they’re even remotely healthy on the perimeter, they can win the “make-or-miss” swing that decides these kinds of back-to-back style matchups.
The Heat’s defense is also not exactly a brick wall this year. Allowing 118.2 points per game with opponents hitting a lot of threes (and the Heat giving up 39.7 opponent 3PA per game) means the Bulls can absolutely run into a hot night and make this look easy.
And if Nikola Vucevic surprisingly plays, the Bulls can drag Adebayo into more actions and try to make the Heat’s help defense show its seams. The Bulls having a true hub big is still a problem for teams that gamble for steals.
X-Factors
Heat’s swing guy is Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists). If he’s attacking early and forcing rotations, the Heat’s half-court stops feeling like “Bam or bust.” With Herro out and Powell out, the Heat need that second-side creator badly.
Then it’s Pelle Larsson (9.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists), because his minutes matter in these short-handed setups. He’s not just a “stand there” guy, he can actually make the extra pass and punish soft closeouts. If he hits a couple early, the Bulls can’t hide weaker defenders.
Low-key huge: Dru Smith (6.4 points, 2.7 assists, 2.6 rebounds). Not sexy, but if he keeps turnovers down and pressures the ball, the Heat can survive the missing guards without bleeding transition points.
For the Bulls, watch Matas Buzelis (14.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists). If he’s the best wing athlete on the floor and plays like it, the Bulls can steal the shot volume battle and flip the energy.
And if the Bulls need spacing gravity, it’s Kevin Huerter (11.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists). His shooting splits are shaky from three (31.1%), but he still bends the defense because teams respect the release. If he gets hot, the Heat’s “just enough defense” plan turns into panic.
Finally, if Jalen Smith (10.0 points, 6.9 rebounds) plays through the calf, he’s the piece that can win the Bulls the glass minutes when Vucevic sits. If he can’t go, the Bulls’ margin for error inside gets thin.
Prediction
I’m taking the Heat, mostly because the Bulls’ injury list is the kind that kills continuity, and the Heat at home have been steady enough to grind these out. Even without Herro and Powell, they have more ways to win ugly, and Adebayo should control the middle if the Bulls are limited at center.
Prediction: Heat 112, Bulls 106
