The New Orleans Pelicans host the Dallas Mavericks at Smoothie King Center on December 22, and it’s a weirdly spicy rematch because these teams have already traded punches twice.
The season series is tied 1-1, with the Pelicans winning 101-99 on November 5 and the Mavericks answering with a 118-115 win on November 21.
The Mavericks come in at 11-18, and the Pelicans are 7-22, with both teams sitting in the bottom half of the Western Conference standings.
This matchup is also a clean “stars vs. situation” game. Anthony Davis has been the Mavericks’ steady anchor at 19.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 50.9% from the field.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is still the headline name, putting up 21.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game on 51.1% from the field.
The other big note is that both teams have a scoring partner who can swing the whole vibe. Cooper Flagg leads the Mavericks at 18.8 points per game, while Trey Murphy III leads the Pelicans at 21.2 points per game.
Injury Report
Pelicans
Dejounte Murray: Out (right Achilles, rupture)
Trey Alexander: Out (G League, two-way)
Hunter Dickinson: Out (G League, two-way)
Herbert Jones: Questionable (head, migraine)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee, surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot, surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee, surgery)
Cooper Flagg: Questionable (back contusion)
Klay Thompson: Questionable (left knee soreness)
Max Christie: Questionable (illness)
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans’ best argument is momentum and style. They’ve finally looked like a team with an identity over the past week, ripping off a four-game win streak and doing it with real physicality instead of “pray the threes fall.”
That last win was a perfect example of what their ceiling looks like when they’re locked in. They put up 128 points, bullied the paint, and lived at the free-throw line, with Zion dropping 29 in just 23 minutes and the Pelicans scoring 70 points in the paint against the Pacers.
That’s the formula. When they turn the game into a rim-and-free-throws grind, the opponent has to match force, not finesse.
It also helps that the Pelicans have been getting real production from their young core and bench. Derik Queen has quietly become a stabilizer, and he’s coming off back-to-back double-doubles, including 17 points on perfect shooting with 10 boards against the Pacers. That kind of efficiency matters against a Mavericks team that can get into foul trouble up front if the Pelicans keep attacking the rim.
The other sneaky edge is ball pressure. The Pelicans sit at 9.1 steals per game, and they’ve been using those live-ball moments to get easy points instead of trying to execute half-court sets for 48 minutes.
If they can speed the Mavericks up early, the building gets loud and this turns into the kind of messy game the Pelicans actually want right now.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ case is simpler: they’re the more stable team on both ends, and they have the kind of frontcourt that can survive almost any matchup, even when the backcourt is banged up.
On the season, the Mavericks are allowing 116.9 points per game, which isn’t elite, but it’s still a different universe from a Pelicans defense giving up 122.5 per game.
That defensive gap is the whole swing. If the Mavericks play a normal game offensively, they don’t need a perfect shooting night because the Pelicans have been bleeding points all season.
This is also where the Mavericks’ rim protection and size show up. They average 6.2 blocks per game compared to 3.7 for the Pelicans.
That’s not just a stat, it’s a shot-profile problem for the Pelicans. If the Mavericks can take away clean rim finishes and force more mid-range attempts, the Pelicans’ offense gets a lot shakier possession to possession.
And even with the injuries, the Mavericks have been playing better basketball lately than the raw record suggests. They’re 6-4 in their last 10, and they’ve had stretches where their defense and rebounding travel well enough to win on the road.
The swing factor is Flagg’s status. If he plays, the Mavericks have another two-way problem on the floor who can score, rebound, and switch across positions, which makes the matchup math much harder for the Pelicans.
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Prediction
I’m taking the Mavericks, but it’s not a “walk-in and coast” kind of pick. The Pelicans are playing with real confidence right now, and their paint pressure can absolutely make this uncomfortable.
Still, the defensive gap feels like the deciding factor, and the Mavericks have more ways to win if the game gets ugly late.
Prediction: Mavericks 117, Pelicans 112
