The Battle of Texas is back again tonight in Dallas, and the two teams could not be in more different places. The Houston Rockets roll into town at 15-5, fresh off a 117-98 win over the Phoenix Suns, where Kevin Durant became just the eighth player in NBA history to pass 31,000 career points, and Amen Thompson dropped a season-high 31. The Dallas Mavericks, meanwhile, are reeling at 8-16 after getting blown off the floor 132-111 by the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, a loss that snapped their modest three-game winning streak.
This is already the second meeting of the season between these two. On November 3, the Rockets handled the Mavericks 110-102 in Houston behind 27 points from Thompson and a 26-point, 11-rebound double-double from Alperen Sengun. That game looked a lot like what these teams have become since: the Rockets playing with pace, size, and structure; the Mavericks fighting to keep up.
The Mavericks’ numbers tell the story. They’re 8-16 overall, 3-7 on the road, and 5-9 at home, 12th in the Western Conference. They average 111.4 points per game but allow 116.4, getting outscored by more than four points a night on average. Defensively, they’re fine at 15th, not elite; offensively, they bleed as the 27th worst offense.
Friday’s loss in Oklahoma City was a perfect example. The Mavericks hung around early, then got run off the floor as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder poured in 132 points and turned the second half into garbage time. Cooper Flagg finished with 16 points but four turnovers, Anthony Davis managed just two points on 1-of-9 shooting in arguably his worst game ever, as he added 8 rebounds and 6 assists, but shot an abismal 11.1% from the field and was a -19 plus/minus. It was just the second time in his career that he played at least 10 minutes and finished with 2 points or fewer, the other coming in his rookie year against the Pistons, when he had 1 point and 8 rebounds in 17 minutes.
The Mavericks have interesting pieces. Flagg has flashed real star equity as a rookie, Davis is still capable of dominating stretches when healthy, and P.J. Washington gives them 16.0 points per night as a rugged forward. D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson, and Jaden Hardy can all score in bursts. The issue is how it all fits. Dallas sits around league-average in assists and near the bottom in offensive efficiency, which is a rough combo when you don’t have a Luka Doncic-type superstar to cover the gaps.
Now they have to deal with the Rockets on the second night of a back-to-back, with Davis banged up and several rotation players still nursing minor issues. Even if everyone plays, the Mavericks are walking into one of the most physical, relentless opponents in the league while already running on fumes.
The Rockets, on the other hand, have looked every bit like a contender. That win over the Suns pushed them to 15-5 and kept them firmly in second place in the West. For the season, they’re putting up 121.6 points per game while allowing just 109.7, giving them a double-digit average scoring margin.
Durant hasn’t slowed down at all. He’s still in that 25.2 PPG neighborhood and just casually dropped 28 on Phoenix while crossing 31,000 career points. Sengun has made the leap from fun young big to full-blown hub of the offense, averaging 23.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 7.1 assists. With his playmaking from the elbows and his improved three-point touch, he bends defenses in a way the Mavericks are not built to handle.
Then there’s Amen Thompson, who might be the swing factor in this matchup. Across the season, he’s sitting at 17.9 points with strong rebounding (7.1) and assist numbers (5.1), and his athleticism jumps off the screen every night. In the first meeting with the Mavericks, he put up 27; against the Suns, he just went for 31 on a back-cutting, rim-attacking clinic. His ability to pressure the rim against a Mavericks defense that often struggles at the point of attack could easily decide this game.
The Rockets also bring a serious advantage on the glass. They’ve built a reputation as one of the league’s best offensive-rebounding teams; last season, they led the NBA at 14.6 offensive boards per game, and this year, they’re back atop with 16.1 second-chance opportunities a night. With Sengun, Steven Adams, Jabari Smith Jr., and Clint Capela all crashing, the Rockets punish any softness in the paint.
Defensively, the Rockets have an identity. They give up just under 110 points per game, rotate hard, and use their length on the perimeter to blow up sets before they start. Reed Sheppard, Thompson, and the wings chase shooters off the line, while Durant, Sengun, and the bigs wall off the paint. That kind of connected defense is exactly what bothers a Mavericks team that already leans on tough jumpers and one-on-one creation.
Sure, the Rockets have their own nicks. Tari Eason is still out with an oblique injury, and a recent illness has bugged Sengun, though he looked fine versus Phoenix. But Houston’s depth has held up whenever Ime Udoka has needed to patch a hole.
Put it all together, and this game sets up as another uphill climb for the Mavericks. They’re coming off a draining loss, they’re still trying to figure out how Flagg, Davis, and the rest of the core truly mesh, and they’re facing a Rockets team that knows exactly who it is and how it wants to play.
The Mavericks have enough shot-making to get hot and make it interesting for stretches, especially if Davis bounces back and Flagg finds a rhythm early. But over 48 minutes, the numbers and the matchup lean heavily toward the deeper, more physical Rockets, better on both ends, and riding real momentum.
Prediction: the Houston Rockets keep rolling, control the glass, and pull away for a comfortable road win, while the Dallas Mavericks head back to the film room still searching for answers.
