If you’re one of the many writing off the Los Angeles Lakers after their 3-1 series deficit to the Minnesota Timberwolves, it’s time to check the math, because the odds aren’t as slim as they appear.
The narrative being pushed everywhere is that teams down 3-1 have just a 4.5% chance of coming back. That’s true in general, but it’s misleading in this particular case. The Lakers are not just another team down 3-1, they’re a team with home-court advantage and two generational playoff performers in LeBron James and Luka Doncic.
Here’s the real number: 9 out of the 20 teams that had home-court advantage while down 3-1 came back to win the series. That’s a 45% success rate, a massive leap from the misleading 4.5% stat. It’s not a miracle. It’s not a fantasy. It’s a real, tangible opportunity.
Game 5 will be at Crypto.com Arena. All the Lakers need to do is win that — and suddenly the entire pressure flips.
Suddenly, it’s Minnesota that’s feeling the weight of closing a series against two of the most dangerous playoff performers of this generation. One slip-up, and Game 7 looms, and nobody wants to see LeBron James in Game 7.
Let’s not forget: LeBron has the most Game 7 wins in NBA history. He’s 6-2 in those matchups and has averaged over 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists in those games. Luka Doncic, meanwhile, dropped 35 points in his only career Game 7, on the road while demolishing the 64-win Suns in 2022. These guys were built for elimination games.
Even the Lakers themselves know this series isn’t over. Luka has called it a “fun challenge” and insisted the series still has life. Dorian Finney-Smith reminded reporters postgame that LeBron has done this before and there’s no reason to doubt it can happen again.
The Lakers’ frustration is justified, too. The NBA admitted to a critical officiating error at the end of Game 4, confirming Jaden McDaniels tripped Luka Doncic with 33 seconds remaining. Luka should’ve gone to the free-throw line. Instead, he was forced to burn the Lakers’ last timeout, leading to a turnover on the inbound play.
That’s not a small swing. That could’ve decided the game, and we might be talking about a 2-2 series right now. And that was just one of several blatant referee mistakes that went against the Lakers down the stretch.
So don’t buy into the noise. The Lakers have work to do, but this isn’t David vs. Goliath. This is a 45% chance with LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Game 5 at home. Win that, and the Timberwolves will feel every ounce of pressure.
History may say the odds are low, but in this specific case, with this specific roster, and this specific context, the numbers say otherwise. The Lakers still have more than a puncher’s chance. They have a path. And if anyone can walk it, it’s LeBron and Luka.
