The Golden State Warriors host the Orlando Magic at Chase Center on Monday night, with tip set for 7:00 PM.
The Warriors come in at 14-15, sitting eighth in the Western Conference. The Magic are 15-12, sixth in the East.
This is also a straight-up revenge spot. These teams already played once this season, and the Magic won 121-113. Stephen Curry still went off in that one, dropping 34 points, and Jimmy Butler III added 33, but it didn’t matter because the Magic controlled too many of the “winning” areas.
Curry has been doing Curry things all year, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting 47.5% from the field. For the Magic, Paolo Banchero has been the main engine at 20.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game.
Injury Report
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left glute, injury management)
Al Horford: Out (right sciatic nerve irritation)
Magic
Franz Wagner: Out (left high ankle sprain)
Moritz Wagner: Out (left knee, injury recovery)
Jalen Suggs: Doubtful (left hip contusion)
Tristan da Silva: Questionable (right shoulder contusion)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The first edge is simple: the Warriors have played like a different team at Chase Center. They’re 8-4 at home, and that matters against an opponent that loves to win with physicality and composure.
The second edge is that the Warriors finally found something offensively with Butler’s usage. When the Warriors lean into getting him touches and letting him attack, the whole offense looks less stuck, and it takes pressure off the “Steph bailout” possessions that can get predictable late.
Butler is averaging 19.8 points this season on 51.5% shooting, and the wild part is he’s been hitting 44.2% from three, which changes the spacing math when teams try to load up.
Then there’s the one thing that decides almost every Warriors game right now: turnovers. This team averages 16.3 turnovers per game, and when they get sloppy, they basically light themselves on fire.
But the flip side is encouraging, because they’ve been dramatically better when they simply keep it under control. The Warriors are 10-3 when they commit the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent, and 3-12 otherwise. That’s not a random stat. That’s the entire season in one sentence.
This matchup also lines up with what the Warriors can emphasize defensively. In the first meeting, the Magic bullied them at the rim and lived in the restricted area. That’s the obvious adjustment point, and it’s also where a locked-in Warriors effort can actually swing the game, because the Magic isn’t built to win purely as a bombing three-point team.
If the Warriors protect the paint better and force more jumpers, that’s where the game tilts.
So the Warriors’ advantage is a combo: home-court stability, Butler’s offensive role trending the right way, and a clear blueprint that’s less about “scheme genius” and more about playing clean.
Why The Magic Have The Advantage
The Magic advantage starts with style. They want to turn this into a rock fight, win the paint, win the glass, and make you score over bodies. And even with their injuries, that identity still travels.
They’ve also quietly been more dangerous on the road than people assume. The Magic are 6-7 away from home, and that’s a respectable mark for a team that plays a defense-first brand and doesn’t rely on perfect shooting to compete.
The second edge is that the Warriors’ biggest weakness is exactly what Orlando likes to attack: mistakes. The Warriors’ turnover problems aren’t theoretical; they’ve literally had games recently where giveaways decided the outcome.
If the Magic can speed the Warriors up, get hands-on passes, and create live-ball chances, they can steal points without having to run pristine half-court offense for 48 minutes.
There’s also a very specific matchup angle: the Magic can punish teams inside, and the numbers say they’re not afraid to live there. The Magic are allowing 52.5 opponent points in the paint per game, which tells you they’re constantly in paint battles on both ends, not finesse games.
That brand matters against the Warriors because it’s the exact spot that bothered them in the first meeting, and it’s the kind of thing that can show up again if the Warriors don’t match the physicality.
The swing factor is health, obviously. If Jalen Suggs can’t go, the Magic lose one of their best point-of-attack defenders and a big chunk of the “annoy you for 94 feet” energy.
But even without him, the Magic already proved they can win this matchup by staying disciplined, attacking the rim, and making the Warriors pay for loose possessions.
Warriors vs. Magic Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors, mostly because of the home factor and because they should be hyper-aware of what went wrong the first time.
The Magic can absolutely make this uncomfortable, but if the Warriors keep the turnovers in check and don’t give up easy paint points, it feels like a “Warriors grind-it-out” type of win.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Magic 112
