The Warriors host the Lakers at Chase Center on Saturday, February 28, at 8:30 PM ET.
The Warriors are 31-28 and eighth in the West, with the Lakers at 34-24 and sixth. The home-road context is clean: the Warriors are 19-11 at home, while the Lakers are 18-12 on the road.
The Warriors last played Wednesday, a 133-112 win over the Grizzlies, while the Lakers arrive after a 113-110 loss to the Suns on Thursday. These teams have split the season series 1-1 so far.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is producing 12.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, with Moses Moody at 12.0 points and 3.4 rebounds. They are still missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and maybe Kristaps Porzingis again.
For the Lakers, Luka Doncic leads the league at 32.7 points to go with 7.8 rebounds and 8.6 assists, and Austin Reaves is at 24.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
Injury Report
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable (general illness)
Draymond Green: Probable (left low back injury management)
Lakers
Bronny James: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Adou Thiero: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Jaxson Hayes: Doubtful (right ankle sprain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors’ identity still starts with three-point volume. They lead the league at 45.4 three-point attempts per game (1st), which is the cleanest way to create separation when you’re missing primary creators.
They also generate those attempts through movement rather than isolation. The Warriors are 29.2 assists per game (3rd), which matters in a matchup where the Lakers can win stretches by forcing tough individual shots late in the clock.
On defense, the Warriors have been solid by the baseline scoreboard metric: 113.8 points allowed per game (11th). In a game that could bog down, that defensive floor keeps them from needing a perfect shooting night to stay attached.
The possession problem is the obvious one, and it is the risk that can erase everything above. The Warriors commit 15.6 turnovers per game (27th). If they give away 4–6 extra possessions, their three-point volume advantage stops mattering because they’re simply not getting enough shots.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers’ edge is shot quality and free throws, not volume threes. They’re at 56.8% effective field goal percentage (3rd), which is a strong indicator they can score without needing to win the three-point attempt battle.
They also live at the line. The Lakers average 26.7 free throw attempts per game (1st), which is the most reliable form of offense in a game that could feature long, grinding stretches.
The style contrast is clear in the attempt profile: the Lakers attempt 33.2 threes per game (25th). That typically means they’re comfortable winning on twos, free throws, and late-clock execution rather than trading shot-for-shot from deep.
The other key team number is that they do not rebound like a typical contender. They sit at 49.9 rebounds per game (29th). If the Warriors can turn missed shots into extra possessions, the Lakers’ efficiency advantage has to be sharp to hold up.
X-Factors
Draymond Green is the Warriors’ hinge because his minutes decide whether their offense is organized or improvised. Green is at 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and in this matchup the job is connecting actions into clean looks without feeding turnovers. If he controls tempo and keeps possessions clean, the Warriors can get to their volume threes without bleeding the ball.
Kristaps Porzingis is the swing spacer if he goes. Porzingis is putting up 16.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and his value is changing the geometry: the Lakers have to respect the pop and the shot, which can open driving lanes and cut lanes that don’t exist when the floor shrinks. If he’s limited by illness or can’t play, the Warriors lose their cleanest “easy offense” substitute for missing star creation.
LeBron James is the Lakers’ release valve because he still solves possessions when the game turns ugly. James has 21.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and the swing is whether he can stabilize the non-Doncic minutes and keep the Lakers’ offense from turning into empty trips against a defense that wants to run after misses.
Luke Kennard is the spacing lever. Kennard is at 8.1 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists while shooting 55.6% from the field, and his impact in this matchup is whether the Warriors can overload toward the ball without paying for it. If Kennard hits early catch-and-shoot looks, the Warriors’ help rules get tighter, and the Lakers’ shot quality improves across the board.
Prediction
I’m taking the Lakers. The Warriors have the home court advantage, but this matchup is about shot volume and the Warriors are missing their key stars. If the Lakers keep turnovers in check even slightly better than their norm, their star advantage is the easiest way to steal the road game.
Prediction: Lakers 112, Warriors 108
