Who Will Be The Next American Born Player To Win The NBA MVP Award?

The best candidates for the 2024 MVP Award are Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Since 2018 (James Harden), players born in the USA have not won an MVP Award. In 2019 and 2020, Giannis Antetokounmpo won the awards, followed by back-to-back MVPs by Nikola Jokic. Last season, Joel Embiid won his first MVP award in 2023. 

At this moment, by looking at the latest MVP power rankings, the American-born player who has the best chance to win the award this season is Tyrese Haliburton. Ranking sixth in the MVP rankings, it seems nearly impossible for him to win the award this year, considering the aforementioned players ahead of him.

As a result, in our analysis, we will try to predict who will be the next American-born player to win the MVP award.

Eliminated Players

LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden

LeBron James, who just turned 39 years old this past week, continues to showcase his enduring impact on the game. However, his MVP prospects have dwindled due to a combination of age, sporadic game appearances (last played 65 games in the 2019-20 season), and sharing the court with a dominant force like Anthony Davis. The Lakers’ struggle to maintain a winning record further diminishes James’s chances of securing a fifth MVP trophy.

Still the greatest shooter in the world, Stephen Curry finds himself at a crossroads as he approaches 36. Despite averaging an impressive 27.3 points per game this season, Curry faces the challenge of carrying a Warriors team struggling to reach a .500 record. As age takes its toll, and the toll of the regular season mounts, Curry’s ability to sustain his production may decline, especially as he prioritizes playoff performance over the regular season.

Kawhi Leonard is another player who has grappled with injuries, preventing him from meeting the requisite number of games to contend for the MVP as he last played at least 65 games in the 2016-17 campaign. Additionally, Leonard’s indifference towards individual accolades further distances him from the MVP conversation. Similarly, Paul George, sharing the role of sidekick with Leonard (and now James Harden), faces the obstacle of not accumulating enough games and lacking the statistical firepower to sway MVP voters as he approaches 34 years of age.

James Harden, once a prolific scorer, has evolved into a playmaker with declining scoring averages of 17.7 points per game and 7.9 assists per game this season. This transformation signals a departure from his MVP-caliber scoring prowess, making it evident that his days as a frontrunner for the MVP award are over.

Possible But Unlikely 

Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young

Kevin Durant’s remarkable individual performance this season, with impressive scoring efficiency (29.9 points per game on 52.5% FG, 47.7% 3-PT FG, and 87.4% FT), places him as an honorable mention in MVP discussions. However, being a 35-year-old forward sharing the spotlight with talents like Devin Booker and Bradley Beal on the Suns presents a challenge. While Durant may continue to be a scoring juggernaut and lead his team to the playoffs, the competition and his age make it improbable for him to garner sufficient MVP votes.

Donovan Mitchell is a top-three shooting guard whose leadership capabilities haven’t translated into leading the Cavaliers to strong records over the past two seasons. Ongoing rumors about his potential departure from the franchise further cloud his MVP prospects. As Mitchell approaches 27, he faces stiff competition, and the question remains whether he can ascend to the level of the league’s top 10 players, a criterion often vital for MVP contention.

Trae Young consistently shows offensive prowess with impressive scoring and playmaking stats (28.3 PPG and 11.3 APG this season). However, the Atlanta Hawks’ struggle to secure wins, currently below .500, casts a shadow over Young’s MVP aspirations. Despite his individual brilliance, the lack of team success tends to hinder the respect and consideration he receives in the MVP race.

Realistic Possibilities

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is the best American player in the world right now and that is due to his elite offensive skill set. Posting 26.9 points per game this season, Tatum’s bag is truly bottomless because he can score in literally every way. The fact that he is the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference right now will help his MVP case this season and going forward. Winning the MVP this season will be difficult considering the players ahead of him, but at only 25 years old, he has nearly a decade ahead of him to come close to winning an MVP trophy.

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton has become a modern version of Steve Nash pretty much out of the blue. Posting 24.6 points and 12.8 assists per game this season, there isn’t a better dual-threat from the guard position in terms of scoring and playmaking. Nash ended up winning two MVP awards, so there is a great chance the current Pacers star will win at least one over the next decade. The key to Haliburton’s success in the MVP race is getting enough wins with the Pacers, although that might be a front-office problem as more talent on the court could be needed.

Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards is the real deal and will only continue to get better. Some holes in his game include perimeter defense and closing games, but that will come in time. Edwards is averaging a career-high 26.3 points per game this season and he will one day get to the 30.0 mark at some point in the next decade. The current leader of the Minnesota Timberwolves is only 22 years old so time will not be a problem as he looks to be one of the faces of the NBA in due time. Can Edwards be the first player since Kevin Garnett to win an MVP with the Timberwolves? Time will tell.

De’Aaron Fox

A speedy point guard, De’Aaron Fox has blossomed into one of the best players in the league and a top-10 MVP contender this season. Fox is averaging 30.0 points and 6.1 assists per game this season and he has been behind the 1st-ranked offense last year and 8th-ranked offense this season. The Kings’ star is getting better with the ball in his hands and is shooting 40.3% from three so signs of an improving outside shot are three which was the main aspect of his game that needed improvement.

Ja Morant

The only player in Ja Morant’s way is Ja Morant. His behavior off the court has been rather silly, undergoing a 25-game suspension this season. The explosive guard is a highlight-reel waiting to happen and he can make the Memphis Grizzlies a legitimate contender to one day make the NBA Finals. Consistency will be the key for Morant who seems to be struggling with the fame and immense wealth he is generating as a basketball superstar. As long as he continues to mature, Morant will be a perennial MVP candidate.

Anthony Davis

Once LeBron James rides off into the sunset and calls it quits on a Hall of Fame career, Anthony Davis will be the man for the Los Angeles Lakers. He came close to winning an MVP award in the 2017-18 season, finishing third behind James Harden and LeBron James, so there is no reason to believe he can’t come close again. The problem is that Davis’ production seems to wane and without a leader like LeBron to push him, he might not be a superstar again. If Davis plays like he has been playing this season, he can be an MVP candidate, however.

Devin Booker

Devin Booker is just getting started as he is only 27 years old and has an NBA Finals appearance under his belt. The shooting guard hasn’t exactly been healthy in recent seasons, playing only 53 games last season and 23 so far this season. Booker is an elite offensive player but playing with Kevin Durant could hurt his MVP chances going forward. Even with Durant by his side, Booker can lead the league in scoring if he truly wants to because getting buckets is easy for him. While Booker’s chances for the MVP seem slim going forward, it is still possible considering his age and room for improvement.

Only 7 American Players Have A Chance To Win The MVP Award

In the end, it seems that only seven American-born NBA players have strong chances to win an MVP trophy. Jayson Tatum is the one player who has very strong odds while stars such as Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, and Ja Morant have MVP potential. The problem is, that none of these players come close to the leading candidates in the NBA right now including Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. These five stars will be the best players in the NBA for at least the next five years and it is hard to imagine them being usurped in MVP conversation.

Even budding superstar Victor Wembanyama is coming for the top spot in the league and is off to a terrific rookie campaign averaging 18.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game. The Frenchman will soon be among the best players in the world and he will absolutely be a perennial MVP candidate moving forward. That leaves a landscape for American players to fight for their spots, and they might not get there. With so many elite non-American players in the NBA, it might be a long time until one of the seven best gets a chance to win an MVP trophy.