On Friday, November 3, the NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament began with seven games counting toward group play. All 30 teams have been placed into three groups in each Conference based on their 2022-23 regular season record. Those groups are as follows:Â
East Group A – Indiana Pacers (1-0), Philadelphia 76ers (0-0), Atlanta Hawks (0-0), Detroit Pistons (0-0), Cleveland Cavaliers (0-1)
East Group B – Milwaukee Bucks (1-0), Miami Heat (1-0), New York Knicks (0-1), Charlotte Hornets (0-0), Washington Wizards (0-1)
East Group C – Brooklyn Nets (1-0), Boston Celtics (0-0), Orlando Magic (0-0), Toronto Raptors(0-0), Chicago Bulls (0-1)
West Group A – Portland Trail Blazers (1-0), Phoenix Suns (0-0), Los Angeles Lakers (0-0), Utah Jazz (0-0), Memphis Grizzlies (0-1)
West Group B – Denver Nuggets (1-0), Los Angeles Clippers (0-0), New Orleans Pelicans (0-0), Houston Rockets (0-0), Dallas Mavericks (0-1)
West Group C – Golden State Warriors (1-0), Sacramento Kings (0-0), Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0), San Antonio Spurs (0-0), Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1)
Each team will play the other four teams in their group once to determine a winner of the group to advance to the knockout stage. Joining the three group winners in each conference in the knockout stage will be one runner-up from each conference with the best record in tournament play. If there is a tie, the tiebreaker will go to the team with the best record in head-to-head matchups in group play.
The Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Championship rounds will all be single-elimination games until the winner of the NBA Cup is determined in Las Vegas on December 9. All games will be played in NBA markets except for the Semifinals and championship. Also, all tournament games will count toward teams’ regular season record aside from the championship on December 9.
Today, we will count down the 10 teams with the best chances to take home the first-ever NBA Cup based on their play so far in 2023-24 and the matchups ahead in group play. These 10 teams are the overwhelming favorites to come out of their groups and forever be known as the first team to capture the NBA Cup.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have stumbled out of the gate during the 2023-24 season to a 3-5 start. Although there are many reasons for the slow start, injuries are the biggest issue with solid role players all out for different amounts of time. Jarred Vanderbilt, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, and Gabe Vincent are all expected to miss several games including their opening group play match against the Phoenix Suns this Friday.
Despite the obstacles before them thanks to these injuries, the Lakers have a legitimate shot at winning this tournament thanks to the duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. When playing at their best, the Lakers look like a championship unit ready to take on any challengers who stand in their way. Their toughest matchup will be the Suns who will possibly have both Bradley Beal and Devin Booker back in their lineup for Friday’s game. If the Lakers can pull off the win on Friday against Phoenix, the rest of the group should be an easy path for them to go undefeated in group play.
The reason for that is the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Utah Jazz have all struggled mightily to begin the season with a combined record of 6-19 between them. Portland has matched the Lakers’ record of 3-5 to begin the year while Memphis is 1-7 and the Jazz are 2-7. These are games the Lakers must win as they navigate the battered and bruised start of the season. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis having the start to the 2023-24 season they have had so far, it is not far-fetched to predict the Lakers coming out of this group and winning the entire tournament in the end.
9. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have gotten off to their best start as a team in the last 15 seasons, going 6-2 over their first eight games led by early-season MVP candidate Luka Doncic. Unfortunately, their lone loss came to the Denver Nuggets in group play last Friday, and taking down the defending champions is a tall task when Dallas has nobody that can match up with reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic.
This means that Dallas’ best chance at advancing in the tournament will come as the team with the best record in group play as runner-up. This Friday, they will take on the Los Angeles Clippers in a star-studded game that will feature the Clippers’ new-look lineup featuring James Harden in what will be their third game together. If Dallas can defeat the Clippers, their road to the runner-up spot gets much easier.
This leaves the New Orleans Pelicans and Houston Rockets as their remaining opponents. The Pelicans will be the tougher of the two matchups with a healthy combination of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram in the frontcourt. The Pelicans will be missing C.J. McCollum for an unknown period of time, giving Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving the upper hand in that matchup. The Rockets should be a victory for Dallas who is clicking on all cylinders as opposed to a young Houston team still getting used to their new rotations. A 3-1 record for Dallas in group play should get them into the next round fairly easily.
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers are at an advantage right now before heading into their first game of group play this Friday against the Dallas Mavericks. They have already had two warm-up games with their new lineup featuring new acquisition James Harden heading into the highly-anticipated matchup which should make for a riveting contest with six of the NBA’s premier stars sharing the court and doing battle.
The Clippers’ toughest two games of this tournament will be the Nuggets and Mavericks. If they can pass the test against Dallas on Friday, they will only have to get past Denver to secure a real shot at advancing in the tournament. There will be several matchups to watch against Denver such as the battle of Ivica Zubac and Nikola Jokic as well as how much the loss of Jamal Murray will prevent Denver from matching the offensive firepower of the Clippers with Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard.
As for the rest of the group, the Clippers will match up extremely well with the Pelicans and Rockets. In what should be two wins, their toughest test will be a relatively healthy Pelicans squad playing some of the best team defense in the NBA right now. The Clippers will be doomed should they drop one of these two games assuming they fall to Denver as well. Two losses likely take them out of contention in this group.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
No. 7 on our list of favorites to win the In-Season Tournament with a team that is no stranger to high-pressure situations. The seventh spot may be a little low for the current No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference but they still have a lot to prove in this very young 2023-24 season.
After the drama of another tumultuous offseason, the 76ers have gotten off to a hot start thanks to reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the emergence of Tyrese Maxey as a true starting point guard. The duo has the 76ers firing on all cylinders to begin the season with just one loss under their belt through seven games.
The only reason I do not have them any higher than No. 10 is because I tend to not trust their track record in high-pressure situations like the NBA playoffs or a single-elimination tournament format. The Sixers could and should get out of their group unscathed but will likely struggle moving on in the tournament. However, if Maxey continues to play at an elite level and supporting players like Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris continue to back them up to perfection, they could easily be the team hosting the NBA Cup in December.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best young teams in the Western Conference at this point in the season thanks to the young trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Josh Giddey leading the way. The Thunder can attack opposing defenses from all angles, shelling out 117.4 points per game as a team to start the year.
Of course, their hopes of winning the tournament were dealt a setback last Friday in their riveting two-point loss to the Warriors. Despite the loss, it should be noted that the team was without Gilgeous-Alexander and nearly pulled off the win anyway while on the road against a very hot Warriors team led by Stephen Curry’s torrid scoring and shooting. This leaves the Kings, Spurs, and Timberwolves in group play for the Thunder to get through, all winnable games by any metric.
Even though the Thunder are a young and inexperienced squad, the talent is undeniable and worthy of being named as one of the 10 favorites to win the NBA Cup. An All-NBA talent and one of the most talented rookies in recent memory should at least get them through the group stage but their match could be met going up against the likes of the Nuggets, Suns, Lakers, or Warriors in the later rounds. This team has shown enough through seven games to be considered resilient though, and are not to be counted out just yet for this tournament.
5. Phoenix Suns
The next five teams are the five that should truly be considered as heavy favorites to be playing in Las Vegas for the tournament championship come December 9. As of this moment, we have yet to see the Phoenix Suns in their most powerful form with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker sharing the court for exactly zero minutes in 2023-24. With Beal set to return Wednesday and Booker day-to-day, that time is coming and it could come as soon as their opening group play matchup against the Lakers on Friday.
When fully healthy, this Suns trio is going to be the most difficult offensive group to defend by a longshot. Durant is already off to a hot start while Beal and Booker’s track record has shown us the explosive scores they are as well. Defense is a concern for such a high-powered offense but in any shootout, Phoenix has to be considered the favorite regardless of who is opposing them.
The Suns can win the NBA Cup on the back of their offensive trio but their role players have had great starts to the season as well. Jusuf Nurkic is settling into his role as a defensive force on the interior and role players such as Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, and Josh Okogie have been reliable when called upon also. Led by their high-scoring trio, the Suns are one of the five teams I can comfortably name as a serious favorite to win this tournament but only if their health is maintained for its entirety.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
While much has been said about the Milwaukee Bucks’ start to the 2023-24 season, the firepower of the duo of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo is just too much to ignore. The Bucks have struggled somewhat in their early-season matchups, mostly due to their perimeter defense taking a hit thanks to the departure of Jrue Holiday. Despite this setback, they have to be considered one of the favorites for the NBA Cup.
The Bucks kicked off their In-Season Tournament with a five-point win over the New York Knicks last Friday, 110-105. With the win over the Knicks, this leaves Milwaukee’s next three tournament games are against the Heat, Hornets, and Wizards. Now, the Hornets and Wizards have been hard to watch to start the 2023-24 season with a 4-10 combined record. These should be wins for the Bucks although nothing will come easy at any point during this tournament with $500 thousand on the line.
The game that I am sure Milwaukee and most NBA fans have circled is the one ahead against the Miami Heat. This will be the Bucks’ toughest game of group play as they look to avenge last year’s devastating playoff loss to the Heat in the first round. If the Bucks can get past the Heat, their path to the NBA Cup gets a whole lot easier with only the Celtics and 76ers standing in their way in the Eastern Conference.
3. Golden State Warriors
Once again, after being doubted by nearly every personality within the NBA community, the Golden State Warriors have started out red-hot to begin the 2023-24 season despite drastic changes to their roster this offseason. Golden State was able to squawk out a win over the Thunder in their first game of group play last Friday behind 30 points from Stephen Curry and 20 points from Dario Saric off the bench.
While the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green remains intact, the biggest question mark facing the Warriors was their depth along with the addition of Chris Paul to their lineup. So far, Paul has been incredible for the Warriors off the bench with 8.8 points and 7.3 assists per game in nearly 30.0 minutes of play.
While Curry is averaging 30.0 points per game right now, other supporting members of this Warriors squad have been essential to their 6-3 start to the season. Klay Thompson remains the team’s second-leading scorer with 16.4 points per game while Jonathan Kuminga has been tremendous in an increased role off the bench with 12.4 points per game. Thanks to the MVP-level play from Curry and the depth being an advantage rather than an issue, I am comfortable saying that the NBA Cup could be headed to The Bay this season.
2. Boston Celtics
The next two teams sit atop our list as the class of each conference and my exclusive picks to meet in the NBA Cup Finals in December in Las Vegas. The Boston Celtics have come out on fire to start 2023-24 with a 5-2 record through seven games thanks to their loaded offense producing a miraculous 120.6 points per game.
Jayson Tatum, Boston’s likely MVP candidate, is averaging 28.4 points per game on 53.7% shooting to start the season for Boston, and Jaylen Brown has been his partner-in-crime with 21.4 points on 43.8% shooting. New arrival Kristaps Porzingis has been tremendous to start the season as well with 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game.
The support of Boston’s backcourt has been the real story here with the combination of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White looking nearly unstoppable on both ends of the floor. White has carried over his success from last year’s playoffs to the start of this season with 16.4 points, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game while Holiday has fit right in with the Celtics’ culture playing lockdown perimeter defense against some of the best guards in the NBA. The Celtics’ complete roster makes them an early favorite for the NBA Cup this season and quite possibly the only team that can take down the team that sits at No. 1.
1. Denver Nuggets
The defending champion Denver Nuggets are the biggest favorite to win the inaugural In-Season Tournament. Of course, the biggest reason they received the selection for the No. 1 spot is the presence of the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. After leading the Nuggets to their first title in team history, Jokic has begun the 2023-24 season on a mission with 29.1 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game to lead Denver to an early 8-1 record.
The most significant blow to their chances at winning the NBA Cup is going to be the injury to Jamal Murray which will keep him out for most of group play. Luckily, the Nuggets captured their first win in this format over the Mavericks last Friday which will be their toughest test at the group stage. However, with the culture Denver has built in such a short time, the supporting cast has stepped up and showed out in his absence.
Aaron Gordon has continued his defensive dominance of opposing teams with 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Michael Porter Jr. has found a serious rhythm to start the year as well with 16.0 points per game. The real difference for Denver has been their bench led by Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson. Zeke Nnaji and Julian Strawther have also been solid bench pieces for coach, Michael Malone, early this season. Denver is just too deep and too in sync to be considered anything but my pick to win the NBA Cup at this point.Â
